| Projected Record | 14-3 (ACTUAL: 6-2) |
| Weighted DVOA Offense* (2023) | 5th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense (2023) | 5th |
| Early Down DVOA (2022) | 1st Down – 1st, 2nd Down – 5th |
| Explosive Play Rate* (2022) | Offense – 8th (Run 28th, Pass 2nd), Defense – 2nd (Run 5th, Pass 5th) |
| Key Additions | Blaine Gabbert QB, Richie James WR, Jawaan Taylor OT, Donovan Smith OT, Byron Cowart DI, Charles Omenihu EDGE, Drue Tranquill LB, Mike Edwards S |
| Key Departures | Ronald Jones RB, Michael Burton FB, JuJu Smith-Schuster WR, Bryan Edwards WR, Orlando Brown Jr. OT, Andrew Wylie OT, Khalen Saunders DI, Frank Clark EDGE, Carlos Dunlap EDGE, Juan Thornhill S |
| Rookies to Watch | Rashee Rice WR, Wanya Morris OT, Felix Anudike-Uzomah EDGE |
Injury Report:
On Injured Reserve: Justyn Ross WR (Suspension), BJ Thompson EDGE, Nick Bolton LB
Quarterback:
It’s time for the every-four-seasons-or-so conundrum for the Dolphins: what are we planning to do with Patrick Mahomes? Any conversation about Mahomes as the best QB in the league is asinine at this point, as he is entirely undisputed as the most complete and dangerous QB of the modern era. In his own strengths, he highlights the flaws of every other player attempting to climb the mountaintop. Allen? A basket-case who could never deliver the consistency and patience. Herbert? Scared of even attempting the basic throwing tree down the field. Burrow? Weak arm and pocket maneuverability removes the kind of improvisation you expect from Mahomes each week. Hurts? Can you even imagine what Mahomes would do with the Eagles roster? Patrick Mahomes is bulletproof, untouchable in the pocket, unflappable in the short game, and the answer for every defense the league may throw. It’s a waste of our time to prove that, so let’s instead try to map the story of where the Chiefs are in their trail of destruction. In 2018, in his first year as a starter, Mahomes exploded immediately to the tune of a 5,000 yard season, 50 TDs, and 113.8 passer rating. In terms of TDs and passer rating, these were career highs he may never meet again. That year, Mahomes was out of nowhere. First year starters weren’t supposed to make the plays he did in games and, if they did, they weren’t supposed to do it twice a game let alone about five times a game in every game up to a march to the AFC Championship. One fluke offsides penalty in the AFC Championship game and Mahomes finds himself watching the Super Bowl after, again, one of the greatest statistical seasons of all time. The next year, Mahomes wins the Super Bowl against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. Mahomes’s second season starts a number of trends that have followed him now in his career:
- His average depth of target* drops
- His big time throws* drop
- His turnover-worthy plays* drop
- His yards per attempt stay about the same
- He tears off win after win, regardless of the supporting cast.
The Mahomes experience becomes about finding balance because the adversity he has faced is simply that he’s somewhat too good. So picture this: you’re the best QB the game has ever seen, you can pinpoint with ease what defenses are being thrown at you because your coaches (the wizened Andy Reid and a number of young offensive geniuses) gameplan you to the top of your game every week, and you have the arm to make every throw. Why not launch it deep? Or fake that and just sling one to a Hall-of-Fame TE or, hell, just take off and run because you have a supernatural eye for spacing and you know you can do ten yards and out of bounds with no risk for your receivers or yourself. It’s Video Game QBing; you choose what you’re going to do and the algorithm morphs around you. If you lose, you won’t lose next week. What happens when the defense, then, contorts to force you to do what they want you to do? This was the Fangio idea: simply put two-high safeties on top of EVERY play Mahomes wants to run, effectively removing his ability to pick his poison. So you’ve directed his targets with 0-15 yards: the options, for an elite QB, are now pretty much a horizontal route or a run. As the QB known for unleashing 60 yard dimes, you’re bored, but more importantly, you have lost some control of what happens on the football field. As Dolphins fans, we have some context for defensive dictation. Brian Flores attempted this in Miami and Josh Boyer attempted to continue it: put pressure everywhere on the football field except to one obvious outlet, and then attack that outlet like a holy terror as soon as the defense chooses that route. In some ways, it’s a coverage disguise, but then players like Xavien Howard (who look beat but are physical and quick enough to recover ground instantly) allow you to close down the known exploit in a hurry. This was Mahomes’s new hurdle: how do I play a game that forces me one direction, knowing that the defense expects that, and knowing that sometimes, if I hang on a second longer and resist the easy yardage, I might have Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce deep? 2020 and 2021 were years in which we saw Mahomes live that angst out loud: the poor guy came off of FG and punt drives looking absolutely dejected. He was used to setting the terms! Plus he has a guy like Tyreek Hill demanding his own Hall of Fame numbers, in contrast with the plan of teams to funnel his targets to Anyone-Not-Named-Hill. So out goes Tyreek, far too impatient and in need of a financial commitment that the team can’t justify when teams are so dedicated to removing him from the game (McDaniel may have broken this issue by positing the interesting question of “What if there were two Tyreek Hills?” And, with Mostert and Achane now, “What if there were 4 and 2 played a different position?”).
2022, then, is the retooling, the year Mahomes finally commits to, “Yes, I will throw to that spot you want me to throw to, but I’ll put the maximum amount of pressure on you when I do so.” For instance: who are the worst pass coverage guys on the field? The linebackers. Mahomes and Reid overloaded them with crosses and stick routes all year, essentially calling other teams’ collective bluff that they cannot stay patient and forcing the funnel to be the easiest throw possible. Instead of teams knowing that they were going to bracket Kelce and Hill, leaving an outlet target open, Mahomes and Reid allowed Kelce to make all of his routes Improv Jazz while picking a new receiver every week to feature from any spot on the field. They tore up the area between the hashmarks under ten yards and, as a result, the other team blinked: Mahomes finally had throws over 20 yards available to him again! The Chiefs settled into the war of attrition and rediscovered their artillery. He didn’t throw a massive amount of passes down the field, but a cleaned up short game means that you are all the more lethal when you do go down the field. Mahomes transformed football and then arrived at classic football: take the mismatch, keep ’em honest, and make every snap a chance to be great. It’s like watching a band whose early albums you loved go through a weird He-Kissed-A-Starlet-At-The-Grammy’s electronic phase and arrive home with an album that has that same heartbeat. The only question with Mahomes will be what comes next: what will be the hallmarks of his game this year? Will there be new tools? And, as always, how will he look when the Reid era finally comes to an end? Maybe in my 2026 preview, I’ll have a controversy.
Mahomes, this year, is still plenty great. In fact, with Kirk Cousins injured, this game will feature the two players with most passing yards in the league (Tua at #1 with 2,396 yards and Mahomes just behind with 2,331). Mahomes is tied for 9th with 7.4 YPA*, which is incidentally his exact ADOT*. A 7.4 yards per attempt number is stellar while a 7.4 ADOT is relatively conservative, indicating that Mahomes is still playing within the offense. His big time throw rate is 15th best while his turnover-worthy play rate is 21st. Turnovers have certainly been a problem for Mahomes, plauging the entire team in the 2 losses. He has 8 INTs total, which is problematic, but half of them (and about half of his turnover worthy plays) came against the Jets and last week’s loss against the Broncos. He’s weighed down by some slumping performances. His running ability has never been better, however: in just 36 tries, Mahomes has gained 234 yards. If you take out sneaks, kneels, and blown up plays, Mahomes has 24 scrambles for 243 yards. He literally averages 1st down yardage every time he comes across the line. Teams simply don’t attack him because they know that will be the moment the ball gets launched deep and the field will be flipped. He has become far and away the most efficient scrambler in the league, faster than he looks and perfectly timed runs. While Mahomes has yet to demonstrate 2022’s consistency, he’s still one of the greatest to do it in the prime of his career. I don’t have much more to say to any Chiefs opponent than “Good luck!”
Coaching:
The lead story as far as coaching in Kansas City is the amicable parting of ways between Andy Reid and the always-overlooked Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy has still not gotten the head coach job he has chased since a monumental season in 2018, and so he leaves the shadow of his mentor to prove he has chops on his own, settling in with the Washington Commanders. Reid casts a long shadow: this year, he passed Tom Landry and took sole possession of 4th in all time coaching wins (he will probably stay there, as he would need 54 more to reach George Halas). Their partnership together, along with Patrick Mahomes, has been one of the most electric in league history. Kansas City’s DVOA in Bieniemy’s first year, without control for opponents, was a 35.4%, the highest in a decade of Football Outsiders ratings and just edging out Peyton Manning’s record-setting season in Denver. Mahomes went for 5097 yards and 50 TDs, one of the best seasons in NFL history, and they would have reached the Super Bowl if not for a silly neutral zone infraction that allowed Brady to sneak in for one more Patriots ring. The history from there (another scorching Mahomes performance for his first Super Bowl in 2019, the beatdown against Tampa Bay in the 2020 Super Bowl, the shocking Bengals loss a step away from the Super Bowl in 2021, and the gutsy title run this last year) is one of top-tier play. The Chiefs have played for the AFC Conference every single year of Bieniemy’s tenure, and yet he did not receive the elevation to head coach that predecessors Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy experienced. As Bieniemy departs, Nagy returns to head the offense once more, light years away now from where the Chiefs were with a first-year starter in Mahomes. Reid will still call the plays, his reputation as one of the smartest and most creative play callers still intact. While 2021 was a down year for Reid as he and Mahomes sought to find ways to defeat two-high safety coverages that limited explosive plays, 2022 was a return-to-form, an announcement that the malleable Chiefs will find a way to stay on top eventually. Reid and company worked hard to maintain their offensive line, letting Orlando Brown Jr. walk and signing a combination of Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor to be Mahomes’s new anchor tackles. They seem content with a young receiving room of unproven guys outside of Travis Kelce. Reid has all that he needs right now to reach the mountaintop again and flex all of his creative muscles, even if the halcyon days of a prime Travis Kelce and a young Tyreek Hill are behind him.
Defensively, the Chiefs again field an average unit, losing some veterans and gaining some others in an effective reload. Steve Spagnuolo has remained with the team since 2019, and seems almost as entrenched as Reid at this point. An accomplished defensive coordinator who has anchored championship-caliber defenses for both the Chiefs run and the 2007 Giants, his 11-41 record as a head coach means he has probably maxed out his position in the league. Last year, Spagnuolo’s unit found success as a middling roster, with young corners helped by the league’s 5th best pressure rate*. To counter the Chiefs offensive juggernaut and strong pass rushing, teams targeted them at one of the top 10 lowest depths in the league, endeavoring to stay on offense as long as possible. Spagnuolo will always face short passes and runs as teams seek to keep Mahomes off the field. While it may mean efficient play for an opposing offense (95.3 passer rating allowed, tied for 5th worst with Miami), it doesn’t necessarily translate to wins when you’re playing Patrick Mahomes. Otherwise, the Chiefs are the picture of average on defense: an average number of INTs, average number of passing yards surrendered, and average yards per run surrendered. Average is just fine for the Kansas City Chiefs on defense because average will win you far more games than you will lose with one of the greatest offensive minds and greatest QBs ever working together on the sidelines. This year, however, the defense is far from average. Yes, the Chiefs finally have a good defense, 5th best in DVOA and responsible for a few wins themselves. PFF does not love the unit, listing only Chris Jones as playing truly All-Pro level, but from my own eye test, this defense has been absolute quality. 2022 1st round pick George Karlaftis is balling, with 39 pressures on the year to Jones’s 30. PFF hasn’t shown love to versatile players L’Jarius Sneed, Justin Reid, and Drue Tranquill either, but together, these dudes keep making tackles, closing passing windows, forcing turnovers, and generally wreaking havoc. The Chiefs again are pressuring QBs at an astonishing rate, 2nd in the league with 28 sacks, tied with Buffalo and just a single sack above Miami. This is the Spagnuolo system at its absolute finest: No-Name (outside of Chris Jones), physical as all hell, and versatile enough to match any style you want to play.
Offense:
It’s strange days in the offensive personnel rooms, where shuffling at many key positions has already taken place in the afterglow of a Mahomes-led Super Bowl. This team has far fewer playmakers and far more questions on the offensive line than their opponents in that game, and it will be interesting to make sense of the pecking order behind Travis Kelce. As far as truly potent weapons go, however, there might not be a more consistently dominant presence in the league now than Taylor Swift’s beau. Kelce has been top 5 at his position by PFF grading* every year since 2016. He plays an almost equal amount in the slot, out wide, and inline at TE. Last year, he led the league in TDs with 16, was 4th in total receiving yards with 1,596 (he broke his own record for TE receiving, while out-receiving the next TE on the list by 500 yards), and his 137 catches led the league among all positions. 2022 might be remembered as the season that gets him to Canton. He is on pace for 1,416 yards this year in a season where he’s already lost a game to injury. Isiah Pacheco had a strong season as an unheralded rookie, topping 1000 yards on the ground while adding an eye-opening 19 catches for 195 yards. He seems to be entrenched with Jerrick McKinnon, but is the back to watch. He has been respectable this year, with 3.1 yards after contact per run and a PFF elusiveness score* of 70, both good for around 15th. He has the 9th most rushing yards and a 4.3 yards per carry average, both good! It all gets wonky from there. The rotation of receivers is still coming together: the league leader in targets has 88, 46 players have more than 44, and no Chiefs receiver has topped 38 targets (Kelce has 67). Kadarius Toney was acquired last year after the Giants dumped the young first-rounder for a 2023 3rd round pick due to issues of attitude and injury. He has received the hype as the true #1, with his speed setting off Tyreek Hill comparisons instantly. Toney has been effectively benched, with 26 yards over the last 3 games. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the actual field stretcher last year, and pulled in 49 catches for 809 yards. He was the same guy we saw in the best of his Green Bay years, and will do exactly what is needed: this year, he is averaging 19 yards a catch (good) on 12 catches (not good). Instead, the clearly best piece in the Chiefs WR room is Rashee Rice, the rookie 2nd round player. With 30 catches for 361 yards, he’s the only member of the receiving corps to top 2 yards per route run. His 2.47 yards per route run* is 11th in the league, and genuinely impressive for a guy who has to share the field with Travis Kelce. Valdes-Scantling leads the team in receiving snaps, while Justin Watson and Skyy Moore round out the rotation. The team took Moore in the late 2nd after draft pundits had him as a borderline 1st-round pick in the 2022 draft. As a rookie, Moore struggled to break through, finishing with 27 catches for 267 on a lesser 1.28 yards per route run. It’s been more of the same this year. The Chiefs are tightening their rotation to 4 players, with Rice the biggest threat to keep the chains moving.
The offensive line reshuffling was surprising to many analysts: the Chiefs jettisoned both starting tackles after the Super Bowl win. The expectation was that at least one OT would be kept, especially after the memory of Mahomes running for his life in the 2020 Super Bowl. Orlando Brown Jr. walked for a surprisingly affordable deal in Cincinnati: Brown was fine in pass protection for Mahomes as a left tackle, but did allow the most pressures in the league. Some caveats to that pressure note: because of the pass heavy nature of the Chiefs, Brown also led the league in pass blocking snaps, with 100 more than the next closest player. He also allowed just 6 sacks, a fine number considering the pressure opportunities. Donovan Smith replaces him on a cheap 1-year deal, one year removed from strong play. Smith was injured in week 1 of 2022 and never really bounced back, toughing out 13 games of pedestrian play. If he’s healthy, he has been a quality starter. Whether health or age is the issue, Smith has not performed well in 2023: he has allowed 29 pressures (3rd worst in the league) and offered very little movement in the run game. The multi-year tackle solution is actually at right tackle, where Jawaan Taylor picked up a 4-year, $54 million deal. With just 21 pressures last year, Taylor is an athletic and borderline-elite pass blocking talent, but he was PFF’s most hated run blocker last year, scoring dead last among 79 tackles. He is 312 pounds, far from the mauler many other teams keep at RT. He’s no better in the run game than Smith in 2023, has allowed 21 pressures of his own, and leads the league with 11 penalties (the next closest is 8) due to a propensity to try and jump the snap count to get to his mark. It’s a really weird habit. The Chiefs surely hoped to upgrade their total pass protection by making this move, but they sacrificed in the run game while also punting on the future at the position. They did not achieve their intended goal in the first half of the season. They make sense as a candidate for a tackle in next year’s draft. The interior of the line was supposed the real strength, however, where anchor Creed Humphrey is fresh off of two straight years as the best graded center in football. Humphrey has played in the NFL for two years. Early returns suggest a Nick Mangold-type player, an absolute game-wrecker of a run blocker who stands among the best as a pass blocker. That the Chiefs passed so frequently and still had a 1000 yard rusher is likely entirely a credit to Humphrey and his fellow guards. Those guards are no slouches either: 30-year-old Joe Thuney has lived up to his high contract (as much as any guard can) to deliver invincible pass blocking through his two seasons in Kansas City. Trey Smith, drafted in the same year as Humphrey in the 6th round, has also been surprisingly useful as an average pass blocker with a mean attitude in the run game. None of the 3 have been stellar this year: Thuney is on pace for his worst pressure rate since 2017, Humphrey is delivering less run game oomph, and Smith has yet to demonstrate he’s as good as his rookie season according to PFF. With Mahomes there to deliver miracles, there is a premium for consistency that makes his life easier. The Chiefs made efforts this offseason to center that consistency around an offensive line that leans on opposing defenses in the run game while continuing to fortify pass protection on the edges. Despite poor play by PFF’s standards and a lot of pressure, the Chiefs surprisingly lead the league in pass block win rate*, the good-everywhere-is-better-than-great-somewhere principle in action. The leaning in the run game has not happened, however, and the edges are folding. The Chiefs have made the calculated gamble we recognize from the Patriots dynasty: having a great QB means surrounding him with efficient and consistent players. Are they still rediscovering their form or letting their generational talent down? The offense is certainly no unstoppable force, and needs reinforcements no matter how the season ends.
Defense
That pesky Chiefs defense always seems to be the Achilles Heel of a Mahomes title run and yet, without marquee stars or many high-priced individuals, they manage to do just enough to make it work. Likely due to how much passing teams need to do to keep up, the Chiefs often do not look so good in the scoring categories: 15th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed tracks with the 14th ranked DVOA defense in 2022. And yet they were the second best defense at stopping explosive plays that year. Sound fundamentals from good-not-great players is the bread and butter, and there’s no reason to believe that this year will not be the same. On the line, everything flows through the best defensive interior player not named Aaron Donald (apologies to Christian Wilkins). After a 2021 campaign saw Chris Jones take a lesser role as an edge rusher on 200 of his 764 snaps, Jones moved back inside for more than 90% of snaps and produced an unhinged pressure rate. According to PFF, Jones put up 97 pressures, which is third among all players not simply players in the same positions. Edge defenders tend to dominate pressure numbers because interior players, especially great ones like Jones, are double teamed, and yet he wrecked pass games all year. He had 8 games with more than 5 pressures and was a tackler on 17 sacks, good for 4th in the league and 4 more than the next closest interior player. Jones is steady if not elite against the run, but his pass rushing means easier opportunities in coverage for the whole back seven and diminished attention for the edge rushers in addition to the clowning he does to interior lineman. Jones has 30 pressures in 2023, with weeks 6 and 7 (13 pressures) marking a return to form after he held out for a contract all the way through week 2. Next to him, however, most of the question marks for the Chiefs also play on the line. Charles Omenihu will play at edge, signing a rich two-year, $16 million deal to replace the snaps from Frank Clark last year. Omenihu came alive in his 4th year, tallying 62 pressures after only having 97 pressures in his career over the first three years. He is a terrible run defender, but the Chiefs hope they can rely on him for pur pass rush snaps: the 49ers managed to keep him to 182 run defending snaps on a career high 659 snaps, and the Chiefs will do the same. Omenihu is playing in just his 3rd game on Sunday after a lengthy suspension to start the year for a domestic violence case before the 2022 season. George Karlaftis, the 2022 first-round rookie, was god awful last year, beaten like a drum in the run and providing 49 pressures (a decent mark, 32nd of 57 qualifying starters) on a whopping 828 snaps. But among players with at least his number of opportunities (564), it was the lowest mark in the league. He’s delivered far more with his opportunities in 2023, with 39 pressures already, but his good plays are mixed in with ones where he gets pushed around. First round rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah will hope to rotate in, and seems to be a player with pro-ready tools if he is strong enough to handle year one. Mike Danna held down Omenihu’s spot just fine as Felix worked to integrate into the league, providing 22 pressures and good tackling that proved he can help with the rotation. The rest of the interior is troubling: Derrick Nnadi had good years to start his career, but managed just 7 run stops on 444 snaps. He is rarely injured, but with play like that, that’s little comfort, and there is little depth. As of now, no interior defender has stepped up to complement Jones.
After leaving the front, we find an intriguing amount of Kansas City’s young core, starting with two excellent LBs who will not play in this game. Nick Bolton cleaned up all the Chiefs issues with run defense upfront with an amazing eye for seeing through traffic and attacking: how can you argue with 180 credited tackles by ESPN in 2022?! The guy mixes it up with the best of them, and with a miniscule missed tackle rate, he ensures teams don’t make up much YAC* underneath. He was put on IR before the Broncos game last week with a dislocated wrist that required surgery. He will be replaced by Drue Tranquill, who was brought over from the rival Chargers on a one-year deal to provide depth and work in coverage situations: he is serviceable in all areas, but he excels in coverage more than with physicality upfront. In 2023, he’s been great rushing the QB to go with quality coverage. Willie Gay Jr. will also miss the game: he is not the level of run defender that Bolton is, with a career 14.3% missed tackle rate that is nearly double that of Bolton. Gay had been much better this year, cutting that rate to 6%, and had been especially good over the last 3 weeks in many areas of the field. Tranquill will instead pair with Leo Chenal, a 2nd-year player from Wisconsin drafted the same year (and just behind) Dolphins LB Channing Tindall. Chenal is a high-effort point-and-shoot LB with insane athleticism. Despite ranking as #36 on PFF’s Big Board, he slipped past pick 100 because he broke up 2 passes in his entire career at Wisconsin. Despite a decent pass coverage score from PFF, he has a career 16/16 catches allowed in his coverage over two years*. Tranquill and Chenal are good, but a far cry from Bolton and Gay Jr. wreaking havoc in the Super Bowl. On paper, the secondary might right now be the best the Chiefs have had in years, with few clear weak spots. Corners Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed both appear to be top 20 corners based on last year’s results, and that makes competing with the Mahomes-led offense that much more challenging. Sneed, a former 4th-round pick from a small school, has always been a top-half of the league starter over three years, but he took a massive step up last year, allowing just 13 catches on 33 passes in man coverage. He contributed 3 picks and 8 pass breakups, and an eye-popping 101 tackles in his first year splitting time between slot and outside corner. In 2023, he is a pure outside player again and, despite a lack of love from PFF on a play-to-play basis, has allowed a 68.8 passer rating* with 1 INT and no TDs allowed. Sneed has stepped up well, though his 10 penalties are troubling. Trent McDuffie, meanwhile, lived up to his billing in the first round in 2022. Undersized at 5’11” and 193, McDuffie makes up for his limitations in press by being physical and quick as hell: he reminds you of Brent Grimes at his best, who himself played at 5’10” and 180. McDuffie had the 4th best mark in yards per reception while in zone in 2022 thanks to sound tackling and contesting on routes, and the future will likely be brighter still if Sneed departs to free agency next year. The theme for the entire Chiefs defense, however, is depth and no position is worse than CB. Jaylen Watson was picked on after being thrust into the starting lineup as a 7th round rookie in 2022, and has been forced to play this year. Everyone thereafter is some other version of day 3 draft pick competing for 4th corner, including a guy legitimately named DiCaprio Bootle (born the same year as the film Titanic came out, I actually love this dude), and so Sneed and McDuffie better embrace the ice baths for the team to maintain success. They’ve stayed healthy this year, thankfully, and the other corners have played sparingly by most of the league’s CB rotation standards. At safety in 2022, Justin Reid looked like the player we saw in his first two years at Houston: he was a far more willing run defender with a new contract, tallying 27 stops, and did not allow a pass in his coverage to go beyond 34 yards. In 2023, Reid is allowing a QB rating of 66, but has missed more tackles than last year. Dependability is a huge asset for a safety, especially in a new system, and Reid remains somewhat inconsistent. That said, his emergence cushions the blow of the second major departure of the ballooning Chiefs salary cap: Juan Thornhill left for a big contract with the Cleveland Browns after a stellar year in coverage for the Chiefs. His replacement is Bryan Cook, who allowed 3 TDs with only 3 pass breakups in a rotational role. Cook was himself a second-round pick who needs to deliver on the investment this year. He’s off to a mediocre start, allowing 3 TDs in coverage but playing centerfield for a team that mostly limits explosive plays. The Chiefs have asked Reid to play a lot more in the slot and in the box, which has led to more play time for Mike Edwards, a free agent from Tampa Bay. He is, to my eyes, better than Cook and will likely be in frequent use against the explosive Phins. In terms of personnel, it’s pretty simple: healthy Chiefs starters will deliver assignment-sound, team-based defense to repeat as above average. They were PFF’s 2nd highest graded coverage team in 2022 despite no individuals grading above 75.7 in coverage. If everyone is good, then you are great. All teams strive to be “greater than the sum of their parts,” but the Chiefs defense has embodied that principle for years, perhaps never more than 2023.
Special Teams
Like every non-Mahomes piece of the Chiefs, this unit is right at average, 19th in DVOA in 2022. The headliner is Tommy Townsend, PFF’s best punter last year. Townsend is a boomer, with the second longest average per attempt and the 2nd longest punt of the year (a 76-yarder). He also had the second longest hangtime: add it all up, and you have an incredibly efficient punter. He also had the third fewest punts on the year, behind the Dolphins and Bills, so who needs a punter anyway? Harrison Butker is now a Chiefs legend, hitting game-winners in the AFC championship and Super Bowl from 45 and 27 respectively. Butker missed much of the year with a broken ankle, and came back to hit a 62-yarder against the Bills. All in all, though, Butker was inconsistent, just 24/31 on FGs. He has yet to miss this year, 18/18. His nickname is Butt Kicker. The Chiefs had a poor return game in 2022, letting 11 different dudes return kicks and never finding a guy to crack 21 yards a return. They tried to fix the issue this year, even trading for old standout Mecole Hardman, but Hardman muffed a punt that essentially lost the game last week. Full-time fair catches are wisest, I believe.
Game Prediction
It’s the biggest game of the week, and potentially the biggest game of the year given the reality that both teams will likely be in the mix for the conference at the end of the year. Complicating matters is that these teams don’t know each other in the slightest. The last time the Chiefs and Dolphins squared off was in 2020, when Tua had, to that point, a career game in garbage time, bringing the Dolphins within 1 score after being down 3 scores in the 4th quarter. Tua was playing in the Chan Gailey-led Flores offense, and utilized Mike Gesicki for the comeback. A Tyreek Hill jet sweep buried the Phins. Hill is, of course, on the other sideline, playing his first game against Reid and Mahomes. That game was also the only time the Dolphins ever faced Mahomes, picking him off 3 times in the game. Nothing can really be learned from that game, of course, as the Dolphins will blitz far less than their old version. Instead, Miami will count on their secondary, with starters fully healthy for the first time all year, to harangue a group of poor WRs and Travis Kelce. If they can lock in, edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will be the keys to the game against two tackles giving up a metric ton of pressures. Mahomes loves to work up and down the pocket, and removing his ability to step up will be major for Miami. Some key matchups to watch:
- Chris Jones vs. the Miami OL: Jones has lined up all over the field (inside for 128 snaps, over the tackle for 140 snaps, and at edge for 58 snaps). Everyone but Terron Armstead can expect to see him. With two offensive guard starters out, the Chiefs would be wise to simply leave Jones in his normal spot. He will make plays.
- Chiefs LBs vs. the Miami pass game: Chenal and Tranquill may be decent in pass coverage and above-average blitzers, but Miami will seek to compromise them. Braxton Berrios is a useful weapon this game, as are passes to the RBs and intermediate crossers to the usual weapons. Tua has picked apart zones this year, struggling most against a healthy Matt Milano and, in 2022, Fred Warner of the 49ers. Good LBs are very helpful against the McDaniel offense, and Miami is hoping the two backups are not ready for their speed.
- Steve Spagnuolo vs. Mike McDaniel: The Eagles started a trend against Miami, selling out to blow up the run and force Miami to pass. Teams have been wary to do this due to the dual threat of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but this is actually quite wise. Miami’s pass game has thrived on the threat of the run, utilizing Alec Ingold to force teams into pass-favorable looks. Can Spagnuolo decode Miami’s tendencies?
- Vic Fangio vs. Patrick Mahomes: Fangio’s defense came alive the past two weeks, forcing game-changing turnovers against both the Eagles and the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes is having a particularly turnover-prone season, caught pressing to his relatively poor supporting cast. He has also traditionally struggled against the looks Fangio-style defenses throw more than most. Of course, he went 6-0 against the Fangio Broncos, so any notion that Fangio has Mahomes’s number is silly.
Both teams have All-Pro talent, both teams have top 5 QBs who are MVP candidates, and both teams have something that the other covets (the Dolphins roster is missing a Kelce and Jones, while the Chiefs clearly miss a Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey). Andy Reid and Mike McDaniel, while at different portions of their careers, are probably the two best coaches in football at this point. The Chiefs need to rebound from a division loss last week (one where Mahomes had the flu and has since recovered) and the Dolphins need to prove they can beat good teams to lock down the division. This is the matchup you dream of, and it kicks off in the early morning for the USA, two electric offenses to go with your morning coffee. The game itself is even according to Vegas: the Chiefs carry a 1.5 point favorite designation, next to nothing. One final note: the Chiefs have carried a far bigger fan presence this weekend in Frankfurt, and it may well feel like a Chiefs home game. I’ve tossed this one back and forth in my head: if I can’t make a decision that way, I’ll go with my heart. Miami wins, its offense finally dismantling an otherwise good team unfamiliar with their game, and their defense pressing to pressure Mahomes all day, both at the line and downfield.
Game Prediction: Dolphins 34-28
Season Record (Taylor Picks): 7-1
NEXT WEEK: Bye Week! Then Raiders
* = See Glossary
