It’s Gambling Szn here in the land of Caesar, and this year, I’m headed to the Palace and/or spending my wife’s life savings! Below are the bets in my parlay, as well as the Lock Of The Week.
Parlay — Six Leg
Kansas City Chiefs Money Line (-250)
Even with Travis Kelce out, is there any better bet than Patrick Mahomes on Thursday Night Football? Patrick Mahomes has never lost an opener, and both of the last two Chiefs Thursday Night Opener performances were drubbings of good teams. The Lions came on strong, but have started slow even in two strong seasons. It may not be pretty, but Chiefs win.
Baltimore Ravens Money Line (-510)
Lamar Jackson will be showing off his new offense against a Texans team that is just now pulling together a fieldable defense. Yes, they have great safeties and a surprisingly effective defensive line, but the Ravens will succeed in targeting LBs all day. Defensively, there’s simply no way C.J. Stroud is up to the task of quick processing needed to beat the complicated looks that the Ravens throw him. One of the best bets of the week.
Washington Commanders Money Line (-350) LOCK OF THE WEEK!!
There’s very little to hope for in Arizona, outside of two potential top picks in next year’s draft. Meanwhile, an offense in Washington is desperate to prove themselves: Eric Bieniemy and Sam Howell are looking for a strong debut, and who better to feature than the worst defense in recent memory? This game is also my Lock Of The Week, which I bet alone to ensure I make my money back from a potential parlay bust. The Cardinals are the first team in years (0-16 Browns, I think) that have looked this limp at the start of a season. Set it and forget it.
Miami Dolphins Money Line (+138)
My first underdog choice. The Dolphins won’t take last year’s Sunday Night Football embarrassment lying down, and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is experienced in what Justin Herbert can do from their time as AFC West opponents. McDaniel and Fangio might be the best team of game-planners in the league right now on paper, and this is their first chance to prove it. The Dolphins also poached Chargers DC Renaldo Hill, himself an excellent former Dolphin, to become their pass game coordinator, and he’ll have plenty of intel on last year’s drubbing. Miami will have their revenge.
Green Bay Packers Money Line (+100)
The Bears may be offseason darlings to improve thanks to receiving help and a defense structured to fit Matt Eberflus, but I’m taking a risk in including them to lose in this parlay. The Packers had far more preseason play and HC Matt LaFleur has a whole lot to prove in his first year without Aaron Rodgers. With a healthy defense and offensive line, the Packers can play bully ball in this game and, provided they rattle Justin Fields, should emerge with a victory.
Buffalo Bills at -2.5 (-100)
The path to a Jets win is obvious (a great Aaron Rodgers performance, a turnover-plagued Bills team) but Buffalo has proven to be a tough outing early in the season each and every year since the Josh Allen emergence. This defense is still wildly tough and the youth on the Bills are ready to arrive. Ken Dorsey destroying a South Florida coach box (and probably a hotel room after) should give you an indication of how seriously Buffalo takes regular season division matchups. The Jets will be motivated to show success early, but so is every team in the NFL. I’m going with a healthy Bills team, as they’re still the class of the division.
Bonus Bets
Outside of the Lock of the Week, where I wagered a larger sum to protect the amount I spent on my parlay, I picked one bonus bet:
Raheem Mostert Over 70 Rushing Yards
Mostert topped 64 rushing yards in 7 of the 17 games last year, including some absolutely explosive outings (18 for 113 against a Jets front and 17 for 136 against the Bills) against really good teams. Mostert will likely receive 15+ carries as Salvon Ahmed and De’Von Achane recover from preseason injuries that will not linger for long. This is a great week to bet Mostert, who can get you 70 any time he touches the ball. My bet is he hits at least two 20+ yard runs, and the final 30 will be a simple matter.
Accounting
Six-Leg Parlay: $5 to win $97.82
Mostert Bonus Bet: $5 to win $13.10
Lock of the Week: $20 to win $25.71
Year to date: +0.00, $100 remaining. $30 wagered in Week 1
