Introducing: BOOB Metrics
Every team enters the NFL offseason with similar goals: maximize what worked by maintaining (and enriching) your core with an eye to future flexibility to ensure that those guys are part of your future. At the same time, eye your biggest area of vulnerability and shore it up: in an ideal world, you’d be able to be the Packers, who saw that safety play was hurting both their potential for turnovers and stopping big plays, and sign one guy to wipe out that issue in Xavier McKinney. The offseason does not work like that, and often a team finds themselves making tough decisions like letting Saquon Barkley walk as part of maintaining the rest of their core only to find that elite talent walked out the door to an archrival. Proper evaluation, and an alchemic understanding of the right combination of aggression and conservative moves, is the only way to build a team.
Below, I offer what I believe is the Biggest Order Of Business (a novel metric called BOOB) on which each team needs to focus. Many teams have similar BOOBs, which will give an idea of who might be competing for similar players. Some teams, like the 2024 Packers, have a relatively small BOOB like a safety, while others like the 2024 Browns have one giant BOOB that is virtually impossible to deal with. This year, there are seven BOOB categories: QB, toughness in the trenches, pass protection, playmaking ballcarriers, pass rushing, pass coverage, and maintenance. Let’s dive in to some BOOBs.
BOOB #1: Seeing Ghosts
Cleveland Browns
With Deshaun Watson rumored to be looking at an Achilles recovery that could take an extra year, if he even returns at all, the Browns find themselves with a very delicate opportunity. How much money can they recoup from the player if he injured himself via poor rehab? Watson famously received the largest fully-guaranteed contract in NFL history, but can that money be offset? Jameis Winston was up and down last season in relief, a decidedly goofy football presence. With the #2 pick in the draft, are the top two QBs in play for the Browns? Or will another sacrificial lamb be added to the Browns QB Starter jersey via a journeyman?
Las Vegas Raiders
Mediocre to poor play from the offense started with limited signal-callers who flat out could not get the ball downfield. The Raiders have weirdly stumbled into playmakers who can create, with perhaps the best young TE in football since Travis Kelce. But the future is not set at QB and now, with Tom Brady clearly at the helm of both the coaching and GM hires, the Raiders will move heaven and earth to find a real QB. Is this a situation where they can get a Russell Wilson discount to pair with a player who drops to them with the 6th pick? Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell will not take another snap at QB again, that much appears clear.
New York Giants
In cutting ties with Daniel Jones, who the Giants extended with a big boy deal after a decent 2022 campaign, a team not built to reset hit the full reset button. Given the relatively insane “we’re competitive” moves like trading assets for defensive pieces, this is a blinking red alert. The Giants finally have some semblance of decency upfront and one of the four great pass catchers from the 2024 draft. Picking 3rd behind two teams with an answer (albeit uninspiring one) at QB, they may have a chance. With no real choice to play QB on the roster, this team will make a change by basic necessity.
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers, at publication date the new Deputy Head of Health and Human Services, is a nightmare who buried this team even further than its already deep, deep hole. The Jets are the least successful team in the NFL now, over a decade past their last playoff appearance. They have stooped as low as interviewing a former loudmouth coach who has been a media member now as long as he was the actual Jets coach. It isn’t encouraging! A Rodgers cap hit relief via retirement makes some things easier, but not many: this team will still not be able to pay a QB. The draft, you say? The Jets are 7th, behind every team in this tier save for the Saints and Steelers. They would be committing to a lesser prospect to select a QB here with a host of other needs. Things are most dire for them of all the others.
New Orleans Saints
Speaking of the Saints, New Orleans may be a candidate to stay put at the QB position, but that will not excite fans. Derek Carr actually received high marks for his performance in a deeply difficult 2024 season. He nearly topped his career best in yards per attempt, had his second-best QB rating of his career, and was a PFF darling for just keeping a bad offense competent. The downsides: Carr missed seven games, saw his coach fired after the team dropped 7 straight, and has made the postseason twice in a career that spanned since my freshman year in college. The Saints are the best candidate to NOT make a move, but two factors will matter: if the Saints make a hire on the offensive side of the ball (Kliff Kingsbury, Kellen Moore, and Mike McCarthy remain in play) then they will have an awkward arranged marriage to contend with. I could make an argument for all but Kingsbury as liking the veteran. If a defensive coach like Anthony Weaver lands the job, then Carr should be fine. But this decision is the BOOB because Carr’s cap hit with go from $12 to $51 million dollars this year, tying 20% of the team’s cap to the QB. Yikes. Cutting him won’t solve much either, with $50 million in dead cap following him. A 2025 year that leads to a cash reset with a 2026 QB change is most likely, but that decision has yet to be made.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tyreek Hill made headlines as the most outspoken end-of-year press availability about his team’s shortcomings, but George Pickens was close behind when he delivered a vote of no confidence to the entire offensive operation. Pickens, a thorn-in-your-side that will probably be yet another Steelers WR to find his way off the team and quickly out of the league, is also the team’s most dynamic weapon by a mile. The vote of no confidence is notable because the team employed very different styles of offense for its two 1-year-deal QBs: Justin Fields ran a tight and physical operation to a few wins while Russell Wilson stepped in to provide a more aggressive downfield passing element after recovering from a preseason injury. Neither impressed Pickens, and neither impressed fans, especially with the sign-off beatdown by the Ravens. The Steelers do not have a starting QB on the roster with both Wilson and Fields hitting free agency. Do they run one back? The Steelers will never pick in the top 10, so a QB of the future is unlikely through the draft without a blockbuster trade. Their best bet is a diamond in the rough a la Sam Darnold or Jared Goff, and with Wilson now inevitably eyeing Vegas and Carroll, this decision will make or break the Steelers hopes with a great defense getting older.
Tennessee Titans
It’s easy to read too far into end-of-year press availabilities because, well, it’s the last word we’ll get from a team before training camp optimism. The Titans hired longtime Chiefs lieutenant Mike Borgonzi for their top spot, and have an interesting decision-making structure around nepo baby coach Brian Callahan. Callahan watched a stinker of a season from Will Levis last year, frequently subbing in Noted Helmet Smash Victim Mason Rudolph to play via strange injury benchings. It is safe to say he hated the experience. With the #1 overall pick, however, Borgonzi mentioned in that end-of-year presser the need to find elite players. The two most elite players in the draft play defense, another awful element of an awful Titans team. Will they believe that Cam Ward or Shadeur Sanders has elite in them? Or will they stay safe (if bold) with a Travis Hunter? A big BOOB!
BOOB #2: Soft!
Cincinnati Bengals
Watching the Cincinnati Bengals flail on defense was an all-out nightmare. I have my own little bowl full of jelly, but even I can be proud of my core strength given how much these dudes got gashed on runs, gashed on passes across the middle, gashed on deep posts, it was insane. Between the hashmarks was a red light district: anything goes. The Bengals need to fix a general softness, with an interior line that was also decidedly troubling. The Bengals need LB and S more than anything to my eyes, but they also need an entirely new mindset. Watching Joe Burrow perform surgery in the best pure passing QB season of the year and still struggle against malaise was hard.
Dallas Cowboys
A Week 1 44-19 defeat in which the Cowboys got outrushed 190-68 set the tone for the entire year. Aging Zack Martin couldn’t lead a run push on his own, and Zeke Elliott and Rico Dowdle spent their season slamming into the back of stonewalled linemen. On defense, the only guys in the middle worth a damn are in some precarious situations. Osa Odighizuwa is looking at free agency, Eric Kendricks is ancient and a free agent, and superstar Micah Parsons is a bit disgruntled. Couple this with the left side of the offensive line looking like a horror show and a bunch of gamblers at cornerback, and you’ve ordered a soft serve team with a side of marshmallow. Brian Schottenheimer as a coach is relatively uninspiring given the need for tenacity across the roster.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers weren’t the only team that the Eagles ground into mush, but the playoffs were an ugly look at the long-term success of this team. Still blessed with a gifted QB and playmakers, the Packers need to complement this with some success in the trenches on both sides. Zach Tom was the only OL that felt like a real keeper: Rasheed Walker was pushed around in the run game, and none of the guards are value-adds. Josh Jacobs’s great season at RB feels like a miracle when you have relative no-names getting no push. Coaching schemed around poor push upfront, and the ever-present threat of pass with good pass blocking schemes helped open looks that pure strength didn’t. Edgerrin Cooper looked like one of the best LBs in football once he was bumped up to full-time, but the rest of the team did not comply in the front 7. Soft teams often have a couple tone-setters that are toiling away in the mess because teams can key on them: Cooper and longtime star Rashan Gary were all the Packers had cutting wood while the others got pushed around.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has spent the end of both seasons now on IR and that has to do in large part with some pretty pitiful line play. Lawrence is a creator, but his line is not great at giving him time, leading him to be relegated to a quick passing game that sank to pop-gun in most games. Fine if you have a run game, but the Jaguars haven’t had that since the halcyon days of Fred Taylor and one season of Leonard Fournette. A piss poor front 7 that had nothing outside of some cool edge rushes from former top 10 picks made the Jaguars a hellish watch, as atrocious and plodding as they were when I took them on last year. There simply was not improvement, in large part from no improvement in the ability to lean on some teams. A talent-poor finesse team with old-school route concepts is my hell. The Jags are my hell.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins, my beloved boys in teal, struggled to find tone-setting play from the stars. The Waddle/Hill nitrous to go with a Mostert/Achane engine behind innovative and exotic twisty block concepts exploded in Week 2 and never consistently got back on track. The DL rotation was dope at points, with Calais Campbell an unexpected surprise and Isaiah Wynn to the rescue late on offense, but already you see a problem. The Dolphins have two modes: stars go boom or old veteran does Mike McDaniel’s job for him. Neither are sustainable, neither are a foundation. The Dolphins have many of the pieces you want to be good in the inside: Aaron Brewer is a speedy weapon at center, Zach Sieler is a dawg, Bradley Chubb and Jaelon Phillips are aggressive enough to set the edge when healthy, and Jordyn Brooks turned out to be a big upgrade over the finesse Jerome Baker. But now both safeties, who you relied upon to play in the box, are gone, and the interior of the offensive line is as doughy and dumb as it was in 2012 with no encouraging seasons since. The Dolphins must toughen up: they may have better players than most of this list, but they lack any sense of cohesion and consistency. And a lack of consistency…is soft.
San Francisco 49ers
Hiding stealthily behind the collapse of his protege, the 6-11 49ers have finally seen their perennial Super Bowl contender come undone. Investments in underrated edge rushers on short term deals went from the big and tough Chase Young to the undersized Yatur Gross-Matos/Leonard Floyd combination. Javon Hargrave got hurt, Dre Greenlaw couldn’t make it back for the season, Talanoa Hufanga couldn’t help in the box before he was shelved, Christian McCaffrey blew up both of his Achilleses and had to go to Belgium to figure it out, and the team got just 650 snaps from the ancient and still incredible Trent Williams. The 49ers…are perhaps in WORSE shape than the Miami Dolphins, and they STILL have to shell out a bank-breaking contract for their young QB. It’s frightening! The 49ers advantage is that they still have stars: George Kittle and Nick Bosa are the best in the business upfront, and Brandon Aiyuk still has plenty of special to go along with Fred Warner as tone-setters that teams have to plan around. It feels bad to conflate soft and fragile: the 49ers are still a mentally tough team that has played in the big games. But they broke last year, and fixing broke rather than tightening screws requires enhanced scrutiny.
BOOB #3: For the Love of God, Block!
New England Patriots
The common denominator around the teams below is that they may be soft or need playmakers, but above all, these teams have a QB they need to evaluate and nowhere for that QB to stand after the snap. The Patriots do not have one single solitary offensive lineman on the roster that they can trust. The closest is Mike Onwenu, who has now gone off a cliff every season he’s played. He’s just at average now, constantly playing a host of positions. You’d love him as your 6th, but he’s your best. The Vederian Lowe experiment at LT is over, Demontrey Jacobs holds the Austin Jackson trophy as the worst RT in football, the inexplicable Cole Strange LG first round pick is a nightmare, and old David Andrews is breaking down at center. Folks were excited about Drake Maye as one of the best scramblers in football, but this 32-year-old writer might also be if I had the adrenaline rush of certain death attempting to take my head as a trophy.
Houston Texans
It was a mess for C.J. Stroud this year, who still willed the team to a 10-7 record. It did not come with thanks to his offensive line, which struggled mightily in the games I watched. On paper, it’s a decent unit: Laremy Tunsil is well-compensated to be a pass blocking specialist, and he does so. But Texans Reddit was on this early: they lamented their team for making new mistakes each week, blowing pass protections then failing to get run game movement then committing frequent and flagrant penalties. There was celebration in the streets when the OL coach got canned, even if it was more muted celebrations for the offensive coordinator going with him. Life was tough for the line, with RT Tytus Howard moved inside after an injury to another player as cover for the fact that despite his paycheck, he hasn’t been very good. Shaq Mason looks broken down, and the young linemen haven’t come on. Of all people, fans miss Michael Dieter, a Miami castoff and Stroud’s center last year. Strange times.
Chicago Bears
There’s a strange tension here between an outlet like PFF and the larger consensus that the Bears have a bad offensive line. PFF likes the Bears line, feeling as though it did a good job with a young QB who held onto the ball way too long. Fans felt like the line was an incohesive mess that allowed a staggering amount of unblocked pressures. The truth may be in the middle, but undoubtedly, a new coach off the Dan Campbell tree sees the need to insulate a beleaguered QB from pressure by getting a line that wears down opponents. The Bears will make life easier for Caleb Williams if the run game is an asset and a top flight OL ensures the freedom to create. Bears Reddit may get furious about PFF, but there are good pieces on the line like former first-round player Darnell Wright and second-round player Teven Jenkins. Can coaching lead to cohesion that stops the narrative around a poor offensive line? This is new coach Ben Johnson’s BOOB.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are conspicuous here because every other team I chose has a 2nd or 3rd year QB with talent and something to prove. The Seahawks just simply have a good team with an atrocious offensive line. Charles Cross is a solid LT, but RT has been a turnstile due to poor health and poor play, both guard spots are a hodgepodge of broken down vets and rookies with no bite, and C Connor Williams retired midyear. For a defensive-minded coach, having an offensive line that puts the QB at risk and makes ball control severely difficult is a hard sell. To make matters worse, the Seahawks ran the ball 370 times last year and passed it an insane 724 times. Look no further for why NCAA phenom OC hire Ryan Grubb was fired this offseason. A team forced to go dropback pass because of a terrible offensive line is a recipe for QB injuries and abject failure.
BOOB #4: Find me a Playmaker!
Carolina Panthers
In a perfectly healthy year, the Carolina Panthers would be bereft of playmakers. Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson would be an incredible 1-2 punch last decade, and Xavier Legette did not exactly ascend to stardom last year. Jalen Coker, an intriguing depth piece, was the only qualifying receiver to rank in the top 25 in YAC, and next closest was Thielen at 81st. Legette was 103rd and, if you guessed Carolina would have the single worst YAC player, you’d only be wrong by one slot! David Moore is 110th and DeAndre Hopkins was dead last at 111th. Now factor in health, as only the same David Moore played in all 17 games last year: Legette, Coker, and Thielen were the only Panthers to even manage 10. There is literally one proven asset: Chuba Hubbard had nearly 5 yards per carry and a solid 3.46 yards after contact average, earning him a nice extension. But with .51 yards per route run, he only succeeded as a one-dimensional downhill run grinder behind an offensive line that cost $100 million. As much as the Panthers fans worry about Bryce Young, an utter lack of creation is making his job all the more difficult. Outside of Legette and the hope of injured Jonathan Brooks, the cupboard must be restocked in every way.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos finally gave up on Jerry Jeudy, the master of the 3 catches for 28 yard statline. Despite some star moments in Cleveland, the decision was utterly correct: Jeudy is a perennial failure in contested catch situations, and dropped 10 passes last year with a pedestrian yards after catch rate. Despite being the 8th most targeted receiver, he slipped just 9 tackles, far fewer than the elite players above him. The Broncos instead kept Courtland Sutton, who also struggled with drops and YAC, but was a contested catch monster. If Sutton is the great hope, though, this is a troubling unit: the guy was tied with the aforementioned Xavier Legette for 103rd in the league in YAC average, partly because he was the only downfield threat but isn’t a speed guy. Payton’s Broncos need a receiver like Sutton to dominate, but their other skill positions need to step up. The intriguing option is Marvin Mims Jr., who led the league in YAC per catch, racking up 6 TDs. Mims is a gadget player, as is young Troy Franklin, at this point, and DeVaughn Vele is a long-term project. With the Broncos losing Javonte Williams, there’s a need to reconstruct the run game in its entirety. With no featured target outside of Sutton, no TE who even qualified for stats in targets, and free agent RBs, the team needs to figure out what goes around their young QB.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders have enjoyed a surprise trip to the NFC Championship entirely on the back of greatness from young QB Jayden Daniels, who is in the exact same situation as Bo Nix: a feisty defense, interesting playcaller, and overperforming run game surrounds the young talent. That said, Daniels is flat out better than Nix, as he is a playmaker in his own right who can hit every part of the field. Dan Quinn spent last offseason trying (and succeeding) to import a defense that wouldn’t implode his season. He lucked into a rookie who is somehow already one of the best game managers in football who can throw and run anywhere. So who does he have around him? A cadre of receivers next to Scary Terry McLaurin made plays, but 5 of the 8 WRs who caught passes from Daniels are free agents and the comeback year from Zach Ertz also might have priced him out of the Commanders range. Another total remake is needed, especially with Scary Terry hitting age 30, even though the overall performance of the skill players was pretty good!
Los Angeles Chargers
I really struggled with whether to put the Chargers here or with the soft category, as Harbaugh can’t be satisfied yet with his offensive or defensive lines, especially as Khalil Mack plans to be a free agent. But I cannot ignore the lack of quality help for Justin Herbert. Ladd McConkey was an absolute revelation this year, getting 91 catches for nearly 1400 yards and 8 TDs mostly from the slot, for a whopping 15 YARDS per catch! That’s nuts production, on par with a great Welker year. But who is winning out wide? Quentin Johnson goes invisible some games, Josh Palmer is a pure possession guy, and the Chargers were stuck banking on old names like Leviska Shenault and Jalen Reagor, as well as Jakeem Grant clone Derius Davis, to get some juice into their passing game. No one outside of McConkey consistently wins on contested catches. With RB J.K. Dobbins back to free agency after a solid season, Justin Herbert needs weapons to ensure the balanced offense Jim Harbaugh demands can function on schedule.
BOOB #5: Rush the Passer
Arizona Cardinals
Defensive-minded head coach Jonathan Gannon didn’t have a terrible season rushing the passer from his team (41 sacks in 2024, good for 13th), but no player managed more than 6 sacks individually. A midseason trade for Baron Browning at the deadline helped some, as he can win 1-on-1 in the pass rush, but Browning is a free agent along with the injured Dennis Gardeck. With just Zaven Collins, rookie 2024 first-round pick Darius Robinson (an interior guy), and a select group of poor interior rushers, the Cardinals absolutely need to harass the passer for anything to work for them. The rest of their defense is equally pedestrian outside of the ageless Budda Baker, but pass rush papers over that challenge.
Atlanta Falcons
Some teams can’t get specific things right: for the Browns, it’s QB. For the Dolphins, it’s OL. For the Falcons, pass rush has been an issue since their Super Bowl run in 2017. After a year of relatively good play on offense, if hindered by hiccups, the defense again was a nightmare, and nowhere was worse than the pass rush, which managed just 31 sacks, good for a fitting 31st league-wide. The gamble made in the 2024 offseason was a trade for Michael Judon. Judon was a menace once traded to New England in 2021, exploding for 31 sacks in 2021 and 2022 combined, a huge step up from his days as a role player in Baltimore. He had 4 sacks through 4 games before injury in 2023, and whether it was an issue of recovery or motivation, Judon managed just 6 all year as the premiere rusher in Atlanta, finishing 117th of 119 qualifying edges by PFF. Judon was supposed to receive a new contract with his trade, but the team (perhaps wisely) tabled talks. Former 2nd-rounder Arnold Ebiketie might be a guy maybe for the rotation, but that’s totally it, and at 26, you’re hoping for a bit of a late bloom. With the 15th pick, many top guys will be off the market, but they may have to go value: dumping Kirk Cousins, as the team is expected to do, will be pricey. The consequences of the 2024 Draft, when the Falcons made a play for QB of the future rather than pass rush, may hang heavy over 2025.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Well, the Bucs resigned Shaq Barrett for a playoff loss! That’s something! The Buccaneers actually were decent with their pass rush this year, as Todd Bowles schemes up a mean one. They’re in a weird spot where basically every BOOB category needs a little work; it’s a complete team, but what is complete when everyone is just not quite good enough to win a playoff game? I put them in this tier because Yaya Diaby is the only real winner off the edge on the team, and will need a lot of help as the years keep adding up for the excellent Lavonte David and Vita Vea. Vea will turn 30 this offseason, and though it is important to note that he is an absolute killer upfront, Bowles needs winners off the edge. The Buccaneers have a few whale contract that could easily open a $50 million dollar boon via restructures, and this team absolutely has the space to chase any number of good rushers (Khalil Mack, DeMarcus Lawrence, Josh Sweat, Charles Omenihu, Dennis Gardeck, Baron Browning, and Chase Young are all available as of now).
BOOB #6: Why is Everyone Butt Ass Open?
Detroit Lions
Oh, Lions, your window is coming to a close as contracts start to mature and the days of quality and enthusiasm start to wane. You’re the Bills without Josh Allen. A trade for Carlton Davis III made perfect sense and netted the team a good outside corner and the safeties are both high quality, but it was a rough opening year for 1st-round rookie Terrion Arnold. Arnold took his lumps to the tune of a tough 100.4 QB rating when targeted with no interceptions and 10 penalties. His 792 yards allowed easily led the team, and pedestrian play by Amik Robinson in the slot meant the Lions were vulnerable all year through the air. A 122.9 QB rating by Jayden Daniels in the divisional round was the nail in the coffin of what should have been a Super Bowl run. The Lions will be in the market for the entire defense (pass rush across from Aiden Hutchinson is probably what fans want the most), but the Daniels performance and recency bias lead me to hope for a veteran corner that takes some pressure off of Arnold. Davis is also a free agent, removing the only thing the Lions have going from them on the boundary. Young players will need to improve and a veteran is needed to allow the window to stay open.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts enjoyed health in the secondary, with 4 players soaking up a thousand snaps. The problem was that none of those four managed to put together a season that excites you. Jaylon Jones was the best with an 85.8 rating against him, but 9 penalties is a rough go. Kenny Moore, the excellent slot, allowed 7 TDs. Deep balls rained over the safeties’ heads a bit. This was not a disciplined defense. As such, Gus Bradley was sent to pasture in favor of Lou Anarumo, who was once a secondary guru before the floor fell out in Cincinnati. The Colts have some talent, but not much investment back there: the top 4 include two 3rd-rounders, a 7th-rounder, and an undrafted free agent. Top flight talent is needed to organize a defense, as a Colts team with Stephon Gilmore once proved. The Colts are working to figure out their future as an offensive team, but a defense that allows them to weather streaky scoring into the playoffs is their BOOB.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have so much to figure out, as they navigate how long Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp remain a part of their plans. Assuming McVay can iron out offensive transitions (as he has to wild efficacy over the years), I want to focus on how much I loathe the corners in LA. Ahkello Witherspoon managed a second year of half-decent play at outside corner, but the team resigned Darious Williams and he was entirely unplayable across the year. Quentin Lake was a nice surprise as a slot corner listed as a safety in run defense, but 8 penalties and a 68% completion percentage are nothing to write home about. Cobie Durant doesn’t pump you up, so you’re left with no exciting corners (with maybe one that can be good enough) on a team that doesn’t have much room to spend. If I were the Rams, I would worry about this all the more given the Lions end: Jalen Ramsey and two incredibly overachieving safeties flat out saved the team in 2021, but the two playoff games this year required little secondary effort (a weather game against the poor-passing Eagles and a Sam Darnold implosion). I’m worried they will not learn this lesson because of some playoff luck. Miami beat the Rams all over the field, and an honest evaluation of the team would highlight real worries in coverage over the aging offense.
Minnesota Vikings
Brian Flores looks like he will remain in Minnesota, skunked again on head coaching opportunities, so his exotic scheme that is heavily dependent on corners is back for another year. The problem? Cam Bynum, Harrison Smith, Byron Murphy, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaq Griffin are all set to hit free agency and there is no youth movement behind them that seems promising. Flores relied on veteran backups in Fabian Moreau and Bobby McCain to help supplement his defense, and any team with an entirely new secondary should be worried. Will the Vikings have a new secondary? Their BOOB is to figure out who comes back: Murphy was solid last year on a prove-it deal from Arizona (6 INTs), but Gilmore looked broken down and neither safety offered much in coverage despite Flores making things relatively easy by keeping his safeties up high. I expect the team to find a way to keep Murphy and invest heavily in Josh Metellus’s development, but that leaves three very important slots. With a high draft pick and near $60 million in cap space (and the team likely to turn to a rookie QB contract in J.J. McCarthy), there is plenty of ammunition to get Flores his guys. Flores has the keys to the BOOB.
BOOB #7: Maximize the Championship Window and Manage Decline
Philadelphia Eagles
What do you get the team that has everything? With an incredible arsenal of personnel, the Eagles can’t help but be good. Their OL is like 10 good players deep, their edge rush constantly reloads, and Jalen Hurts is back in an NFC Championship. Vic Fangio is a Philadelphia icon. There’s not too much cap space, but playing with some contracts is relatively easy to do: some new deals for quality players along with the knowledge that most of your cap debt is tied into the end of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox’s Ring of Honor careers. There’s plenty of space for the Eagles to continue to build this team. Re-signing the talented Josh Sweat can wipe away a good deal of the cap void charges, and there’s no must-retain free agent outside of the sensational LB convert Zach Baun, who probably needs Philly more than they need him. BOOB for the Eagles is hiring the right replacement for Kellen Moore if he leaves for New Orleans, but even that may work out just fine and they retain him. Self-evaluation is a keen skill from GM Howie Roseman, and I expect the Eagles to look very similar next year with another stellar draft class.
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce, are you still in there? With just 38 players signed for 2025 and only 11 million dollars in cap space, the Chiefs are in a difficult place to build a roster with this core, but are also in a place of great flexibility due to lack of poor decisions in cap spending. A Kelce retirement would free $20 million with a snap of a finger, and a Mahomes restructure could bring his $66 million dollar cap hit down with ease. The Chiefs have a full complement of draft picks that will be necessary to hit on, and OG Trey Smith is the free agent they would miss the most. But the Chiefs are chameleons: after an aerial assault squad of Tyreek Hill and peak Kelce with evil edge rush, the Chiefs transitioned to a team built behind an Eagles-esque OL and a generational defensive tackle. They’ve had good secondary years, good linebacker years, run game years, RPO years. The point is that the Chiefs can be trusted to build a good team. When Kelce and Reid retire, the real work begins to maintain Patrick Mahomes’s stranglehold on the GOAT conversation.
Baltimore Ravens
I almost put the Ravens in the offensive line category, but honestly, we say this every year. Every year, the Ravens enter the offseason with an older line that feels watered down. This year, it’s Ben Cleveland, Patrick Mekari, and Ronnie Stanley who enter free agency (along with FB Patrick Ricard). But the Ravens will find a way: they have a knack for finding tough guys and developing even high school teammates of mine. Lamar Jackson changes the entire calculus for how defenses can play them. In the regular season, Jackson also carved up teams with a newfound precision passing, and a quartet of talented pass catchers (Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman) intermingled with journeymen veterans to be lethal in all phases of offensive football. With a young secondary, the Ravens had a few defensive growing pains, but is it really a point of pain when you have the #1 run defense in football without any marquee names down low? Kyle Van Noy is an elite rusher for them, for God’s sake. Like the Chiefs, Baltimore needs to find a bit of money and get some wins in the draft, but the core remains intact with no free agency interruptions, and rookie deals for Flowers, Tyler Linderbaum, Travis Jones, Kyle Hamilton, Nate Wiggins, and Isaiah Likely make life much easier. Finding a way to add Derrick Henry added a new element to the team, perhaps 2025 they can do it with a marquee tackle or a big WR or a tiny scatback or a second great LB or a mean-spirited edge rusher. Plenty of options for the Ravens to improve, especially with a team built to contend.
Buffalo Bills
Lastly, the AFC Championship-bound Buffalo Bills. They’ve finally climbed a bit of the mountain after some devastating playoff losses over the years behind a relatively unscathed Josh Allen and one of my favorite OLs in football. Sean McDermott built a quality defense out of old depth pieces developed behind his starters in previous years, and the team even squeezed a vintage season out of Von Miller. Even as his injured pieces from 2023 took their time coming back, McDermott plugged holes and made a juggernaut. They’ll keep Joe Brady despite his offensive play calling excellence, as he was the runner-up in a few jobs this offseason. Amari Cooper and Rasul Douglas headline the departures worthy of following, but Cooper is redundant with the talented rookie Keon Coleman (and Mack Hollins tbh), and Douglas played a pretty rough year that can be pretty easily replaced. Still, the Bills will need an overhaul in the defensive interior and some help along the edges. Given the success Buffalo enjoyed from young starters filling holes, it’s safe to say player development remains a strength up north. And people will keep queuing up to play with the electric Josh Allen like every other team with this BOOB. Buffalo’s Super Bowl window, which seemed to be closing, has new life. The BOOB is a Super Bowl. Super BOOB.
