With the 2021 salary cap nightmare in the rearview, and over 200 million dollars for teams to spend in 2022, the franchise tag has never been a more attractive option. This year, as in the past, teams took two strategies toward their tagging rights: either drop the tag on a player you simply cannot give up or use the tag to exploit a market inefficiency. Safeties, RBs, TEs, and specialists continue to provide the most value, with 4 million dollars separating the positions at the top end from defensive tackles. Tagging these positions can avoid long-term deals that potentially hinder deals needed for franchise QBs and other playmakers, and teams made moves that resembled 2021, when 3 of the 10 tags went to safeties. This year, TEs dominated the tag space, while another safety made an appearance on the list. With astronomical, market-setting deals less problematic for team-building, only eight teams bothered to tag a player, the lowest since 6 teams tagged a player in 2019 after the cap rose by at least 6% for the sixth consecutive year, the peak of the league revenue boom prior to the pandemic. The league calculates the tag by averaging the top five salaries of players at that position or 120% of the tagged player’s salary the previous year, depending on which number is higher. This incentivizes teams to tag players exiting their rookie deals; five players meet that criteria this year. Two candidates, Mike Williams and Harold Landry, negotiated long-term deals in lieu of the tag, with Landry the 10th highest paid at his position and Williams the 5th at his.
Bengals tag Jessie Bates (S) for 12.911 mil: A
Tagging a safety, whose number amounts to just over 6% of the team salary cap this year, is simply a no-brainer, and to do so for a guy who amounts to a top-5 player at his position makes the move a bargain. Bates was mediocre this year, but exploded in the playoffs: his PFF grade at the position was 129th during the regular season, but he skyrocketed to the top spot by a cardinal mile in the postseason, recording 15 tackles, 2 INTs, 3 pass breakups, and allowing just 4 of 11 passes to be completed in his coverage area (opposing QBs had a dismal 35.4 rating against him). The postseason seemed more aligned with his incredible 2020 regular season, where playing for a putrid secondary, QBs only achieved a 42.3 passer rating, with 1 TD to 3 INTs targeting Bates in coverage. Bates is one of the best in the business as a rangy free safety, and he is an essential piece of Lou Anarumo’s defense.
Browns tag David Njoku (TE) for 10.931 mil: B-
It’s hard to ding a team for allocating just 5% of their cap to a TE, but Njoku is a puzzling player who has struggled to put it all together as a Brown. Fantasy owners may remember the breakout games, but the former first-round pick has not topped 500 yards or 40 catches since 2018, and he has never provided a true redzone threat with a career high of just 4 TDs in a season. This might be excusable if he were a plus blocker, but he provides little push in the run game and marginal production in pass blocking in recent years. He is most famous to me for an anime touchdown dance. With Baker Mayfield in serious trouble, the Browns must believe Njoku is an important plus player in intangibles, or they may believe his athleticism may yet translate. With just 8 million dollars to spend in free agency, and a WR/DL room to rebuild, this feels like the luxury pay of a team contending for a Super Bowl rather than a team struggling to break a wall of mediocrity. The Browns may fancy themselves the former after talk in the 2021 offseason, but are probably the latter.
Buccaneers tag Chris Godwin (WR) for 19.18 mil: B+
Chris Godwin must meet the definition of a player that cannot be passed up. There is simply nothing this kid cannot do: a willing and able blocker, a guy who can run any route at any level, and an absolute monster after the catch. In his second year with Brady, Godwin missed the final 3.5 games with a torn ACL and still finished 6th in the league in yards after catch. He still set a career high in targets with 124 and an absolutely unhinged 79% catch rate, just behind Hunter Renfrow for the league lead on just 11 less targets (again, he missed 3.5 games). Godwin might be the best receiver not named Cooper Kupp in the league. The Bucs proved they believed him to be their star as they were not willing to let him hit the open market, even if the valuable Carlton Davis had to hit as a result. I can’t say they’re wrong: this man is a foundational piece of his team, and the likely-descending Mike Evans and an army of receiving no-names hoping to be the next Danny Amendola means the Bucs need to rebuild their playmaking unit. A few problems with this tag: as mentioned prior, the Bucs lose an immense amount of flexibility by not locking Godwin up long term, and they likely miss out on tagging their best corner. Godwin’s targets may prove unsustainable on a reconstructed knee, and the rehab may mean that he loses a step in 2022. As he was tagged for the second straight year, Godwin sees a slight pay bump over the average tag at a highly-paid position. Regardless, Godwin is an example of a bonafide franchise player who fits the name of the tag.
Chiefs tag Orlando Brown Jr. (T) for 16.662 mil: A-
This tag was simply a foregone conclusion. After trading the equivalent of a 1st round pick for Brown in the desperation of a failed Super Bowl run, the Chiefs needed to protect that asset. On the open market, Brown’s tape from last year proved that he could transition from right to left tackle and rely on his pass blocking to go along with elite run blocking traits displayed in Baltimore. After never taking more than 610 pass blocking snaps in Baltimore, Brown logged nearly 1,000 in KC, and a slight dip in his protection overall does not totally paint an accurate picture: Brown surrendered half of his pressures in the first 8 games, with the other half coming over 11 games. Just half of his pressures resulted in hurried throws by Mahomes, proving he’s a perfectly capable tackle in an excellent scheme. An additional market inefficiency comes by way of the tackle tag: Brown’s number actually comes in at 7th in the league for total cash due to all offensive linemen factoring into the tag number. One knock on Brown: despite capable play, there was not a noticeable result in the team performance, as both the 2020 and 2021 Chiefs rushed for 4.5 yards per carry and Mahomes saw essentially no change in the sack rate. The Chiefs are paying, instead, to avoid a risk when the playoffs come around.
Cowboys tag Dalton Schultz for 10.931 mil: A+
The Cowboys are in cap hell, and the tag could only be used at a position that saves some money. With the cutting of Amari Cooper nearing, Schultz is a familiar and potent weapon that Dak Prescott will need to lean on as his receivers emerge next year in a rebuilding NFC East. Schultz put a career year on top of his excellent 2020 season: his catches increased from 63 to 85, his TDs doubled from 4 to 8, and his yards per catch ticked up from 9.8 to 10.6 helped in part by an average of 1.52 yards per route run, a career high and good for 12th in the league. The dependable tight end can do it all, with plus blocking for the position in both the run and the pass game, allowing the Cowboys to keep him on the field for play action and RPOs, which Dallas has run efficiently under Kellen Moore. It’s simple here: a player coming off of a career-best two years, still ascending, with great chemistry in the pass game on a team that desperately needs to surround its franchise QB with playmakers on the cheapest tag possible, is a clear win for the team. That is especially true for a player whose impending free agency excited teams around the league.
Dolphins tag Mike Gesicki for 10.931 mil: A+ or B, depending on arbitration
The curious case of Mike Gesicki: a player drafted to be a playmaking tight end, Gesicki struggled to find his way onto the field in Adam Gase’s relatively-traditional offense because he simply cannot block. With Gase, Gesicki blocked over 40% of the time he was on the field. Brian Flores cut that number to less than 30% for each of the next three years, splitting him out wide or placing him in the slot more often than not. A simple Google search yields insane highlights; Gesicki’s 6’6” frame and electric 4.5 speed at the position, coupled with a huge catch radius, makes for great television. He has struggled to separate over the years, as teams caught onto him as the team’s best receiving option, and have thrown cornerbacks at him in a relatively basic and anemic offense with few legitimate threats to cover. Most notably for his situation as a tagged player, Gesicki spent less and less time as a tight end directly off the tackle: he lined up in that position 17.6% of the time in 2019, 12.9% in 2020, and just 7.4% in 2021. He is a tight end in the team program, but his usage suggests otherwise. If he is tagged as a WR, the team owes him an additional 9 million dollars, doubling his cap hit. Still, I’d grade the return of a team leader, ascending player, and a weapon who has yet to be fully unlocked in his offense a B even at the hefty tag: Miami needs playmakers who can be versatile to allow Mike McDaniel to execute a non-traditional positionless offense. Gesicki can be a skeleton key that allows Jaylen Waddle to work inside, he can find increased separation on play action, and, if he sticks around to see two new WRs, he can avoid those pesky CBs.
Jaguars tag Cam Robinson (T) for 16.662 mil: C-
When all the mock drafts have you picking a new franchise left tackle first overall, it is probably an indictment of your current tackle. The Jags tagged Robinson last year, quickly becoming a cautionary tale, only to be tagged again! On first glance, a player with remarkably bad run blocking grades and below average pass blocking grades is a candidate to be cut, let alone franchised. Indeed, the team is rumored to love Walker Little, their rookie from last offseason who played football for the first time in two years in 2021; if they did not draft a tackle, there was some expectation that would hand Little the job. But there is a small hope: Robinson majorly cut down on pressures, dropping from 40 on 120 more snaps in 2020 to 31 in 2021. His last two years were both career-highs in efficiency. The Jags are banking on further ascension, and turning their attention inside the line to unlock a run game for Trevor Lawrence with two excellent and different RBs. Robinson’s poor work in the run game remains worrisome, but with better complementary pieces and improvement from Lawrence, the plan for consistency at the position is taking shape.
Packers tag Davante Adams (WR) for 20.145 mil: A
If I said Godwin was the best WR not named Cooper Kupp, it was because I was wrong. Adams is a transcendent, generational talent. After finishing a 4 yr/58 mil deal that once set the market, Adams is looking to do the same as he passes the age of 30 and shows no signs of slowing down. His desire to play with the mercurial Aaron Rodgers may lead him to be wishy-washy with Green Bay, but the team is lucky to have him and his QB in a rapidly-weakening NFC after Brady and Wilson left the conference. Last year, he was characteristically filthy on throws inside of 10 yards, catching 74 for 628 yards, 355 of which came after the catch. He’s a monster on slants, and took the top off of defenses, catching 13 of 27 throws over 20 yards for another 453 yards. Not bad for a 4.56 40 time. Adams is all-in on this Last Dance run with Rodgers, but the Packers must avoid a late January choke. That is probably more on Rodgers: Adams boasts a PFF grade that has improved every year since 2015, likely due to his technical savvy that only improves with age. By hook or by crook, keep Davante Adams on your football team.
