Last year, I couldn’t keep my previews going. In the mess of film study and with questions about what I wanted my articles to look like, I instead sank into the season and experienced major disappointment about how it turned out. Pretty awful for a Dolphins fan: Vic Fangio left the team and immediately won a Super Bowl, Josh Allen kept his stranglehold on the division and looked like the best QB in the league en route to an MVP, and the Dolphins ran into a brick wall of the same old mediocrity. Tua injuries, a broken run game, and an exhausted and overmatched defense with cranky vets kept me bummed more weeks than not (hello, 8-9). The last time I did league predictions was 2023. That year, I picked just 3 of 8 division winners correctly, and just 7 of 14 playoff teams. My biggest miscalculations:
Winning Teams: Houston and Tampa Bay won 6 more games than predicted; Indianapolis and LA Rams won 5; and Las Vegas, Green Bay, and Baltimore 3. The common thread here is coaching: DeMeco Ryans and Todd Bowles pulled together rosters that were far more complete than anticipated, and the rest of the coaches either had an unanticipatedly good year or had a track record I should have appreciated.
Losing Teams: The Chargers lost 5 more than predicted; the Patriots and Bengals lost 4; and the Eagles, Giants, Commanders, Chiefs, and Jets lost 3. Half of those teams changed coaches in the years following, and the good teams stuck in there either had QB injuries or just suffered from me struggling to pick against them. I hewed much more to parity as a result.
This year, I boldly dive in to again make predictions, as clearly bad as I was. After all, for 17 out of 32 teams in 2023, I was within 2 games of getting their record right! Right? Right! What follows is my final record and division list.
AFC East
| Team | Record | Division |
| Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 5-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9-8 | 4-2 |
| New England Patriots | 8-9 | 2-4 |
| New York Jets | 6-11 | 1-5 |
AFC North
| Team | Record | Division |
| Baltimore Ravens | 13-4 | 5-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10-7 | 4-2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-10 | 2-4 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3-14 | 1-5 |
AFC South
| Team | Record | Division |
| Houston Texans | 11-6 | 5-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 | 2-4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5-12 | 3-3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-13 | 2-4 |
AFC West
| Team | Record | Division |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 13-4 | 4-2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10-7 | 4-2 |
| Denver Broncos | 9-8 | 2-4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6-11 | 2-4 |
NFC East
| Team | Record | Division |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 13-4 | 5-1 |
| Washington Commanders | 11-6 | 3-3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6-11 | 3-3 |
| New York Giants | 4-13 | 1-5 |
NFC North
| Team | Record | Division |
| Detroit Lions | 11-6 | 3-3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10-7 | 3-3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 | 3-3 |
| Chicago Bears | 7-10 | 3-3 |
NFC South
| Team | Record | Division |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11-6 | 6-0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9-8 | 2-4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6-11 | 3-3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4-13 | 1-5 |
NFC West
| Team | Record | Division |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11-6 | 4-2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11-6 | 3-3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7-10 | 3-3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7-10 | 2-4 |
Playoffs!
Miscellaneous Notes:
- Yes, the Bills climb the mountaintop this year: there may be problems in the secondary and questions around the front 7, but the coaching has been so on point for this team and Josh Allen’s chemistry with Joe Brady is undeniable. They have the horses and discipline to dethrone the Eagles (Allen absolutely neutralizes the strong defensive linemen) provided they can find their way through the challenges that Kansas City and Baltimore (the other two best teams in the league) bring.
- If I’m uncertain about any team’s playoff placement, it is in the teams with defenses that worry me: the Bengals, the Chargers, and the Commanders are worrisome due to some weird defenses.
- The Browns hold the #1 overall pick in my prediction, with the Saints, Colts, and Giants close behind. In a good QB class, the worst team in the league may simply be the one most willing to tank and all four will likely end 2025 in a QB-needy position. If the Saints were to end up truly the worst, you’d have to imagine homegrown icon Arch Manning declares. Interestingly, if this were to bear out, I can only point definitively to 3-5 coaches who would lose their jobs but, as we all know, a good team will crater and that Head Coach will definitely be chopped.
- Embarrassingly, I picked all 8 division winners from last year to repeat, which has not happened ever while there were 8 divisions. I just looked for one change to discount the year, so I can’t zero in on just HOW unlikely that is, but suffice it to say, ain’t no fucking way. I do think that the division winners from last year are just that much better than their three opponents, but all it takes is one QB injury to change it all.
Over/Unders
Based on my win predictions, the following teams would be over or under their projected wins. The number next to each team is how many wins that betting markets projects for the team at the end of the regular season. Though some books certainly differ, I will be going off of BetMGM’s totals, posted on July 3rd. Particular notes: this year, I stayed much closer to Vegas win totals because, duh, Vegas knows. There will generally be more teams with overs than unders because the best teams with the best QBs often win far more than their peak total of 11.5, which accounts for the fact that any Top 5 QB could be injured any year. My worst team, the Browns, indeed do have the lowest win total this season, while my Super Bowl team is tied for best record odds. In other words, I didn’t go crazy. Coward.
I picked a few teams to go a game and a half over their total, mostly because I watched and believed in their QBs, but no one that I am far higher on than consensus. I did get bold with some losers: both the Colts and Saints are picked far below projections, by two and a half games. The Saints are in virtually the same QB position as the Browns with somehow a worse defense. Kellen Moore tank year is totally forgivable if it nets them either the LSU QB Nussmeier or Arch. I have soured on Shane Steichen as a coach, watching and decidedly NOT believing in his work with Anthony Richardson. A slow start will get him fired, and the Colts face a surprisingly stout group of defensive lines (Dolphins, Broncos, Titans, and Rams in the first four weeks). New ownership after Jim Irsay’s passing will feel empowered to move on quick, and the tank may be on.
| Over | Under |
| Falcons (7.5) Ravens (11.5) Bills (11.5) Bengals (9.5) Lions (10.5) Packers (9.5) Texans (9.5) Jaguars (7.5) Chiefs (11.5) Chargers (9.5) Rams (9.5) Dolphins (8.5) Vikings (8.5) Jets (5.5) Eagles (11.5) 49ers (10.5) Buccaneers (9.5) Commanders (9.5) | Cardinals (8.5) Panthers (6.5) Bears (8.5) Browns (4.5) Cowboys (7.5) Broncos (9.5) Colts (7.5) Raiders (7.5) Patriots (8.5) Giants (5.5) Steelers (8.5) Saints (6.5) Seahawks (7.5) Titans (5.5) |
MVP
Lamar Jackson: If my prediction holds and the Ravens are indeed the best regular season team in football, it’s impossible to count out Lamar. The most dynamic player in football, Lamar was an INCREDIBLE passer in 2024 despite receivers missing due to injury, and the team added a contested catch hero in DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. The offensive line is largely the same, Derrick Henry constantly puts the team in favorable looks for the pass, and this is still one of the fastest players in the league. He probably deserved MVP last year if not for voter fatigue.
Other Candidates: Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes AKA the other best QBs around.
Offensive Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley: I have to go chalk again, as the best RB in the league is in the prime of his career with just one OL lost from the best OL in recent memory (and the lost player was the worst OL on the team for my money). My GOD are the Eagles a team of absolute beauty when they run the football. The only issue for Barkley running it back is the crowded field: there are 3 other transcendent RBs and 2 transcendent WRs in football today who could be the league’s best any given year if blessed with health and team success. Ja’Marr Chase is the only other player I’d even entertain as the non-QB face of the league right now beyond Madden Cover Official Barkley.
Other candidates: Justin Jefferson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson. From a betting angle, I’ll add Christian McCaffrey, who somehow has worse odds in the market that Nico Collins and ranks just above the cooked Tyreek Hill.
Defensive Player of the Year
Jared Verse: Alright, this one is pretty unlikely. With pass rushers like Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and T.J. Watt in their prime, it is honestly silly to bet on a second-year pro to leap into this conversation. But on a recent podcast, Terron Armstead literally said that one of the joys of retirement is not having to see Jared Verse again. Verse was 9th in PFF Pass Rush grading but, with 89 total pressures, he actually topped the league. He was also 6th highest in PFF’s pass rushing win metric, and those above him? All former DPOY guys or at a similar level: Aidan Hutchinson (limited by injury), Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and reigning DPOY Trey Hendrickson. (A little note: Chop Robinson was 7th). So why not any of them? I have yet to firmly believe in Hutchinson, who is awesome but goes through a scheme change on defense and missed a whole bunch of tackles in his last full season. I believe Parsons, Garrett, and T.J. Watt will play on losing teams and face the run a whole lot. I don’t even know if Trey Hendrickson will start the season with his contract issue. Nick Bosa is the better bet, perhaps, but I’m targeting the kind of ferocity a young Verse will bring to a good team.
Other Candidates: Hutchinson (mainly, he has clear best odds), Parsons, Garrett, Watt, Bosa, Maxx Crosby if Pete Carroll goes nuts and they’re somehow good.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Ashton Jeanty: The first thing Pete Carroll did at the helm of the Raiders was to go get his Marshawn. In actual real top level college football, Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 TDs in 14 games. If a high schooler did this against 14-year-olds, you’d be astounded. He had 7 yards a carry. HE HAD 100 RUSHING YARDS IN EVERY GAME IN 2024! This guy is unhinged strong and unhinged explosive, Beast Quake is actually possible for the first time since Marshawn retired. Pete wants to run the ball, Geno is good enough to force teams into not selling out to stop the run, and we have something brewing in Vegas. If there was a better OL and the great RBs of this league hadn’t re-emerged, I would be talking MVP.
Other Candidates: Cam Ward, Travis Hunter if he plays only offense. Bad year for offensive skill guys in the draft.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Abdul Carter: Before Ward separated himself as a prospect who was NFL ready, Carter was seen as a consensus #1 overall pick. He reminds you of Micah Parsons: all the athleticism to play any position in the front 7, smarts to match, and absolutely toys with top tier offensive linemen. The only question for Carter is how many snaps he plays: could he just get a rotational role a la early Cameron Wake in Miami due to other highly-drafted and highly-paid players on the edge? We can bet Carter will be a factor, but he may not play enough (or be coached well enough) to come on immediately. If that’s the case, bet on a pass rusher: Travis Hunter will be playing a lot of offense to start his Both Ways career, if word from camp is correct, and only three DBs (Marcus Peters, Sauce Gardner, and Marshon Lattimore) have won this award since 2010.
Other Candidates: The guys who kind of have no choice but to start, and thus may outsnap Carter: Jalon Walker, Shemar Stewart (currently holding out with the Bengals), Mason Graham, Mykel Williams, and Jihaad Campbell.
Coach of the Year
John Harbaugh: It’s a shame voters choose the Coach of the Year before the playoffs begin. If my scenario is correct, the incredibly consistent Sean McDermott would deserve the title, but I’m not sure we see the Bills with the top seed in the AFC. Interestingly, the last two years have not been first-time coaches: from 2017-2023, 4 of the 6 coaches were rookies at the top ranks. The NFL wisely seems to be moving away from this, especially as only Sean McVay proved to be worthy of the honor (Kevin Stefanski and Brian Daboll are dead men walking in their jobs, and Matt Nagy was a legendary failure). Harbaugh and the Ravens were so efficient last year that only an insanely effective Sam Darnold season could hold him back from his second time winning the thing. If the Ravens are 13-4 as predicted, Harbaugh deserves his roses.
Other Candidates: McDermott, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Andy Reid, and the new guys (betting markets favor Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel, Liam Coen, and Pete Carroll above everyone I named).
Hot Ass Spicy Takes for Each Award:
Let’s see one of these amazing things happen so I can look like a damn genius: at the very least, keep an eye on these dudes to be breakout stars. All of these guys have the talent to make this happen and it happening would make my life:
Saquon Barkley MVP — a RB should win MVP if he truly is the juice behind a great team! It can’t happen because QBs are so important, but who have we seen be THIS GOOD outside of a QB?
Malik Nabors OPOY — With competent QB play, this guy could be sensational. Amazing body control, great with the ball in his hands, explosive on routes. Nabors is that guy. He reminds me of Josh Gordon in this regard: supremely talented to the point where QB simply doesn’t matter.
Chop Robinson DPOY — Every underlying metric suggests Chop Robinson is an explosive pass rusher and general defender ready to ascend. He infuriated linemen last year who were left lunging at air. His first step is so quick, it’s like a cartoon. Chop is on a mediocre team with two other good DEs, and teams may be able to run the ball at him to neutralize him, but those kind of athletic gifts are rare.
TreVeyon Henderson OROTY — Can Mike Vrabel unearth another Hall of Fame RB and ride his power and wheels into another formidable offense? Vrabel famously took over the Titans and promoted Derrick Henry to full-time starter, launching him to a Hall of Fame career. Henderson is an incredible athlete, if a little undersized and raw. If Rhamondre Stevenson cedes carries, though, Henderson will play off Drake Maye to look just fine himself. He’s no Henry, but Henderson could be a hot fantasy name next year if the OL improves.
Nick Emmanwori DROTY — I loved this kid through the Draft process. It’s hard not to love a safety who combines a 4.38 40 with 20 bench press reps. My list here is about athletic freaks, it appears, and Emmanwori definitely qualifies. As a Seahawk, it’s hard not to look at him and see Earl Thomas in terms of his quick range AND Kam Chancellor as the TE eraser. No, he probably doesn’t have Thomas’s elite vision or Kam’s bone-crushing tackles, but this is a talented Swiss Army Knife safety that should work well with a coach who pounded the table for young star Kyle Hamilton.
Mike Macdonald COTY — Impossible. No chance. Sam Darnold will almost assuredly die behind a god-awful OL. BUT! There is no cooler defensive mind since Rex Ryan in terms of an attacking defense than Macdonald’s years with the Baltimore Ravens. Fangio is incredibly efficient, but his defenses couldn’t be used to power a city like Macdonald’s raw attacks. His defense could flourish with strong talent upfront, and underrated pieces at the corners and edges. With a half-decent offense, the Seattle Seahawks may surprise after a year of transition in 2024.
