The Miami Dolphins have reached a crossroad. In my preview last year, I (correctly) noted that Miami planned to revolutionize their running attack, creating a new protective factor for their oft-injured QB and open up new lanes of scary for opposing defenses. I also (incorrectly) believed that the Vic Fangio defense would force teams into unsettling situations and early deficits. While true for the popgun offenses that Miami feasted upon, teams with big stars at QB beat the Fangio plan with ease, and often forced Miami to abandon their command of a game. Miami’s incomplete plan, and the cap hell their investments have created, will force the team into tough decisions this offseason, with thousands of snaps opening up for Chris Grier, Mike McDaniel, and new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver to allocate. Last year, I felt very confident in my ability to guess at their moves, but this year is more challenging. As with any good crossroad, there are many paths and a devil waiting for you to sell a soul right quick.
Recap
First, a recap of the moves made thus far. The single most important move coming out of the offseason was the predicted departure of Vic Fangio. McDaniel framed this as mutual, stating that “Ultimately, when push came to shove, it seemed like we both had the opportunity and it’d be best for both parties involved to literally, mutually part. So it wasn’t anticipated.” For Fangio, it was an opportunity opening with the Eagles, a team much better equipped to run his scheme and one with which he has familiarity. For McDaniel, it was a chance to cleanse the locker room of an unpopular figure the players of the team felt held them back within a potentially archaic (and definitely inflexible) system. Enter Anthony Weaver, a charismatic former player who was an edge player for a Texans team that featured Mike McDaniel as the WR coach. Gerry Sandusky, Ravens play-by-play commentator, raved about Weaver’s ability to command a room and bring out the best in players. His philosophy fits McDaniel’s comfortably: he too believes in maximizing the finite window of a player’s career, he wants to be on the field where the action is, and he believes that “Problems are gifts” (claiming, I might add, that he has never heard of “Adversity is opportunity.”) Beyond him, the Dolphins have made staffing changes up and down the roster: Fangio took Joe Kasper (safeties coach) with him, and both Sam Madison (corners) and Renaldo Hill (pass game specialist and DBs coach) will likely follow. Anthony Campanile (linebackers) and Kenny Baker (assistant defensive line) have both left for jobs with the Packers and Texas Longhorns respectively. McDaniel also jettisoned Ricardo Allen, Kolby Smith, and Mike Judge (offensive assistants). Parks Frazier, Roman Sapolu, and Jonathan Krause take their place: Frazier was famous for being the child intern offensive coordinator of the Jeff Saturday Colts, Sapolu was the co-offensive coordinator at Hawaii (and an offensive line guy), and Krause comes via San Diego State as their WR coach. With Weaver comes a whole new staff: Joe Barry will coach LBs and coordinate the run game, Brian Duker will serve as pass game coordinator and secondary coach (a co-run role with Ryan Slowik, who was frequently featured on the Dolphins Hard Knocks), Mathieu Araujo will coach corners with a promotion, and a smattering of new assistants will join as well. Barry is coming from a disastrous run as the Packers defensive coordinator, but was highly regarded as Sean McVay’s assistant head coach with the same roles as his Dolphins responsibilities. Duker is an exciting hire, and served as the DB coach for the 12-5 Lions last year.
Outside of the staff, Miami has been dedicated to trimming their roster defensively, cutting Jerome Baker, Xavien Howard, Keion Crossen, and Emmanuel Ogbah. Though Crossen did not play meaningful defensive snaps, the other three opened 1,742 snaps combined. The Dolphins still sit about 15 million dollars over the cap. Among their free agents, Christian Wilkins, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Andrew Van Ginkel, Raekwon Davis, Isaiah Wynn, DeShon Elliott, Jake Bailey, Nik Needham, Kendall Lamm, and Brandon Jones are most notable. As you might imagine, this accounts for thousands of snaps, mostly on defense, and Miami isn’t yet in a position to sign a single player. Woe unto us. With just 6 picks in the NFL Draft (none in rounds 3 and 4, and two 6th round picks), the answers to everything won’t be found there. Miami must mount a plan to improve, and the priorities are ordered below.
Priorities
1. Extend Tua Tagovailoa and (barring off-field antics) Tyreek Hill
Tua Tagovailoa has earned his big payday. A Dolphins fan did the research for me, pointing out that Tua is just the 7th player in 50 years to lead the league in both passing yards and passer rating at some point in their career: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Phillip Rivers, Dan Marino, and now Tua. Six HOFers and Tua. This year, he also stayed healthy. McDaniel’s favorite is an ascending talent in the league ready for the over $50 million dollar a year contract. Extending Tua is the right decision for the health of the franchise and, surprisingly, allows for much more flexibility in the cap. Tua’s contract can be backloaded for the offloading of Terron Armstead and Bradley Chubb’s massive deals, as well as whatever Tyreek Hill’s new deal looks like. There is clear precedent here: in 2020, Patrick Mahomes inked a ten-year, $450 million dollar deal that kept him from free agency until the age of 36. His first two years of cap hits (which were covered under his rookie deal) were $5.3 and $7.4 million dollars. A Tua extension needn’t break the bank, may cause temporary relief, and will allow the Dolphins to plan their financial future. Tyreek Hill, meanwhile, hits for a hilarious $56.3 million dollars in 2026, which will literally never happen. Miami has two choices: cut him down the line or extend him. Hill’s play has earned him the latter, allowing one or two more years to spread money and save the team near $10 million on the cap depending on the terms. In the years to come, the Dolphins will need to find ways to retain Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, and Jevon Holland, but that is a problem for next offseason. Other players who could be extended based on good play and deals near expiration include David Long Jr., Jalen Ramsey, and Raheem Mostert (Sports Illustrated posited them all as candidates, and I would tend to agree).
2. Restructure Key Contracts
Miami has a few top-tier options for restructuring that could instantly provide relief. For one, if the Dolphins choose not to extend Tyreek Hill and believe that he may, in fact, be done with the team after 2024 (likely via trade), he could free up to $13 million dollars (all values here will be theoretical via OverTheCap.com). Jalen Ramsey could free $14 million, Terron Armstead $8 million, Bradley Chubb $16 million, and Zach Sieler another $5 million. Even with just those 6 contracts, Miami could free up $79 million in cap space. Restructures are a given, the only question is who and how much. Restructures generally lock a player in for longer, and all six (save for Armstead due to his retirement talk this offseason) seem to be great candidates as building blocks for Miami. The restructures have not yet begun, and no word has emerged on any potential changes.
3. Replace Christian Wilkins
My ideal way to replace Christian Wilkins is to retain Christian Wilkins: the Miami tone-setter added 9 sacks to his already-formidable run stuffing game. While Pro Football Focus may prefer his 2022 and 2021 seasons, Wilkins succeeded outside of the Brian Flores system and will be a fan favorite and general monster wherever he lands. Miami has to find an additional $25 million dollars a year to sign Wilkins, however, and that feels wildly unlikely. The Ravens defense fielded a deep rotation inside, with Justin Madubuike leading the charge and Travis Jones, Michael Pierce, and Broderick Washington serving as the other pieces in the rotation. Miami has Zach Sieler and that’s pretty much it. If Wilkins is not the choice for Miami due to price, his $20-25 million dollars can be sent on a larger rotation. Of the available candidates, Raekwon Davis is likely cheap and can be retained. From there, Miami could focus on mid-tier options like Grover Stewart (Colts), Sheldon Rankins (Texans), Mo Hurst (Browns), Foley Fatukasi (Jaguars), DaQuon Jones (Bills), or A’Shawn Robinson (Giants). The options, though, are slim: top-tier talents are hitting the market and otherwise, you really roll the dice. Of the options mentioned, just Robinson is below 30, and you certainly will not find the kind of dominance Wilkins offers anywhere else in free agency. In the draft, Kris Jenkins (Michigan), Braden Fiske (Florida State), and Ruke Orhorhoro (Wilkin’s alma mater of Clemson) have round 1-2 grades after Miami’s first pick. Miami would be wise to retain Wilkins as a key part of the restructures if at all possible.
4. Reshuffle the interior line
All 3 of Miami’s starters in the interior of the offensive line are free agents, and retention is both dicey and potentially impossible. For Robert Hunt, the chance at a payday that will net double in one year what he has made over his career ($8.07 million) is difficult to turn down. In fact, Pro Football Focus projects his annual salary to be just shy of Wilkins at $17.5 million a year. Accounting for injury, Hunt was the 23rd best guard in PFF’s WAR metric (wins above replacement) while seeing only 608 snaps. His PFF season grade was 6th best among guards. In a league where interior offensive talent is scarce, any number of zone blocking teams could use him and there will be a healthy bidding war that Miami is unlikely to win. Isaiah Wynn, the oft-injured former Patriot that Miami signed to a one-year deal, was lost for the season and is a clear candidate to resign as a depth play. Connor Williams is the most intriguing: with a PFF price tag of just $7.5 million per year despite ranking as PFF’s second best center, his Week 14 ACL injury makes a resign possible. But will Miami wish to do so? Williams held out of off-season workouts last season, and his frequent groin injuries (a re-aggravation got him when he returned) and the ACL rehab will depress his market. There is no chance Williams signs in March, it’s simply not feasible for teams without his medical. His agent has been a bit more conciliatory to Miami, and the path back is there. Outside of Hunt and Williams, guys with elite play on their resume are scarce. Players like Dalton Risner (Vikings), Kevin Zeitler (Ravens), and Mitch Morse (Bills) are decent options for Miami with plenty of years of experience. Three young centers, Lloyd Cushenberry III (Broncos), Andre James (Raiders), and Aaron Brewer (Titans), headline the market. None of them had the kind of athleticism Williams showed, but each has some skill that Miami covets based on last year’s tape. Coleman Shelton (Rams) has the versatility to play both guard and center, and Miami may find themselves looking for a jack-of-all-trades. The jewel of the class based on last year is Kevin Dotson: his mean streak as a left guard drove the Rams all year, and he would be a perfect fit in Miami which, unfortunately, means the young player is a fit everywhere. Among the bargain bin options, Jon Feliciano stands out: he revitalized his career at age 32 with the 49ers, and McDaniel will notice that. In the draft, Phins fans are salivating over Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson, who grew up a lifelong Dolphins fan. His availability when the Dolphins pick is hard to imagine, as he is 21 and coming off two seasons of top 5 center play according to PFF. Zach Frazier (West Virginia), Christian Haynes (UConn), and Christian Mahogany (Boston College) are all in Miami’s range at the position, and Haynes seems the most uniquely suited fit for the zone scheme.
5. Find Jerome Baker’s Replacement
Are you sensing a theme with the top needs outside of financials being interior play? Miami must get tougher, and paying money to finesse players was not happening after the beatdowns in Baltimore and Kansas City. The Dolphins need a player to pair with the physical David Long Jr. and that player will need to save cap. That likely prices them out of 24-year-old Patrick Queen, who played with Anthony Weaver in Baltimore. Queen was good from the moment the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith and, while that kind of raw physical talent is exciting, it’s unclear how it translates out of Baltimore. Frankie Luvu (Panthers) is an analytics darling who can do it all, but also will command a double-digit average money per year. The Dolphins in past years have been in on trying to sign Lavonte David (Buccaneers) and Drue Tranquill (Chiefs), and both seem more like the $4-6 million dollar a year LBs Miami will look for. Both are experienced and strong communicators. Could some of the one-year-wonders like Tyrel Dodson (Bills, and PFF’s top LB) and Blake Cashman (DeMeco Ryan’s field general in Houston) intrigue Miami? Whichever LB they get will likely be a flier. It’s hard to see Miami drafting a linebacker given the needs at premium (and offensive) positions. This one seems sure to be free agency.
6. Sign Geno Stone or Settle
The last fully open position on Miami’s roster is a safety to pair with Jevon Holland. My pick is Geno Stone, the Ravens free safety. At just 24, Stone has spent two years as a valuable safety for one of the best defenses in football. With Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams, his solid play as third safety is expendable, and the young man enters a free agency period that has seen safeties paid less every year. Stone can be a game-wrecker, hauling in 7 INTs last year. He covers like a real menace, but he’s no swiss army knife, as he has no experience in the slot or the box. That versatile talent is, wait for it, already on the roster in Holland! If the Dolphins feel like Holland can come down and play the box, it’s a no-brainer to go for a FS like Stone. But, if Miami feels like this is the place to go bargain bin shopping, it’d be silly to look anywhere other than asking your guys to unpack their house. Brandon Jones or DeShon Elliott are good players who both used the Fangio safety bump to put good tape out in 2023. Neither excites you, but both play well at all levels of the field. The dark horse is Jordan Poyer, who loves the Dolphins and appeared on Tyreek Hill’s podcast last offseason. Poyer all but begged Miami to pick him up, and yet his only option was taking the Bills pennies. Released one year into the deal, Poyer is an option again. It’s hard without knowing Weaver to link him to any draft prospects, but at #25 on the PFF Big Board, Tyler Nubin from Minnesota would be a potential top-tier talent available to Miami, and many safeties have Day 2 grades from the outlet.
7. Pray for Edge Healing And Get Yourself A Third
Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are no doubt attacking rehab as I write, but Miami needs other options at the edge with Ogbah gone and Van Ginkel ready for his own payday. Free Agency is traditionally a nightmare as far as overpaying pass rushers, and Miami will likely convince themselves that all they really need is depth, especially with a stacked draft in the late parts of the 1st round. Maybe this is the moment Miami finally coaxes former #1 overall pick JaDaveon Clowney to town on a lowered price tag to reunite with Anthony Weaver after his year in Baltimore. Maybe Za’Darius Smith is winding down in terms of his high price after another great year in Cleveland. But Van Ginkel, Stinky himself, is still Miami’s best option. At just $6.5 million a year, the playmaker is a mid-tier free agent and, due to a general lack of pedigree and teams squeamish at the thought of him as an every-down player, should be priced as a rotation option. No one values Van Ginkel like Miami, making him a star of Hard Knocks and rotating him in over high draft picks and high-priced players. Van Ginkel loves Miami and Miami loves Van Ginkel. The time is right to draft an edge player, especially after seeing Baltimore add to their rotation over and over last year, and options include Jared Verse (FSU), Laiatu Latu (UCLA, a Phillips clone), Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner (Alabama), and Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson (Penn State). Whether you want college experience and excellence or youth and athleticism, the edge class has a bit of everything. Miami’s needs align perfectly with this draft.
8. Outside Corner Insurance
With Jalen Ramsey set to play the Star role in Miami (working often from the inside and using his superior athleticism to shadow a team’s star receiver into the slot in a college-style scheme), the Dolphins need a player who can work outside. Eli Apple, Miami’s cheap option to fit Fangio’s anti-Cam Smith agenda, is gone. Cam Smith must be the answer or Miami is down two outside starters. Kader Kohou played much worse in 2023 than his 2022 breakout, and the three are really all Miami has. A starting caliber player must be added, and this makes far more sense to sign than draft. Options are all over the place: Chidobe Awuzie is young and played well with the Bengals, Steven Nelson had a career year with DeMeco Ryans in Houston, and oldheads like Sean Murphy-Bunting (Titans), Stephon Gilmore (Cowboys), and Adoree Jackson (Giants, and somehow just 28) are all available as well. Miami needs someone who can play outside beyond Kohou, who struggled there in 2022. Ronald Darby (Ravens) and Rock Ya-Sin should be seen as dark horses who played well with Weaver. Chris Grier interestingly did not shut the door to Xavien Howard, the crown jewel of his first draft class, returning to the team, but money and bad blood should put a stop to such thinking.
9. Find a Worthy Tight End
As I write, Miami is negotiating a deal with Jonnu Smith, who had the best season since leaving Tennessee last season. A willing pass blocker, Smith can partner with Durham Smythe to make Miami more of a threat to pass while in 2-TE situations. Smythe’s action mostly came from RPOs, where teams terrified of the receivers and the RBs would leave him entirely open due to run action. Jonnu Smith can do far more with those targets, averaging 7.3 yards after the catch per reception and tallying 582 yards and 3 TDs when all was said and done in 2023. Most encouragingly, Smith had a clean 100 passer rating when targeted, which is saying a lot when you factor in the QB nightmare in Atlanta. Sign Smith. If you don’t sign Smith, Hunter Henry (Patriots) and Noah Fant (Seahawks) are athletic guys that add to the offense if they’re not overpaid. Adam Troutman (Broncos) brings the blocking needed. Two incredible TEs are coming in this year’s draft, Brock Bowers (Georgia) and Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas). Bowers, one of the most talented offensive weapons in years, will likely not make it to Miami barring a complete devaluing of the position, but Sanders has reportedly met with Miami and is just 21 (perfect Chris Grier age). Will Miami invest in a TE? McDaniel has declined on numerous occasions to do so, but the new evolution of Miami may involve new thinking at the position.
10. Dynamic Slot Receiver
Braxton Berrios was an exciting option in Miami due to his speed and agility, but the lifelong Dolphins fan mostly disappointed with just 34 catches for 238 yards. Miami needs something out of the slot, keeping Tyreek Hill scary as all hell on one side of the field while the other side clears for Waddle. Is the answer physical or speedy? And is Hill/Waddle in the slot while a big perimeter threat takes the field the better move? This is part of the McDaniel philosophy that needs to be ironed out. Players like Darnell Mooney (Bears), Gabe Davis (Bills), D.J. Chark (Lions), and Michael Thomas (Saints) fit the mold of a mid-priced WR who can play the perimeter while guys like Curtis Samuel (Commanders) and Deonte Harty (Bills) will serve in a Berrios capacity with a bit more upside. But what about the draft? Miami’s post-Hill future could be there, with players like Ladd McConkey (Georgia) and Xavier Legette (South Carolina) perfect YAC guys for McDaniel to project Deebo Samuel onto. In this league, big resources need to be spent on scorers. If Miami did not have so much to figure out, I’d insist on this being a much higher priority. I sincerely hope they have resources left over for the big swing at the position.
11. Terron Armstead Insurance
Terron Armstead mulled retirement this year. That’s simply fact, even as the player is not nearly as old as some top LTs in the league. Despite an immense amount of talent, Armstead gets hurt frequently and is a sure bet to miss at least 4 games next year. He looked washed at the Pro Bowl. What is the plan? If the goal is simply to insulate yourself in 2024, look no further than Cam Fleming (Broncos), who has stepped up at both tackle positions throughout his career. The options on your roster were also good, as both Kion Smith and Kendall Lamm played good football in Miami with McDaniel’s new and improved quick passing strategy. The Dolphins ran less true pass sets (defined as a pass that features no screen, play action, or rollouts) than any team in recent memory, and much of that had to do with generally weak pass protection. Miami should probably be in the market in the draft for such a premium position. Joe Alt (Notre Dame), Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), Troy Fautanu (Washington), Olu Fashanu (Penn State), JC Latham (Alabama), Amarius Mims (Georgia), Graham Barton (Duke), and Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) are all in the top 32 of the PFF Big Board, and many of them can play guard. Two birds, meet one stone. Miami can solve 2024 problems while also ensuring they have the tackle of the future on the roster. One of their preferred players will fall simply because each tackle offers a different flavor for teams and none project as that top 5 pick we always seem to get (think Penei Sewell). It may not be a top priority, but for the long term health of the franchise, tackle makes plenty of sense.
12. Get a New Kicker
As an ardent Jason Sanders defender, even I can’t stomach the 4th highest total money to a kicker who isn’t a game-changer. It’s time for Miami to move on from Sanders, which will likely help my heart rate. Kicker is a position that is tough for the layman to judge: every year, some undrafted kid joins the ranks of the best. Last year, that was Cameron Dicker, who made less than 7 figures and went to the Pro Bowl on the strength of an I Think You Should Leave video and a stellar year. That’s a better bet than Jason Sanders hitting the game-winning 54-yarder in the Super Bowl.
13. Game the Compensatory Formula
Miami, as you may have gathered by now, is losing a whole lot of high-priced talent in Free Agency. To keep parity in the NFL, the league awards compensatory draft picks to teams based entirely on how many free agents you signed to how many you lost, measured in dollars. This is great news for good teams: as the Chiefs or 49ers develop talent that leaves for 8-figure contracts per year and they rely on drafted talent, they rake in more picks. The one caveat: players released into the free agent pool from an active contract do not count in the formula. The Dolphins rarely get a compensatory pick, last landing one and using it when Olivier Vernon made a mint from the Browns (2017). The picks turned into Cordrea Tankersley (ouch), Isaac Asiata (OUCH!), and Davon Godchaux (nice). There are plenty of good players that Miami can sign that will have no bearing whatsoever on their compensatory picks. Each position of need has guys released: interior OL (Mark Glowinski, Laken Tomlinson, Ryan Bates), CB (Tre White, Avonte Maddox, Darious Williams), OT (Charles Leno, Chuks Okorafor), TE (the aforementioned Smith, Will Dissly, Logan Thomas), S (Poyer, Quandre Diggs, Eddie Jackson) and WR (Marquez Valdes-Scantling). If you’re pulling names from a hat that all feel similar, go with the one that gets you draft picks to be cheaper in 2025.
14. Decide Who You Are
The above priorities will dictate plenty about where Miami is going: just as their investment in De’Von Achane and their belief in Austin Jackson indicated a move to the run game last year, the moves will tip off where Miami plans to double down and where they plan to change their thinking. Mike McDaniel, the master of the paradigm shift, has landed on a defensive coordinator who does nothing if not constantly profess that the modern NFL is multiple. My priority would be to get less predictable, even at the expense of McDaniel’s incredible idiosyncratic approach to play calling. The new identity would feature a bit more tradition: a big receiver, a normal free safety, a boundary corner, a TE who can catch and block. That is not Mike McDaniel or Chris Grier, and we’ll see if it’s Anthony Weaver. No matter what, the philosophy must be built. Miami’s strategy of dual threats at the key positions (Waddle/Hill, Chubb/Phillips, Jones/Howard then Ramsey/Howard) is terrifying to the league and the reason, for my money, that Miami is a statistical leader in many categories. Can that be maintained? 2024 is a flashpoint year for the scrappy team and charismatic head coach. Each pick, and each dollar, must be spent on defining the fully-realized identity of a Mike McDaniel football team. It had better work.
My Ideal Offseason
Resign: Isaiah Wynn (IOL), Andrew Van Ginkel (EDGE), Raekwon Davis (IDL), DeShon Elliott (S), Robert Jones (IOL), Connor Williams (IOL), Kendall Lamm (OT)
Sign: Jonnu Smith (TE), Tre’Davious White (CB), Geno Stone (S), Drue Tranquill (LB), Mo Hurst (IDL), DaQuon Jones (IDL), Jon Feliciano (IOL), A.J. Dillon (RB)
Draft: 1st Round – WR, Edge, OT (Preferred: Ladd McConkey for WR, Liatu Latu for EDGE, any tackle that plays guard). 2nd round – IDL, WR (Preferred: Kris Jenkins for IDL, Xavier Legette for WR)
