The Dolphins suffered a crushing blow to their season goals last week with a loss to the Buffalo Bills. Mike McDaniel preached and applied all of his positive thinking to one metric throughout the press conferences this year: we must win the division. Miami has not hosted a playoff game in 15 years and, in 2023, will not once more. As the year ended with Miami with a league-leading QB and WR in total production and the NFL’s best total offense by yards, they are one of the most dangerous Wild Card teams in recent memory, but barring an AFC Championship run, (and, honestly, even still with such a run) this season has not lived up to the team’s expectations. They did, however, avoid a rematch with the Buffalo Bills, instead traveling to frigid Kansas City. I previewed the Chiefs team in Week 9.
| Projected Record | 14-3 (ACTUAL: 11-6) |
| Offensive DVOA (2023) | 8th |
| Defensive DVOA (2023) | 7th |
| Players Added From Last Matchup: Chiefs | Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, Richie James WR, Nick Bolton LB |
| Players Added From Last Matchup: Dolphins | De’Von Achane RB, River Cracraft WR, Robert Hunt IOL, Brandon Jones S |
| Last Result | Chiefs 21-14 |
Injury Report
PLAYERS ON IR: Jerick McKinnon RB, Skyy Moore WR, Nikko Remigio WR, Jody Fortson TE, Prince Tega Wanogho T, Nazeeh Johnson S, Bryan Cook S
New Thing 1: God’s Punishment For Losing The Division
As of writing time, the forecast calls for -5 degrees at kickoff in Kansas City. The rumors all week have included -30 windchill and winds up to 40 mph at times during the game. God did not like what Miami did at home last week, and They are cursing this team with whatever they have. What analogs do we have to this historic precedent? The Ice Bowl looks to remain the coldest game in NFL history, at -13 and -48 windchill. Football was played entirely in the run back then, and the Cowboys and Packers beat themselves senseless. The closest parallels in modern times are the 2016 Wild Card matchup between the Seahawks and Vikings and the 2008 NFC Championship between the Packers and the Giants (both played, it must be noted, in Canada basically). What characterizes those games? In the Packers/Giants game, the lesson is Run Or You’re Done. The Giants carried 39 times for 134 yards (not good) but Eli Manning barely topped 50% of passes. On the other side, Favre was the same at 19/35, but his team ran just 14 times (for 28 yards lol). The game went to overtime and the Wild Card team upset the NFC favorites in their house. And you have to remember the Seahawks game: a complete ineptitude on offense from both teams led to 3 Blair Walsh FGs before he hooked a 27-YARDER!!! for the win. Russell Wilson completed half of his passes exactly, and the team rushed 28 times for 97 yards. Teddy Bridgewater was the most accurate of the 4 mentioned but barely and the Vikings ran 29 times for 58 yards. None of the 4 topped 300 yards or even came close. The lessons here are clear: wacky shit will happen, so run the ball and stop the run no matter what else you do. Run 50 times. Just do it.
New Thing 2: Just What The Hell Has Happened to Patrick Mahomes?
As the State Farm Most Valuable Bundler plows through his 6th NFL season as a starter, the end of the regular season has officially marked the 2nd worst season of his career in advanced metrics. Second-worst turnover play rate, second-worst big time throw rate, actual worst yards per attempt, second-worst TD total, second-worst INT total, and second-worst regular season passing yards total. Contrary to popular belief, Mahomes has not suffered more drops or sacks than his previous years: 29 drops experienced this year is about the median for his career, and the 27 sacks fit right in with 4 seasons in which he had 26-28 sacks. No, there are two very worrisome numbers that tell the tale: Mahomes had the longest time to throw rate of his career (3.03 seconds, his first time over 3 and shattering the 2.9 seconds of 2020) while throwing the lowest ADOT of his career (6.8 yards downfield on average, wildly lower than the 7.6 of 2021, let alone the 8.7 low of his first three years). Take away analytics and just watch the games and you’ll see: Patrick Mahomes either throws a screen pass or he pats the ball. There is no quick game in Kansas City. Did it leave with Bienemy? It is downright mysterious why Patrick Mahomes has become so risk-averse if you consider the numbers, but the narrative that a declining Kelce paired with a lack of trust in other receivers has ruled the day. Time will tell, but whether it is this week or next, the Chiefs seem to be preparing for a sad exit as the defending champions.
New Thing 3: Pacheco Emerges and Travis Kelce Blends In
In the Dolphins game, Isiah Pacheco did some good things: 16 carries for 66 yards was his third highest total to that date, and his 42 yards after contact were stellar. He’s a bruiser who fires through a hole like no one else in the league right now, he seems to be through the line before anyone else has even locked in their blocks. In the past three games, though, he’s looked even stronger. He had 110 yards vs. Green Bay before a shoulder injury knocked him out until Christmas Day. Another concussion saw him exit the sloppy win early, but he came back in Week 17 for 130 against the Bengals in a gritty come-from-behind victory. Pacheco is also a fine receiver on screens: after doing essentially no work in the pass game last year, he has 44 catches this year. As Kelce diminishes, Pacheco is the clear #1 option for offensive production. Kelce, meanwhile, has struggled since Week 14, when he finished a run of 3 games with over 81 receiving yards. Against the weak Patriots, Raiders, and Bengals, Kelce managed just 88 combined yards and has not scored since Week 11. Those three games (which featured 3 drops) might be the worst stretch of his career. Both players (and Mahomes) rested in Week 18 despite Kelce needing just 16 yards for 1000 yards on the year, and hope that the break can get Kelce back on track. Someone needs to emerge: in my preview for Week 9, I wrote that no one but Rashee Rice was helping the cause at receiver, and that remains the same.
New Thing 4: A Mediocre Defense Individually, A Strong Defense Collectively
What to make of the Chiefs’ 7th place DVOA finish this year in defense? In large part, this is the reputation of their first half of the year: they were 5th in DVOA when they played the Dolphins in Week 9. But, despite huge slips from certain players, others are holding the team together. Willie Gay and Nick Bolton, who I excessively praised in the last preview, have had bad seasons. Bolton has by far his worst missed tackle season despite improving his pass defense. Gay hasn’t come close to last year’s tackle numbers or run stops despite playing more snaps. So he’s a pass game liability AND nowhere near the tackler he was. The Chiefs have to be thankful for the good play of rotating starters Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal, who both have been strong blitzers and more capable run-fillers. L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have lived up to their billing in my preview, but I also praised safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook, neither of whom were great and Cook is out for the year for Mike Edwards. PFF hates them both. Chris Jones is the only star out there, and they will need the discipline of the scheme to deliver if any of the Big 3 playoff offenses (Ravens, Bills, Dolphins) will be stopped even for a moment.
Game Prediction
Leaving Germany, the Miami Dolphins were kicking themselves for the missed opportunities. Down in a 21-0 hole, they rallied to a missed pass and poor snap away from a tie game in the 4th quarter. A tale of two halves for them, but also for the Chiefs, who were mind-bogglingly poor offensively in the back half of the game. After both teams took their bye, they finished the year at 5-3 (Miami) and 4-4 (Kansas City, though one win was from their reserves in Week 18). Miami’s losses, in their defense, included just one to a team with worse DVOA than them: Buffalo and Baltimore are both in the top 3. Kansas City, meanwhile, lost to inferior opponents in the Eagles, Packers, and Raiders. Both Kansas City and Miami have stretches of excitement and games choked away: both look unstoppable until a unit (Kansas City’s offense and both for Miami) suddenly seem as though they’ve forgotten how football is played. And now both teams enter the crucible of a game in -30 degree windchills. In such games, as noted above, close contests and low scores are to be expected. A QB can risk hand numbness in the 3 seconds they take to wait for a shotgun pass, as analysts online have noted. A Dolphins fan on Discord also pointed out that hydration-related heat injuries and muscle tightness issues we associate with warm weather games are also a risk in the cold, as players have no desire to load up on cold fluids and stay bundled through the entire game.
How much does speed matter here? Kansas City has two physical corners that will match up well with Jaylen Waddle (if he plays) and Tyreek Hill, and they blew up screens all day in Week 9. Will they be able to change direction as fast as Miami in such cold? Or will Miami themselves find their finesse offense stymied when their players cannot get to their angles? Will the Chiefs find success blowing up Miami’s makeshift edge rushing room sans Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Jaelan Phillips? Or will the frigid temperatures mitigate Pacheco’s ability to get to the edge with the speed he needs to win at the second level? There’s really no answer to be found here, and even the simplest ones (Mahomes can run around and he’s a star! The Dolphins are not used to this!) don’t really seem to be forgone conclusions, both in the results from this year and in the reality of the cold.
So, simply put, the disciplined team that busts the least in pass protection, run assignments, run fits, and secondary coverages will win this football game. Funnily enough, neither team can claim to be all that disciplined at this point in the game. To find Kansas City’s best complimentary football from 2023, you have to go back to Week 12’s victory against the Raiders. For Miami, they haven’t played dominant football since Week 15 against the Jets. There isn’t much momentum to be found in this football game. It’s going to be messy. In the mess, I’ll still defer to trust of Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo over the emerging Mike McDaniel and bare-cupboard-suffering Vic Fangio. I’ll still worry about each and every kick or coverage snap from the Dolphins’ woeful special teams. Even if those results to do hold, Miami can confidently say “See you next year” and move into their next bold new schematic jump.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 17-16
Season Record (Taylor’s Picks): 13-4
* = See Glossary
