You win some, you lose some, only you don’t really win any. Last week was another week of outsmarting myself, complete with one last bonus bet I was enticed into making by a fun odds boost. Had Nick Chubb played a whole game, taking his over (and Elijah Moore’s under with George Pickens’s over) would have netted me a cool $100 to play with. Alas. The tragedy belongs to poor Nick Chubb, but we all experience the effects in different ways. The Dolphins won, but missed their bonus bet by two hilarious FG mishaps. And the Giants almost lost the rest of my money before ol’ Rog made a call to Vegas and told them he was on his way to see the FBI.
As a result of my learning, I made less bets…JUST KIDDING! I HAVE MORE AND THEY’RE MORE COMPLICATED THAN EVER! On the bright side, I hit on 8/10 last week, including the same game Falcons/Packers bets. “So bet less in your parlays, Taylor.” I won’t. Shut up.
Parlay — Nine Leg
San Francisco 49ers Money Line (-590)
The 49ers are currently 10.5 point favorites for Thursday Night Football. I actually like them to win by at least 20, as the Giants are terrible at what the 49ers do well. They cannot stop the run, nor can they themselves string together drives that feature open receivers. Saquon Barkley is set to miss this game, too. If not for the randomness of Thursday nights, I would bang the over. As it is, 49ers win by a mile.
Tennessee Titans Money Line (+142)
Upset alert! Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury means that the Browns are searching for a new engine on offense. It will not be Deshaun Watson, who leaves himself out to dry with his offensive line by hanging far too long in the pocket. He lost the MNF game almost single-handedly by getting decimated in such a manner. Lost in the fracas was the stark reality that the Browns saw 3 of their top 4 defenders, with two starting the week out of practice (Za’Darius Smith and Greg Newsome). Smoothing the way for Tannehill and company to create efficient offense is extremely bad news for the Browns because they will have their hands full with an excellent defensive line. Tennessee beats Cleveland as road dogs.
Minnesota Vikings Money Line (-110)
I’ll just say it: I don’t like the Los Angeles Chargers. If you lose to the Titans at this juncture, you are a sloppy and cursed team (looking at you, Browns). Making matters worse is that there still has not been an Austin Ekeler sighting after he was hurt in the Miami game. I was at that game and I didn’t like what I saw: Ekeler got up after a play with a noticeable and difficult hobble, only to have Herbert go tempo. The Chargers did so to halt a Miami substitution and I was like “Okay, fine, they’ll have Ekeler run a little flat to the Chargers sideline and he can move toward treatment.” Nope. Herbert snaps the ball and hands directly to Ekeler on a play that gained 2. Miscommunication, a lack of football sense, and general chaos defines the Chargers for the 28th year in a row or whatever. Vikings pass all over them, and win.
Green Bay Packers Money Line (-130)
The Packers are not losing two NFC South games in a row. Against the Saints, the Packers have the weapons to score more points than the Saints can keep up with. Despite some excellent play through the first two weeks, the Saints have played two of the worst offensive lines in the league. That’s not the story against the Packers. They’ll score less than you’d imagine, but the Packers will pull this one out.
Miami Dolphins Money Line (-300)
Ah, the chance to enjoy another Miami Dolphins victory. The Broncos are 3:1 odds to pull this one off, and even that might be generous. Miami is humming with the best offense in the league, and will be attacking a Vance Joseph-led unit that has forgotten how to tackle and showed deeply poor execution against deep and intermediate passes last week. The Denver offense can certainly play if Payton gets some stuff worked out, so it may be closer than it seems, but there’s no way Miami leaves their home opener 2-1.
Buffalo Bills Money Line (-290)
The Bills are storming the capitol this week, much to Jordan Poyer’s delight! (A little MAGA humor for you there, could honestly do it with any fringe weirdo that you’d get out of an NFL locker room). But, yes, the Bills have a powerful QB capable of withstanding their physical pass rush and are executing a quick passing game as well as they did in early 2022.
Dallas Cowboys Money Line (-820) LOCK OF THE WEEK 1!!
The poor, poor Cardinals. And, this week, the poor Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs. Micah Parsons has lined up everywhere this year, striking terror into the hearts of all teams. It just so happens that the teams who actually have to face it (Giants, Jets, Cardinals) are also not very good. Cardinals fans will be left waiting for the silly victory, and there’s no need to harp on it any longer: the Cowboys are more physical, better coached, faster, more versatile, and better in every way. Godspeed, Arizona.
Kansas City Chiefs Money Line (-770)
I actually had to parlay my Sure Thing bet this week because both this and the Cowboys game are so terrible. The Chiefs fetch the Chicago Bears, who were the subject of deeply weird rumors that their DC had been raided by the FBI for illegal images of children. The Bears quickly denied the rumor, instead embracing the less harmful truth that what this coach did in two games was terrible enough. As all of this was breaking online, Justin Fields was at the podium blaming coaches for his terrible mistakes in pass timing, using words like “robotic” and “data overload” which is surely a terrible sign. Luckily, they only get the defending champions. Lol.
Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line (+118)
Last week, the underdog Steelers made me look good with a final defensive TD. This week, they travel to face a similarly-worrisome organization in the Las Vegas Raiders, who are currently working to get healthy on the perimeter. The efficient Raiders may present a challenge similar to 49ers, but the Steelers are back on track defensively and ready to take it out on a former 49ers QB. I like the road dog Steelers to pull their way back up directly into the AFC North race.
Bonus Bets
Outside of the Lock of the Week, where I wagered a larger sum to protect the amount I spent on my parlay, I picked my Dolphins Bonus Bet:
Miami Dolphins Three Leg Parlay: Over 27.5 Points, Broncos Win First Half, Dolphins by -2.5 points
This one, like the last two, probably will not pay off and I will probably be a week late. In week 1, I predicted Raheem Mostert to go off. He did, but in week 2 against the Patriots. In week 2, I picked the Dolphins over 24.5 points and they managed 24 (as documented above). This week, I went a little crazy. The Dolphins win by at least a FG and top 27.5 points by scoring at least 4 TDs. I also believe the Broncos have a good chance to win the first half, as they started strong in each of their opening losses. Miami is due some Adversity Is Opportunity before the big matchup with Buffalo next week. It’s more likely that I hit the over (a week too late on my week 2 bet) and see this one pay off against the Bills. I don’t hate myself as a That’s So Raven style bettor, at least until my wife cancels my credit card.
Accounting
Nine-Leg Parlay: $15 to win $710.52
Dolphins Bonus Bet: $5 to win $66.68
Lock of the Week: $20 to win $30.39
Year to date: -$13.65, $86.35 remaining. $40 wagered in Week 3
