| Projected Record | 10-7 (ACTUAL: 12-3) |
| Weighted DVOA Offense* (2023) | 4th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense (2023) | 2nd |
| Early Down DVOA (2022) | 1st Down – 5th, 2nd Down – 9th |
| Explosive Play Rate* (2022) | Offense – 9th (Run 1st, Pass 29th), Defense – 4th (Run 3rd, Pass 13th) |
| Key Additions | Josh Johnson QB, Malik Cunningham QB, Melvin Gordon RB, Odell Beckham Jr. WR, Nelson Agholor WR, Laquon Treadwell WR, Sam Mustipher IOL, Jadeveon Clowney EDGE, Kyle Van Noy EDGE, Rock Ya-Sin CB, Ronald Darby CB, Arthur Maulet CB, Andrew Adams S |
| Key Departures | Kenyan Drake RB, Demarcus Robinson WR, Sammy Watkins WR, DeSean Jackson WR, Josh Olvier TE, Ja’Wuan James OT, Ben Powers IOL, Trystan Colon-Castillo IOL, Calais Campbell IDL, Jason Pierre-Paul EDGE, Vince Biegel EDGE, Justin Houston EDGE, Kyle Fuller CB, Marcus Peters CB, Chuck Clark S |
| Rookies to Watch | Zay Flowers WR, Trenton Simpson LB, Keaton Mitchell RB |
Injury Report
Players on IR: J.K. Dobbins RB, Keaton Mitchell RB, Devin Duverney WR, Mark Andrews TE, Andrew Vorhees IOL, Malik Hamm EDGE, David Ojabo EDGE, Tyus Bowser EDGE, Jalyn Armour-Davis CB, Ar’Darius Washington CB
Quarterback
It’s time for the Ravens to unlock Lamar Jackson. John Harbaugh finally made the league’s most awaited coaching decision and dropped the antiquated Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman for the hot new college coach Todd Monken. Monken is, of course, not hot or new, instead a somewhat successful NFL coach who has piloted an incredibly successful SEC team. Regardless, the changes might be more immense than any other team in football this year and, as such, there’s little to understand about Lamar Jackson from his past numbers. We’ll look into it anyway. First, there’s no need to belabor the point: Lamar Jackson is probably the most athletic QB to ever lace up cleats. You’d have to put him somewhere within the top 10 runners in the league. Not among QBs, in the actual real NFL. His highlights from 2019 were some of the greatest ever put to tape from the QB position. 2020 was another decent year, marred as it was by COVID. Both 2019 and 2020 saw Lamar run for 1000 yards. In a more pass-heavy offense with better weapons, we might never see Lamar top 1000 yards again, which is sad for us but great for the longevity of his career. He has 166 carries for over 10 yards (plays deemed explosive on the ground by many analysts), beating Josh Allen’s 128 for best in the league over the last five years (if you extrapolated the last two years of Jalen Hurts, his only two as starter, he’d still be short with 152). That matters in the pass game because, even in an injury-plagued 2022 season, Lamar Jackson emerged in the 92nd percentile out of play action* and the 84th percentile on first and second down*. Lamar’s threat with the ball in his hands as a runner is a huge contributor to these numbers: Jackson can throw with far more ease when the defense stacks the box on 1st and 2nd, and use play action to draw even more in. It also sets him up for looks that he loves the most: intermediate passes between 10 and 20 yards. Jackson clears the field of linebackers by drawing them in, then feathers passes right behind them and in front of safeties who are forced to respect his ability and desire to show off the big arm. Or, in this year’s case, that feather is a bonafide rocket launcher. This is Lamar Jackson’s game, now five years into establishment. So what else can he do to expand his game, and what has this year proven thus far?
For one, he can expand outside of the TE position. Jackson threw to the slot at the highest rate of any QB in the league last year, with 40% of those targets going to TEs. Mark Andrews is indeed great, but after his injury, other players need to step up to remove the defense’s ability to key in on certain concepts and players. He can throw more to his left, as Jackson favors the ability to break out to the right and keep his mechanics tight, threatening defenses with both the run and the pass. More designed looks to the left side will help keep defenses honest, his target chart was a sea of blue out there in 2022*. He can keep looking to hone his game against the blitz. Jackson (and, more likely, Greg Roman) were awfully conservative against the blitz for a guy with a cannon arm who is wildly escapable. Jackson attempted just the 15th average depth of target* against the blitz, which is somewhat of a waste. Mahomes, for instance, goes yard against the blitz frequently, recognizing that he can more easily manipulate fewer defenders and has the athleticism to buy time. To be clear, Jackson was fine against the blitz with the 9th highest EPA/play*, and the notion that the Dolphins defense wrote the book against him in 2021 is greatly exaggerated (see his career long 79-yard TD run in 2022 against Josh Boyer for proof). He can get a solid quick game together, as he’s actually surprisingly good at throwing within 2.5 seconds*. Indeed, he had the NFL’s best passing grade last year when throwing within 2.5 seconds. Play calling that prioritizes rhythm as a thrower could be a major gamechanger. On longer developing plays and improvisational runs, you’re fine with a guy who is that athletic just running around for 6 seconds or something absurd, but that neglects Jackson’s real skill in diagnosing and delivering quickly like any elite traditional QB. Finally, and I hate saying this because of the stereotypes associated with the position, but Jackson could stand to be more accurate as a passer, especially in late-game situations. While he will never top charts because of how unorthodox he is in breaking the pocket and improvising, Jackson has never been better than 24th in PFF accuracy charting*. It is a recipe for negative plays, and Jackson has, in turn, always averaged a higher rate of negatively-graded plays. What does Todd Monken have in store? This is the question on everyone’s mind entering 2023.
Was it that question or basic collusion post-Deshaun Watson that kept teams from bidding on Lamar when he hit the open market on a transition tag? We may never know, but we do know that at least 27 teams could have benefitted from sending an offer for the still-young star. Jackson signed a 5 year, $260 million dollar deal with the Ravens instead, and the deal has instantly seen dividends with the Ravens still favorites to make the Super Bowl in the AFC. In a completely new offense, Jackson has reshaped his game: he currently has the lowest ADOT (9.0) and highest adjusted completion percentage* (76.7%) of his career. He has 534 dropbacks in 15 games, already 70 more than his career high (if he plays the rest of the season, he might have a whole four games worth of extra dropbacks). Those extra dropbacks have paid off with the 2nd highest yards per attempt* (7.7) and most yards (3,357) of his career, and with 22 big time throws* from PFF, also has made more plays with his arm. Interestingly enough, Jackson has the longest time to throw of his career thus far with 3.17 seconds*. My theory is that creative freedom (and deeper route concepts than the Ravens PA and RPO game) and better line play than the last two years has allowed Jackson to run around and buy time. Against blitzes in the past, Jackson was coached to throw the ball early and safely. This year, he has the highest yards per attempt against the blitz (7.5) since his MVP season when teams had no idea how to handle the Ravens run and exclusively sent run blitzes. The eye test speaks to all of this: the Ravens may struggle in spurts, especially when those blitzes get home or their play calling gets predictable. But Lamar Jackson sheds tackles in the pocket, moves up and down within it as well as he escapes it, and is piloting the 5th most effective offense by yards and 1st most effective run game (they have 17 yards per game more than the 2nd place Bears, the same sized gap as that between 2nd and 10th). Lamar Jackson, and his team, are equal parts efficient and electric.
Coaching
In the 2022 offseason, I wrote of the coaching in Baltimore that the fall from defensive grace, despite its root in injuries, called for enlightened new solutions in Baltimore. The firing of blitz-happy Wink Martindale as DC at the end of the 2021 season paved the way for change that is now being met by a huge change on offense to one of the most spicy OCs hired this year. In many ways, the offense is kind of a mirror image to the defensive shift: injuries and general discontent, as well as an increasingly gimmicky operation, led to a general malaise felt up and down the unit, which put together competent but uninspired results. Let’s start with last year’s defensive shift. I wrote in 2022 that “New coordinator Mike MacDonald will be tasked with coaching up the rookies in the secondary and ensuring the run defense is more stout than last year, especially at the linebacking level.” Check and check. Kyle Hamilton was one of the best safeties in football in the back half of last year, offering the versatility to hop out into the slot and playing his best there. Having such a physical presence located in the middle of the field solved many of the run issues too, with the Ravens getting younger upfront and seeing their explosive run allowed rate fall to third-best in the league. That tracks with gains in overall efficiency, moving up to 7th best in DVOA against the run in 2022. And, after the trade for Roquan Smith that season, no unit improved more than the linebacker unit, which absolutely cleaned up against the run without allowing liabilities in the pass. MacDonald values flexibility up and down his roster, and we saw that immediately with varied usage, and a good balance of veteran contributions. MacDonald, the youngest DC in the league last year, was indeed a breath of fresh air for a notoriously idiosyncratic operation under the NFL’s 3rd-longest tenured head coach (Harbaugh must be annoyed that he’ll always be a year behind Tomlin). That was 2022: in 2023, MacDonald has evolved again, crafting game-specific plans that all hinge on the safeties and linebackers taking away the opponent’s entire middle of the field operation, slowing down their processes and allowing the vets on the line to annihilate opposing QBs. It’s working to the tune of the 2nd highest amount of takeaways in the league. MacDonald has expertly patched over the lack of high quality corners (a 2022 problem that led to the 42-38 collapse in Miami) by allowing them to focus on man coverage outside (they play it at the 11th highest rate, a quarter of the time) and take simple zones with an emphasis on good tackling (which has 100% happened this year). It’s a masterclass in defense, and it doesn’t take an expert to see a Raven in the area bothering ball carriers all game.
On to the offensive change, which sees Greg Roman depart and yet another college phenom, Todd Monken, enter the picture. The similarities end here between Monken and MacDonald: Monken is a 57-year-old tried-and-true NFL and NCAA legend. Indeed, he started coaching under Lou Holtz in 1991, when MacDonald was in preschool in Boston. Monken has seen it all, serving as OC for the first time in 2011, where he propelled the 27-year-old Brandon Weeden into the first round with an unbelievably efficient air raid attack at Oklahoma State. He took his first head coaching job after that, restoring the storied Southern Mississippi program to the conference championship after taking over a team on a 23-game losing streak. He finally made the NFL transition from there, going to Tampa Bay and coaching Jameis Winston with a little dash of Fitzmagic. When Bruce Arians arrived, Monken moved to the ill-fated 2019 Browns under Freddie Kitchens and, with that nightmare in mind, Monken promptly moved back to the South and settled in at Georgia, where he schemed up (with Kirby Smart) the most effective and creative offense of any of the powerhouse NCAA teams. Monken has become the spacing guru, stressing the need to use every inch of the football field. It is music to Lamar Jackson stans’ ears, as the exceedingly talented and explosive QB was often pigeon-holed into a power run offense that kept passing plays simple over the middle of the field. Lamar wants to throw deep! Monken wants to throw deep! But to get those explosive plays, you need a passing game that feels dangerous all over the field. A concerted effort will be made to unlock the QB, and a rebuilt WR room allows Monken the chance to do just that. As a cherry on top, Monken’s offenses featured TEs prominently at Georgia, and the expectation is that he’ll have plenty of variety within his playbook to scheme up touches for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. In Mike MacDonald, the Ravens found a flexible coordinator with a mind for mixing up his scheme as needed. Monken offers much of the same, less idiosyncrasy and more of an effort to create a modern and multiple NFL offense. This is the dream scenario for Ravens fans and it’s working: in the Lamar Jackson section, I explained how effective the passing game is now. The run game is potentially even more interesting, best in the league with Lamar on pace to scramble for the most yards of his career (395 to 2019’s 430). Monken has designed an offense that understands how to craft a structure that allows for creativity, one that is entirely in sync with the trends of college football but crafted far more finely to allow for the more complicated defenses of the pros. As of this week, I have yet to see a game where a team had four quarters worth of non-fluky answers to Baltimore. Can Monken and MacDonald’s individually brilliant systems molded perfectly to the team carry all the way through to the Super Bowl? That is now the expectation in Baltimore.
Offense
After years of throwing to a bottom five receiving corps, Lamar Jackson finally has gotten some reinforcements. Through the first five years of his career, Jackson’s receivers have typically been a fairly misshapen lot, and the vision has not always been clear. In terms of top 2 pure WR targets, 2018 was John Brown and Michael Crabtree, 2019-20 was Marquise Brown and Willie Sneed, then Brown and Rashod Bateman in 2021, culminating in last year’s collection of Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duverney, and 6 games of Bateman. These are not teams that threaten the perimeter. The strength of the team, instead, was its ludicrously effective run game and playmaking across the middle of the field. As such, the Ravens have ended up with a team allergic to attacking all parts of the football field, and a QB who has never quite found his efficiency throwing the ball down the field. Dolphins fans are deeply familiar with how to help a QB who seems stunted in terms of making throws that keep a defense honest: you surround him with otherworldly route running, drill it to death, and then put a couple over the defense’s head to get them on their heels for the length of a season. The Ravens do not have the fortune of fielding Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at the same time, but their latest effort is a step in the right direction. The team made two moves to address the position, drafting Zay Flowers and signing Odell Beckham Jr., a year removed from his injury in the Super Bowl. Beckham’s reputation has suffered (and will suffer until the end of time) because he was too good as a rookie. This happens plenty in the NFL: a player seems destined for the Hall of Fame so young that Pro Bowls just don’t hit the same. In 2014, Beckham was a newfound sensation, catching 70% of his targets for 91 receptions, 1,305 yards, and 12 TDs compared to just 2 INTs while targeting him. Oh yeah, he also added 5.3 YAC per reception*, and finished with 2.75 yards every time he ran a route*. That. Is. Nuts. Injuries, odd off-the-field stories (legal, but odd), and a poor fit once traded to Cleveland led Beckham to a far different phase of his career now in his age 31 season. The last time we saw him in 2021, he was a good player but not a league-leader. Beckham finished 2021 sandwiched between Mike Evans and Darnell Mooney in PFF grading (37th). He finished with 1.57 yards per route run, making his peers a collection of good role players and strong #2 options like Adam Thielen, Danny Amendola, Jakobi Meyers, and Marquez Callaway. Let’s be clear: that is good! To top that off, his 13.3 yard average depth of target was a reminder that he can still be plenty effective in an outside role that mostly goes deep. Beckham still has remarkable body control, a hatred in his heart for cornerbacks, and enough speed to function as a valid target down the field. Indeed, this year Beckham has his highest yards per route run since 2018 (his last year with the Giants) and the deepest ADOT of his entire career. His best run was from Weeks 11-14, when he caught 11 passes for 247 yards, and he’s been quiet since. Zay Flowers, the other addition, is a monster, seemingly faster on tape than his 4.42 40 indicates. Part of that is that he played at Boston College, and competition is slower there than the SEC. The other part is that Flowers is one of the quickest dudes you have ever seen, with an incredible ability to make people miss. This is another strong decision by the Ravens for helping Jackson: sure, they’ve had speedy guys running past defenders before (Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins) but those players have typically had less productive seasons in terms of YAC. Flowers separates due to his agility and, if he finds a lane, teams find themselves chasing the little guy all day. At 5’9” and 182 pounds, Flowers does not have the physical makeup to just run down the field and snatch a ball over a safety, but he can make space between himself and a defender. For the most part, though, teams have not been chasing Flowers: he’s been used on shorter passes, forcing 17 missed tackles* (6th in the league) while only managing the 33rd best YAC per reception, just 10 yards per catch, and the 54th best yards per route run. What that tells me is that Flowers is not getting the ball in space enough, whether due to his own learning curve in the NFL or coaching. The Dolphins showed what a deep passing game can be with space, and even if a Beckham/Flowers combination is far from a Hill/Waddle combination in terms of defensive danger, receivers have gotten open all year. Flowers is set to miss his first game of the year this week, sidelined with an injured calf. Someone from the supporting cast, which now consists of Bateman, Isaiah Likely, and Nelson Agholor, has to step up. Bateman has been intriguing since he entered the league, after seasons spent with the Minnesota Golden Gophers absolutely bulldozing dudes. In 2019, the year before the pandemic shortened the Big 10’s season, Bateman went off for 60 catches and 1219 yards, an insane 20.3 yards per catch. In 2020, with only five games to showcase before he left for the Draft, Bateman had 3.45 yards every time he ran a route. A combination of production and physicality was enough to make the Ravens believe that they had found their perfect complement to Marquise Brown’s speed and agility. They made Bateman the 27th overall pick, and Bateman was instantly a fantasy football darling. Since then, it has been a mixed bag for the receiver. As a rookie, Bateman was saddled with a sinking team: after the meeting with the Miami Dolphins subjected the Ravens to blitzes that disrupted timing, Bateman too started to disappear. Last year, he notched two explosive TDs that showcased his ability to leg out deep balls and house short slants, and finally pushed some DBs around, but he suffered a Lisfranc injury in week 8 that has kept him sidelined through camp. This year he’s struggled with opportunities, catching just over half of his targets with an abysmal 1.02 yards per route run. Likely takes over for Mark Andrews, who was simply the best before breaking his leg midseason. He can’t totally take Andrews’s place: Andrews’s presence tips nothing about play calling. He is as good at run blocking as many offensive linemen in the league. Each year, he seems improved in his ability to provide meaningful snaps for Ravens runners. He is also an absolute volume machine: the guy ate up 149 targets in 2021, going 107 catches for 1,361 yards and 9 TDs. Isaiah Likely, a small school 4th round find, is then the next man up: he absolutely wrecked the 2022 preseason (but for skin complexion, you would have sworn the Ravens just played Andrews) and he turned two mid-year starts into a showcase of encouraging run blocking and 7 catches for 101 yards and 2 TDs. Not too shabby. This year, Likely has 13 yards per catch on 26 catches, proving the athleticism. Agholor is the newest addition, and he is essentially a Plus Bateman, also fielding a terrible 1.11 yards per route run but turning 4 of his 28 catches into TDs, giving Jackson a 123.1 rating when targeting him* (a career high for the vet). The Ravens backfield is difficult to decipher after yet another year of injuries. J.K. Dobbins tore his Achilles in Week 1 of his return. The former OSU 2nd rounder has elite vision but, in 2021, suffered a preseason knee injury that seemed to affect him well into 2021. His first game back, in week 3, Dobbins made national news because he seemed to be limping through his cuts. There was real concern that he had been rushed back, that the burst he needed was gone. By week 6, Dobbins made the choice to go back into surgery to work on removing scar tissue. According to The Baltimore Banner, that surgery revealed a tremendous amount of scar tissue, much of which was removed. Now he’s back to a long road to recovery. Keaton Mitchell, a standout at the small AAC school East Carolina University, emerged as a major weapon this year with an astounding 8.4 yards per carry and a superstar 92.5 PFF running grade* (92.4 overall). He was on the way to the next big out-of-nowhere rookie RB story until an ACL tear in Week 15. Without two players who make the Lamar Jackson checkdowns into weapon plays (made all the more terrifying when you think about how the coverage guy on the checkdown receiver must also be looking for Lamar to run), the offense has definitely lost a gear. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill now shoulder the load, both of whom have been respectable. They have a 4 and 4.2 yards per carry average respectively, and both can catch passes well, with Hill manning the 3rd down role and Edwards taking the power carries.
The offensive line is another point of relative strength, and they have had to adjust to a more traditional (and less OL-friendly) system. Ronnie Stanley, now three full seasons removed from his peak as a top OT in the league, has struggled to make that jump. Stanley was relatively poor as a run blocker this year, after still seeming affected by injuries sustained in 2021. Back in action in Week 5, Stanley put together plenty of solid tape as a shutdown pass protector, allowing 16 pressures* on 320 opportunities. That’s much more solid, if not totally up to his potential. He has been more of the same this year despite a “pitch count” established by the team to keep him fresh. Patrick Mekari has rotated in during certain moments, and has been better in the run game. Next to the LT tandem, longtime standout Ben Powers is gone after signing a huge deal in Denver. Powers, too, was a stellar pass protector, and his role will be filled by John Simpson after a battle with Ben Cleveland. Simpson was brought in from Las Vegas at the end of the year last year after being drafted in the 4th round by Vegas in 2020. He has never put on particularly good tape, starting through the 2021 playoff season for the Raiders, but generally seen as a major weak link. He allowed 40 pressures in 2021, contributed little in the run game, and committed 11 penalties. Josh Jacobs put up career rushing numbers with Simpson out of the lineup in 2022. He’s been the quintessential average guard this year, allowing a decent 22 pressures. Center Tyler Linderbaum is the most exciting player to watch this season for the Ravens outside of the receivers because this scheme seems tailored for him. I say that fully cognizant of the fact that Linderbaum was actually good last year! Linderbaum is an incredibly athletic prospect, the best such prospect in a decade. He’s smart enough to call the entire offense, quick enough (one of the Draft’s best 20-yard split runners in the 40), and showed last year that, despite being undersized, he had a mean streak. As a run blocker, he instantly entered the league as a top 5 producer. He also allowed the 3rd most pressures by a center last season, and he cleaned that up in 2023 with just 15 allowed so far (half of last year). Linderbaum has replaced Stanley as the most important building block on the offensive line. The right side of the line is also solid but aging, starting with Kevin Zeitler at guard. He was tied for the 7th fewest pressures with 16 last year, but has already allowed 19 this year. Zeitler is a fantastic zone blocker, but he did not get to do it much in the old scheme and has struggled to find consistent run blocking this year. You worry about a potential slowdown in terms of production. Morgan Moses bookends the offensive line, and he has been a steadying presence yet again. Moses is a top end zone and gap blocker, ready for whatever the Ravens choose to run, and allowed just 24 pressures in 2022 (22 this year, similar pace). He’s not a dominant physical presence by any stretch, but Moses is technically sound and reliable. He played at least 858 snaps every year since his rookie season. He’s a bargain on his current contract, locked in for the next two years. The Ravens are a well-assembled team, and vets like Moses who play good consistently are the spine of the operation, allowing the explosive players to freelance and find paydirt.
Defense
Last year, I wrote that the Ravens approach appeared to be that, if healthy, they were sure to find development and success. Unfortunately, a Lamar Jackson injury overshadowed the fact that this theory was mostly correct. Mike MacDonald’s addition coupled with healthier key players delivered a top 10 defense a year after the team was bottom 5. Michael Pierce is the anchor of the defensive line at nose tackle, but has been unable to stay healthy until this year. In 2020, Pierce opted out for COVID, followed by a year in Minnesota in which he only managed 251 snaps due to an elbow injury, and then last year’s biceps injury. Pierce is still an elite run defender, and he’s proving it this year with 20 run stops*, but he also set a career high in pressures* with 29 as MacDonald is allowing him to turn loose in pursuing QBs. Calais Campbell is gone as the always-steady 3-4 end, replaced by Justin Madubuike, who is having an insane year. He has 61 pressures, 3rd best in the league, with 12 sacks (he came into this year with 8.5 career sacks!) and 35 run stops. Travis Jones and Broderick Washington also contribute, with Jones the far better player. On the edge, the team had to go to Plan B after an injury to the talented David Ojabo. Ojabo’s story is incredible: after 26 career snaps prior to 2021, he became the face of a fierce Michigan defense for current Ravens DC Mike MacDonald, with an elite pass rush win rate of 19%. It takes many players a year and change to recover from the Achilles, but Ojabo made his way onto the field and even got his first career snap last season. His early returns were always expected to be muted due to how little football he had played, but his balance, explosiveness, and bend are expected to shine next year, as he suffered a partially torn ACL in Week 3 that knocked him out. It is needed, because Odafe Oweh is simply not meeting the Ravens needs on the outside. Oweh continued to be a missed tackle machine, and looked lost on the edge for most of last year. He saw a huge drop in snaps after Week 5 after the Ravens signed Jason Pierre-Paul, essentially seeing them cut in half, and that remains true this year, as Kyle Van Noy and Jadeveon Clowney have outsnapped Oweh. 64 pressures were missing from the edge this offseason with the departures of Pierre-Paul and the ageless Justin Houston (not to mention another 35 from Campbell), and the Ravens found them through the old vets. Clowney leads the team with 66 pressures and Van Noy is 4th with 43. The Ravens only blitzed 21.3% of the time a year after they were top 10 in the league with a blitz on 31.3% of plays, and the older vets may not be run stuffers, but they can allow for fewer blitzes. At LB, the midseason trade for Roquan Smith turned out to be excellent on all fronts when the Bears chose to jettison him to avoid paying a second contract. Smith helped clean up the run defense to the tune of PFF’s 5th graded run defense LB during his games as a Raven in 2022. Smith received the contract he deserved, and is the focal point of a defense that mugs the middle in pass coverage and tackles effectively (Smith has 151 credited tackles by ESPN). Next to him, Patrick Queen was able to blitz with more frequency and efficacy last year, delivering 25 pressures thanks in part to Smith’s arrival (he already has 25 this year). The former LSU standout turned in some fine outings in both phases of the game, with 56 stops constituting a failure for the offense as compared to 36 in 2021. He had the best missed tackle rate of his career and showed real growth in coverage despite receiving a whopping 87 targets in his coverage area. Unfortunately, he has regressed on the tackling, missing 20 according to PFF. He’s been better in coverage, allowing few big plays on still many targets. Malik Harrison added 249 snaps as a run defense specialist, but has spent his career as a real liability in pass coverage.
The reasons to believe for the Ravens defense as a Super Bowl unit hinge on the secondary, where veterans couple with the league’s most exciting defensive rookie of 2022 not named Sauce. The safeties are the bread and butter of the Ravens versatility. Marcus Williams will play the deep safety: he dislocated his wrist in 2022 after playing at least 999 (he needed one more snap, Saints!) over his five-year rookie contract and delivered yet another year of well-rounded play when he was on the field. Williams picked off 4 passes while allowing no TDs last year. He missed just 3 tackles, and looks for all the world like he can still make big plays based on 2022. His 2023 has been far more normal, mostly due to injury, though his stats are nothing to scoff at. Williams works in with Geno Stone, who has NOT been good in run defense but has an insane 6 INTs. Those two pair with Kyle Hamilton, who delivered everything and then some after being called a “top 5 talent in the draft” all 2022 draft season. Hamilton was picked 14th in the end because safety is a less premium position. PFF didn’t have a single category where he ranked less than 6th. His numbers were not necessarily stellar (passer rating allowed of 118.8, 63 tackles) but he was utilized all over the field, ending his year as the slot corner. Learning box safety, free safety, and slot corner is extremely difficult in the NFL as opposed to the NCAA, where the Star role allows for more freelancing. Hamilton was rarely out of position after the first two weeks, and has seen his role expand. Hamilton is truly the do-it-all players, and has allowed an insane 47.2 passer rating in his coverage. On tape, he explodes through people, runs step for step with the fastest in the league, and sets the physical tone. He will be out this week after a Christmas knee injury, so the Ravens may go a bit more traditional in their looks. At corner, I’ll spoil it: no one looks good. Marlon Humphrey transitioned back to a full-time outside corner after spending much of his time in the slot in the prior three years. 2021 was his worst year as a pro, allowing 15 yards per reception and generally playing poorly physically. Hamilton provided Humphrey the chance to finally move back outside, and he delivered his best passer rating allowed as a full-time starter with only 150 yards after catch allowed on 50 catches (an excellent number that demonstrates how often he was in good position). His 3 INTs to 0 TDs allowed is another great indicator of how strong Humphrey played. Humphrey was also PFF’s favorite CB in man coverage, even if Sauce Gardner had better numbers. This year, he has continued to allow little in his area, but he’s had some high-profile busts and receivers have beaten him over the top. Across from him, Brandon Stephens typically starts and teams have worked to pick on him, throwing at him 106 times so far. Stephens has done well, allowing a passer rating of 80, but he’s not a clear-cut winner yet and may miss the game after a mid-week ankle injury was added to the report. Arthur Maulet and Rock Ya-Sin, two mediocre players, may have to step in to help. Despite investments in the first three rounds over the years, none of the Ravens depth corners give reason to believe they can help solidify the position. CB2 will be a real need with DE in 2024: until then, the Ravens hope they have enough.
Special Teams
The Dolphins last unseen regular season opponent possesses the greatest kicker of all time. Justin Tucker has a career 89.8 FG make percentage, and a 98.7 extra point percentage. Tucker was an early Youtube sensation, filming an uncut workout where he drilled everything and said to teams simply “Pick me.” He was not one of the four kickers selected, but he has gone on to shatter the longest kick record (a crossbar-hitting gamewinner against the Lions) and became the fastest kicker to both hit 1000 points (in 2019) and hit 300 FGs (in 2021). Last year was another technical bit of excellence, hitting all but one under 50 and going 9/14 from beyond. He has missed 2 extra points in a season just once, in 2019. He is so consistent and strong, but he is, in fact, mortal. Tucker is 31/36 this season, including 1 of 5 from 50+. The team has changed their strategy for gaining yards in FG range to be more aggressive, an honestly welcome change. Tucker did this with a new holder last year, after the Ravens drafted Jordan Stout in the 4th round. Stout had a tough year, ranking outside the top 20 in both net yards and yards per attempt. He did tie for 13th in punts inside the 20, but he’ll need to send the ball further this year to ensure future roster spots. He’s up in average punt and punts in 20 this year. The speedy Devin Duvernay returns to the Ravens, freed from his role as a top WR and allowed to do what he does best: find hidden special teams yardage. The Ravens returner averaged a whopping 11.9 yards per punt return, 6th in the league amongst players who returned more than 10. His 25.5 yard kick return average is also near the top 10, and he added a 103-yard score last year, 2nd longest of the season. Due to injury, Duvernay lost his spot to the excellent Tylan Wallace, who took a walkoff punt back against the Rams. Both guys are players. Kyle Hamilton was the best special teamer on the team last year, but his call-up to more defensive snaps will likely mean a new one must be found during camp, as the Ravens did not have a true Ace last year after Chris Board’s departure. LB Del’Shawn Phillips has done most of the work in special teams this year.
Game Prediction
After a team beats the absolute stuffing out of a Super Bowl favorite, how do you pick against them? The Ravens toyed with Brock Purdy all Christmas evening all the way up to knocking him out with a stinger. The defense disguised coverages and drove on the 49ers skill players and offensive line, disrupting timing and forcing mistakes all over the field. At home in their stadium on Christmas Day fully healthy, the best team in the NFL had no counter-punch for a physically and mentally tough Ravens gameplan. It should scare the league, and has certainly scared me! The Ravens have had so much that was planned this year go wildly off course; I described above the RB carousel and two top edge rushers on the team picked off of the vet scrap heap. And yet the Ravens just keep finding ways to win and win soundly: they’re 4-3 in one score games, which is fine and normal, but then you remember that means they’re 8-0 in games decided by more than 8 points. You don’t *beat* the Baltimore Ravens in 2023, you hang on for dear life and hope variance bounces your way.
So can the Dolphins hang on? The short answer is yes because any team with an MVP-level QB, coaches across the staff who can paper up holes in the operation, and the best defensive front 4 in football by pressure percentage can always hang on, and dominate at that. The Ravens offensive line is fresh off of proving their stripes against Nick Bosa and the 49ers, but they did allow 23 pressures on Jackson, who was otherworldly at avoiding the hits. Chubb and company will absolutely need to convert a few of those pressures to meaningful stops, as many of the “pressures” on Jackson are just cool Difficulty Multipliers for a pedestrian 20 yard pass. In last year’s incredible comeback against Baltimore, Miami roasted a confused Kyle Hamilton and truly outmatched set of corners for 28 points in the final quarter. Many of those players are still there and, even without Waddle, the Dolphins gameplan can certainly attack them on the outside every play, whether by run or by air. Finally, McDaniel’s finesse and motion game has protected Tua better than any Dolphins team we’ve seen before, and there is certainly reason to believe the Dolphins line can keep him safe. The Ravens and Dolphins are both stacking key injuries now (Kyle Hamilton for the Ravens to Waddle and Mostert for Miami), which always leads to a bit of chaos.
No, even given those reasons I believe it will be close, I cannot take Miami to win. I believe too much in the new schemes that Baltimore has, and I think we’ll see a calm Lamar and little room for YAC or broken tackles out of the Ravens. If we see Tua take a few sacks, the odds look even longer. But Miami has a real opportunity here after the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs losses to say they can go into the hottest team in town’s stadium and emerge with the narrative in their favor. They’ll get more than just narrative: they’ll seize control of the chance to host every one of their playoff games to the Super Bowl. Oh and did I mention they can seal the division? A win here would be the most impactful yet of Mike McDaniel’s young career. Sitting here with the novel coronavirus, I can dream, right? To prove I can dream, I will nap on either side of the game.
Score Prediction: Ravens 31-27
Season Record (Taylor’s Picks): 11-4
* = See Glossary
