Numbers and Off-Season
| Weighted DVOA Offense | 18th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense | 31st |
| Offense — Early Down Success | 3rd – Run 1st, pass 15th |
| Offense — Explosive Play Rate | 10th |
| Defense — Explosive Play Rate | 31st pass, 16th run |
| Key Additions | Morgan Moses T, Michael Pierce IDL, Vince Biegel EDGE, Marcus Williams S |
| Re-signed Players | Tyler Huntley QB, Patrick Ricard FB, Calais Campbell IDL, Justin Houston EDGE, Josh Bynes LB, Tony Jefferson S |
| Key Departures | Ty’Son Williams RB, Latavius Murray RB, Marquise Brown WR, Sammy Watkins WR, Bradley Bozeman C, Alejandro Villanueva T, Pernell McPhee EDGE, Tavon Young CB, DeShon Elliott S, Anthony Levine ST, Sam Koch P |
| Key Draft Picks | Kyle Hamilton S, Tyler Linderbaum C, David Ojabo EDGE, Travis Jones IDL, Daniel Faalele T, Jalyn Armour-Davis CB, Jordan Stout P, Damarion Williams CB |
Narrative:
Quarterback
It’s all about Lamar Jackson and his long-term future in Baltimore. Jackson, who is negotiating his own contract, will have all eyes on him as he skips OTAs and prepares to play out this year without a long-term deal. Ultimately, the scenario likely develops that Jackson plays himself into a franchise tag in hopes that injury luck (exemplary thus far in his career until the end of last season) remains and he vaults himself into a new contractual stratosphere. Unfortunately for Lamar, that takes some projection: with a deteriorating offensive line, an inconsistent running game, and a playbook that looked stale, Jackson logged his lowest PFF grade since his rookie campaign. The numbers were somewhat ghastly as well: in 2020, Jackson threw 26 TDs to 9 INTs, ultimately ending up with a passer rating of 99.3 and an ESPN QB rating (which factors in his running more) of 67.3. That 2020 campaign was already a disappointment follow-up to the 2019 MVP season, which featured 36 TDs to 6 INTs IN ADDITION TO over 1,200 rushing yards and 7 scores. He still scored 7 TDs on the ground in 2020 and kept his rushing over 1,000, but the glitzy game displayed turned toward a more realistic level of production. 2021 fell off a cliff. Jackson threw 16 TDs to 13 INTs, an 87 passer rating and 50.7 QBR, putting him closer to average. PFF was less kind, ranking him as the 21st best QB, right above Tua in overall and right below Tua as a passer. For a 2019 MVP, this is quite the fall from grace.
So the Ravens are left with a conundrum: how can they unlock their MVP player again, especially when he seems to be in his athletic prime and enjoying good health? The front office and coaching staff seems to believe the key is doubling down on the planned identity for 2021: run the football. When Marquise Brown was traded, word emerged that the general conservatism of the offense was to blame. The team hinted at such movements during the offseason, signing Morgan Moses, drafting two TEs and a T in the 4th round, not to mention a C in the 1st, and agreeing to jettison Brown. This matters to Jackson insofar as the blitzing numbers are serious cause for concern. Jackson was blitzed the 12th-most in the league, despite missing 5 games and getting knocked out of another. The Dolphins, specifically, provided major ammunition to that number; they blitzed Lamar 26 times in the week 10 contest; no other QB that week was blitzed more than 18. What did the Browns do the very next week? Blitzed Tyler Huntley, starting for an ill Lamar, 26 times. The Ravens want to allow Jackson to thrive in the designed run game while allowing him to hold the ball and scramble; indeed, his 50 scrambles finished 1 behind Josh Allen for the league lead in, again, 5.5 less games. Teams will continue to implement this strategy; are the Ravens prepared to counter?
Coaching
John Harbaugh, quietly the 3rd longest tenured coach behind Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin, lost major consistency on his staff when Wink Martindale departed for New York this offseason. While pundits expressed shock, especially after clearly poor results from the 2021 offense, that change might not be so unwelcome for Harbaugh. The two “part ways” after the defense was absolutely gashed against the pass while finishing surprisingly poor against the run. Like Lamar Jackson, the fall from grace for the defense was gradual (and denied by almost all pundits who adore the Raven approach to team-building) and then precipitous. The Ravens went from 2nd best defensive weighted DVOA in 2019 to 15th in 2020 (while still putting up excellent numbers) to 28th in 2021 while allowing a league-worst 278 passing yards a game. It was a terrible, terrible go. The blame will be put on injuries (Marcus Peters, L.J. Fort, Derek Wolfe, and DeShon Elliott on defense), but the defense is also rapidly aging. New coordinator Mike MacDonald will be tasked with coaching up the rookies in the secondary and ensuring the run defense is more stout than last year, especially at linebacker.
Where fans and pundits did want change, however, is with the offensive playcalling. On October 22nd, Ben Solak for the Ringer wrote the article “This Is The Best Lamar Jackson We’ve Ever Seen” citing, among other things, better completion percentages, excellent yards per attempt, and an increased proclivity for going deep. In less than two months, Steven Ruiz, writing for the same publication, wrote “The Ravens Are Failing Lamar Jackson” after the Ravens averaged less than 17 points per game and scored seven total TDs over the previous five weeks. Simply put, lol. Ruiz references the Dolphins as employing a Kryptonite-level strategy, employing 40 snaps in which no safety was playing deep, noting that Roman’s team has struggled when such tactics are used, and the offense missed the playoffs largely because they never found a counter. This year, the offense doubled down in acquiring new TEs, signing their FB, rebuilding the offensive line, and staying relatively stagnant on the perimeter. Harbaugh believes in Roman, but will it pay off?
Some Dolphins notes: Harbaugh must have been impressed by the Flores staff. He brought Rob Leonard and George Godsey in from the Dolphins to coach edge players and TEs, respectively.
Offense
Jackson may be the talking point, but this offense should be better on the inside, and the team is hoping that is the blueprint for larger success a la 2019, but with a more precise and experienced Jackson. Inside, LG is the only real question mark (Ben Powers and Tyre Phillips return), because the pedigree and results at all of the other major spots in the run game is off the charts. At tackle, Ronnie Stanley is two years removed from being one of the best tackles in the league and is still just 28 years old, while Morgan Moses stacked two consistent years in a row with the Jets and the Commanders. Linderbaum is one of the most lauded Center prospects in a decade, a huge upgrade over Matt Skura/Bradley Bozeman from the last two years, and RG Kevin Zeitler was his same old self at 32 last year. Add in excellent blocking by Patrick Ricard at FB and top weapon Mark Andrews at TE and you have a unit that looks a whole lot more like 2019 than before. At RB, last year’s dashed plan that was scrapped after injuries to Gus Edwards and preseason fantasy football champion J.K. Dobbins is the plan again: both backs are physical and have flashed strong instincts over their careers.
This is the ultimate hope for the Ravens because whew boy, the perimeter is unappealing. Rashod Bateman was somewhat of a disappointment last year, ranking 76th for PFF out of 115 qualifying receivers. Devin Duverney, one of those bad penny types, was 103rd, and the team seems poised to go with 2020 6th round pick James Proche II in the slot. Departing starters Marquise Brown, whose trade was condemned by Jackson on Twitter, and Sammy Watkins received almost 200 targets between the two, and those targets are expected to go to these three receivers as Mark Andrews (2nd in the league with 151 targets) probably can’t be used more than he is already. This is bad, objectively so, and could be a fatal flaw for a team that struggled to contend with stacked boxes.
Defense
This unit also seems to be riding on the notion that health = success, and I find that to be a lackluster response. I mentioned that the team was surprisingly inefficient against the run, especially when teams had every reason to pass all over them. The hope seems to be that Michael Pierce and Travis Jones can couple with the still-great Calais Campbell to free up the field for the underperforming linebackers: Patrick Queen has been a clear disappointment and his presumptive starting partner, Malik Harrison, has yet to demonstrate much. On the edge, Tyus Bowser has continued to ascend in his play outside of the shadow of former teammate Michael Judon, who left last year for the Patriots. On the other side, Odafe Oweh started remarkably strong, but fell off a bit after three fantastic games to open the year. Behind them, Justin Houston is likely to return and newcomer David Ojabo is convinced he can return early in the year after an Achilles tear at the Combine, but he likely needs a redshirt year.
The secondary is going to be rebuilt in key ways, in addition to the returns from injury to the corners above. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey return, and the third CB spot will be a competition between the two rookies, Williams and Armour-Davis, and the veteran Kyle Fuller (who was awful last year). At safety, the Ravens surprisingly invested a lot given the injured and incomplete cornerback room; they gave their only real big contract of the year to Marcus Williams and spent their first pick on Kyle Hamilton, who was seen as a top 5 player in this year’s draft by many. Chuck Clark is still on the team as a capable starter. The Ravens want to build a defense where big plays are minimized, and Mike MacDonald has hinted at a defense that focuses more on innovative coverages behind the blitz than the blitzes that Martindale made his mark with. The three safeties fit that mold, the team still has good corners even as they recover from injuries, and theoretically, this approach could help resuscitate the careers of the linebackers.
Special Teams
Sam Koch retired after the team drafted the excellently-named Jordan Stout as the first punter off the board. Justin Tucker is the god, perhaps the best kicker to ever do it. The sheer power in his leg is unreal. Anthony Levine, the Ravens longtime special team ace, retired this offseason, and it will be interesting to see who emerges to take that place. The Ravens are always deep enough to succeed there.
How Do We Get The Dub?
We get the dub by using a revamped offensive line to protect Tua and allow him to try and decipher confusing coverages with simplified concepts on offense. Tua has been baited into poor decisions due to the combination of pressure and post-snap movement by the defense, and this is a nightmare matchup in week 2. Hill and Waddle will be a handful for any team, but Peters is an old teammate of Hill’s and the safeties will absolutely be capable of stopping the deep shots. Instead, the Dolphins need to scheme up the linebackers in the pass game, letting Edmonds and Gesicki carry the day, and keeping the throws to the WRs short. On defense, bring the damn house again! Lock up Andrews, use the athletic Baker to shadow Lamar and/or contain him, and keep Lamar guessing on where Javon Holland might be. It may be too early for the McDaniel Identity to have taken form and the Ravens seem poised for a fast start, even if the wheels fall off later.
WEEK 2: Ravens 28-17
Dolphins 2-1
