When I hit “Publish” on my betting article last week, I was full of righteous optimism: this was the year I would knock my Week 1 parlay out of the park. After all, I had months to prepare for everything that could come my way, coming up with 6 certainties. Then, I blew it on opening night. Smh, as the kids say (they probably don’t anymore). RECAP! My parlay went 4/6 in fact, with the underdog picks of the Packers and Dolphins hitting hard while the powerhouse Bills and Chiefs let me down. My bonus bet failed to take into account how good Tua would be, and ultimately the team could not afford the extra carries it would take to get Raheem Mostert to 70 yards. When in doubt? DO MORE! Here is Week 2.
Parlay — Ten Leg
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Over 40.5 AND Atlanta Falcons Money Line (+247)
Last week, the Packers put up a mammoth 38 points while the Falcons put up 24 of their own. Simple arithmetic tells you that these teams should pass 41 points combined with relative ease. If you’d like to go deeper, look no further than two offensive-minded HCs who also call plays. The Bears ran against the Packers in Week 1 for 4.4 yards a carry, and the Falcons should do better than that. Jordan Love will have far more difficulty picking apart an improved Falcons secondary. And the game is in a dome to boot. I pick the Falcons to win, but expect the points to come quickly. This bet requires both the Falcons to win and the total combined score to be over 40.5, which fits my game prediction here: Falcons 28, Packers 24.
Detroit Lions Money Line (-220)
Week 1 results served to bury the NFL’s biggest surprise to open the season in years. The Jared Goff led Lions used excellent scheming, good coverage, and a surprisingly-aggressive defense to notch a win against the preseason Super Bowl favorites. Against Seattle, I predict similar success: Seattle is already banged up on the offensive line and fresh off of a difficult performance at home against the diminished LA Rams. Without its two top tackles, the Lions pass rush could feast in this game and Geno Smith, who managed just 112 pass yards last week, will find tough sledding. It’s a 2-0 start for the Lions, I believe.
Buffalo Bills Money Line (-450)
Buffalo played a truly ugly game of football against the Jets, both in the hits they delivered (Rodgers’s blown Achilles and some absolute shots to Zach Wilson) and the opportunities they gave away (4 turnovers to the Jets and a game-winning punt return). There is no earthly way that they do this again, especially in a home opener against an opponent who has some real concerns on defense. The Raiders played efficient football against the Broncos, but the Bills are far more aggressive and have far better personnel. If the Bills *don’t* win, then things get very interesting for their defensive head coach. I’ll take the Bills on a bounce back.
Los Angeles Chargers Money Line (-152)
Speaking of bouncing back, Justin Herbert and the Chargers are fresh off of one of their best offensive outings in years in a LOSS. The poor fans of the LA Chargers were left stunned at a day of 433 total yards gone to waste after the Chargers allowed 536 to Miami. Yes, it is hard to pick a team who just allowed 500 yards at home to go win on the road, but there are a few reasons to believe LA can bounce back: they stopped the run well in Week 1, Justin Herbert looked far more creative, and their offensive coaching seems to have provided real schematic advantages. All spell doom for a Titans team that fields a bad offensive line and looks outmanned on defense.
New York Giants Money Line (-235) LOCK OF THE WEEK!
This is the third, and most critical, bounce back candidate in a row. The Giants got absolutely drubbed in an unholy East Coast rain on Sunday Night, treating America to an early bedtime. Brian Daboll is a good coach, and his offense didn’t look particularly stale. Daniel Jones just got absolutely creamed over and over and over again. The Giants now go to the domed Arizona stadium to face the Cardinals, who played the Commanders tough in week 1 but also did not score an offensive TD in that game. The Giants pass rush and offense as a whole took a real black eye, and will go look to regain some respect down South.
San Francisco 49ers Money Line (-405)
Preseason NFC favorites vs. the worst roster outside of Arizona. Sean McVay is 1-8 in his last nine games against Kyle Shanahan. I rest my case. The Rams beatdown of the Seahawks was a mirage that will come back to Earth this week in a big way.
Dallas Cowboys Money Line (-390)
Another NFC powerhouse fetches a less than stellar opponent. A week after the Bills knocked their star QB out and delivered a few more shots to their backup, the Jets travel to Dallas, who just delivered 7 sacks to Daniel Jones and a host of other QB hits. Stephon Gilmore looks back to his old self, the offense did precisely what it needed to, and Dallas looks to be a top team in the league. The Jets put together an emotional win on Monday Night Football, but the harsh new reality sets in this week.
Miami Dolphins Money Line (-152)
The Miami Dolphins looked far too fast for any team in the league to keep up with and, perhaps more importantly, they shut the Chargers down in the stat sheet when it came to sacks. The Patriots spent much of Week 1 in Cover 0, manning up against the Eagles and trying to disrupt timing. They need a better plan for Miami, who used short motion to demolish the Chargers when they attempted to press. Yes, the Patriots are slightly better at the corner position and across the defense, but I’ll believe this type of defense can keep up when I see it.
Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line (+110)
This might be my most controversial take of the week (and only my second underdog pick) but I like the Steelers on Monday Night, entirely because I do not believe the Browns line, hit by injury at tackle, can keep Deshaun Watson clean. T.J. Watt was a monster against the 49ers, who were efficient enough to throw off the Steelers operation. The Browns may be talented, but I’m not sure they’re efficient.
Bonus Bets
Outside of the Lock of the Week, where I wagered a larger sum to protect the amount I spent on my parlay, I picked one bonus bet:
Miami Dolphins Over 24.5 Points
See above on my Miami pick: there just doesn’t seem to be any way to keep up with a Miami offense. The Patriots will work on slowing the game down, and have traditionally limited the Dolphins offensive attack, but they have yet to see Tua working with his receivers at the height of his powers with McDaniel. A reckoning is coming to New England.
Accounting
Ten-Leg Parlay: $10 to win $795.85
Dolphins Bonus Bet: $5 to win $10
Lock of the Week: $25 to win $35.64
Year to date: -$4.29, $95.71 remaining. $40 wagered in Week 2
