Once again, all that is needed this week is a quick update on where things stand after my Week 12 Jets preview. I thoroughly expected that, since the last Jets game, I would be providing a positive update on another projected blowout. Much has changed, for better and for worse, as the Dolphins went bombs away against the Commanders and then suffered one of the worst losses in memory. Here we go.
| Projected Record | 10-7 (ACTUAL: 5-8) |
| Offensive DVOA* (2023) | 32nd |
| Defensive DVOA (2023) | 3rd |
| Players Added from Last Matchup: Jets | Zach Wilson QB, Allen Lazard WR, Mekhi Becton T, Duane Brown T, Michael Carter II CB |
| Players Added from Last Matchup: Dolphins | De’Von Achane RB, Chase Claypool WR, Robert Jones IOL |
| Last Result | Dolphins 34-13 |
Injury Report
PLAYERS ON IR: Aaron Rodgers QB, C.J. Uzomah TE, Connor McGovern IOL, Wes Scheweitzer IOL, Alijah Vera-Tucker IOL, Al Woods IDL, Bradlee Anae EDGE, Ifeadi Odenigbo EDGE, Maalik Hall LB, Chuck Clark S, Javelin Guidry CB
New Thing 1: Entirely Different Momentum
What does a week mean? Both Miami and New York have entirely opposite trajectories from their Black Friday game. The Dolphins entered that game fresh off a close-but-in-hand victory over the Raiders while the Jets were busted up by the Bills so bad (32-6) that they deactivated their third-year 2nd overall pick QB. The 34-13 beatdown that followed was no surprise. Now? Said deactivated QB from New York is fresh off of a surprising 30-6 dismantling of the Texans. Zach Wilson actually won AP Offensive Player of the Week honors for that game and, while he mostly just made sensible checkdowns all game, Wilson did have a few stellar throws in his own territory. It was all the more shocking because, in the week coming into the rainy home game, reports surfaced that Wilson was unwilling to even play for the Jets again! Meanwhile, on Monday Night Football, the Dolphins suffered one of the worst losses that the team has endured in decades, losing a 14-point lead with just 3 minutes to go in the game. Such losses tear at the fabric of a team: sure, you might not question your physical skills or your gameplan as you would after a blowout, but you do end up with real questions about your team’s mental toughness. The messages after the game were also mixed, with Bradley Chubb conceding that the team took the foot off the gas while Jalen Ramsey took offense at the question. If the season was Week 14, the Jets would be favored.
Thing 2: Aaron Rodgers In The Building
Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out of Week 15 against Miami, but after that? Rodgers has had his practice window opened and is out on the field throwing the ball. He has even garnered Limited injury designations. What is the impact of Aaron Rodgers in the meeting room? And how can even the glimmer of hope that he might return for Christmas Eve (as it has been reported now) affect the mental edge for a defense that has been forced to shoulder the burden after the Achilles injury. In many ways, the 5 wins the Jets have managed are a small miracle with the league’s worst offense. For the Jets, Rodgers is still just an intangible sideshow, potential mentor and potential progress-stopper. Was Zach Wilson much better in his first game with Rodgers in meeting rooms post-rehab? There are signs that he was: with just 1 turnover-worthy play* to 2 big time throws* according to PFF, he moved his numbers over the year to 11 and 10 respectively. Wilson had his third-lowest ADOT* of the year, throwing his passes an average of 7.3 yards per target, which also cut his time to throw down a bit. The worry with Wilson for the Jets is that, too often, he takes a very long time and scrambles only to throw a pass short of the sticks. There was certainly some of that in Week 14, but Wilson quickly delivered passes to the flat, allowing RBs to make plays and getting the ball to star WR Garrett Wilson faster. On the year, Wilson has had the best completion percentage of his career and, for the first time, has more TDs than INTs. Is this the Rodgers Effect? A loss effectively ends the playoff chase, and perhaps the announcement that he will play next week is simply motivation to get his team up and over the Dolphins for one last try.
Thing 3: New Offensive Lines Abound
Neither team has fielded a consistent offensive line since Black Friday. For the Jets, Carter Warren and Max Mitchell played at the tackles in Week 12, but a Warren injury and some returns has left that the tackles as Mekhi Becton at LT and Billy Turner likely to start at RT. With 37 pressures* allowed, Becton has continued to look like a shell of the star rookie from 2020. Billy Turner has stepped in at RT twice. First the good: Turner, the former Dolphin, allowed no pressures on 14 pass blocking snaps against a good Texans defensive front. And then the bad: Turner allowed 10 pressures (3 of them sacks) against the Chargers in Week 9. Max Mitchell has moved to the interior at RG and is likely to start. He also only started there once in Week 9 and, like Turner, folded like laundry. Joe Tippmann and Laken Tomlinson will both reprise their positions: neither were notably good against Miami, but both have been better of late. Meanwhile, Miami is likely to start Terron Armstead at LT according to reports, then Lester Cotton at RG, Liam Eichenberg at C (not sure if you want to play a guy you just signed if Eichenberg has anything in the tank off of his calf injury), Robert Jones at RG, and Austin Jackson at RT. When they last met, the Dolphins had Connor Williams and thus played Eichenberg at RG. For both teams, the best performer on the line is out and the shuffles have come with both growing pains and other nagging injuries.
Thing 4: Healthier Defense for New York
Michael Carter II has allowed just a 74.1 rating to opposing QBs. That’s much better than Brandin Echols, who actually had a pick 6 on Tua. Carter is an upgrade in every way over Echols, who allowed all of Tua’s passes outside of the pick to be caught for an average of 9.2 yards per catch. Carter won’t miss the tackles that Echols missed. D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner have no injury designations, indicating an improvement from some bumpy early-season injuries. Jonathan Franklin-Myers was upgraded to full practice participation after early week rest. The only notable change for the Jets in the other direction: Will McDonald was added to the injury report with a new knee ailment that popped up Monday. The Jets defense was ferocious against the Texans, and played a nice game against a worse team (the Falcons) the week before.
Game Prediction
There isn’t much to note when your opponent has only played 2 games since you last played. Miami has to be thankful that the last matchup was on the road because this team is hurting. As described above, a good deal of that pain is mental, but the physical pain will also be difficult to measure before kickoff. Robert Hunt and DeShon Elliott will definitely miss the game (as will Connor Williams on a torn ACL), but a few other notable starters picked up ailments in the past week. Jevon Holland is still dealing with MCL troubles, Xavien Howard hurt his hip, Andrew Van Ginkel and Austin Jackson picked up oblique injuries, Terron Armstead has no healthy part of his body, De’Von Achane has a toe injury, and Tyreek Hill has the ankle. There is perhaps no greater injury question in the league beyond Hill’s ankle. Tyreek remains on pace for 2000 yards, and has been the focal point of all things in Miami this season. He was off the field for most of the game but in his brief moments of return, Hill was shredding the CBs on one leg. Does he play? He didn’t practice all week, spending the practices in and out of a walking boot. This is undoubtedly good long-term for Miami: the Dolphins need to understand how to gameplan and play without Hill as a team crutch. Jaylen Waddle is still a star, and he has taken over small portions of games this year. Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios, Chase Claypool, and River Cracraft are all good players with intriguing skillsets. The offense must fit them. Outside of this matchup, the game will come down to what happens in the trenches. An injury-hampered Eichenberg flanked by Robert Jones and Lester Cotton is not good news. It’s bad news. Quinnen Williams on the other side is even worth news. This team must, above all else, find a way to keep Tua in rhythm and throwing quick. It’s a game where you almost wish they had a traditional offense to just sling the ball out. McDaniel must evolve, and he must also lean on the outside run game to Raheem Mostert and (potentially) Achane. On defense, Miami must again find the edge. Jalen Ramsey alone is enough to make Jets fans queasy about their QB’s newfound success. Can Bradley Chubb find a way to make Mekhi Becton look silly? Can Ogbah and Van Ginkel eat Billy Turner’s lunch? Is Duke Riley still a worthy replacement for Jerome Baker for now? There’s plenty to watch on that side of the ball.
In a 2023 Dolphins game, you hate to say that field position, special teams, and mental toughness will be the key to the game over manufacturing explosive plays. But explosives may be hard to come by and thus, the game comes down to limiting explosives. The Dolphins have to play ugly football. Can they do it? Can they get healthier in the weeks to come? I have likely used more question marks in this preview than any of my previous. The final quarter of the season has begun, and Miami must be ready to meet it.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 20-17
Season Record (Taylor’s Picks): 10-3
Next: vs. Cowboys
* = See Glossary
