| Projected Record | 3-14, (ACTUAL: 1-5) |
| Weighted DVOA Offense* | 31st |
| Weighted DVOA Defense | 11th |
| Early Down Yards | 1st Down – 4.17 (31st), 2nd Down – 4.09 (29th) |
| Explosive Play Rate (As of Week 4) | Offense – 30th (Run 27th, Pass 29th), Defense – 6th (Run 6th, Pass 15th) |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 53.33% (22nd) |
| Turnover Differential | -4 (tied-27th) |
| Key Additions | Joe Flacco QB, Bailey Zappe QB, Deandre Carter WR, Malachi Corley WR, Jackson Barton OT, Cam Robinson OT, Cornelius Lucas OT, Teven Jenkins IOL, Maliek Collins IDL, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka EDGE, Julian Okwara EDGE, Jerome Baker LB, Tyson Campbell CB, Rayshawn Jenkins S, Damontae Kazee S, Andre Szmyt K |
| Key Departures | Jameis Winston QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson QB, Bailey Zappe QB, Nick Chubb RB, Nyheim Hines RB, D’Onta Forman RB, Elijah Moore WR, James Proche WR, Jordan Akins TE, Geoff Swaim TE, Germain Ifedi OT, Geron Christian OT, James Hudson OT, Jedrick Wills OT, Nick Harris IOL, Dalvin Tomlinson IDL, Mo Hurst IDL, James Houston EDGE, Khaleke Hudson LB, Greg Newsome II CB, Michael Ford CB, Juan Thornhill S, Rodney McLeod S, Dustin Hopkins K |
| Rookies to Watch | Dillon Gabriel QB, Shadeur Sanders QB, Quinshon Judkins RB, Harold Fannin Jr. TE, Mason Graham IDL, Carson Schwesinger LB |
Players on IR: Deshaun Watson QB, Cade McDonald WR, DeAndre Carter WR, Cedric Tillman WR, Dawand Jones OT, Justin Osborne IOL, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB, Nathaniel Watson LB, Winston Reid LB, Martin Emerson Jr. CB, Anthony Kendall CB
Quarterback
The story of the Browns’ 40+ starting QBs since they rejoined the NFL in 1999 is well-documented. Fans with jerseys featuring all the names go viral every year and, from Tim Couch to the current day, the common thread is generally sub-par QBing. It doesn’t matter if the player is a true bust (Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden), a journeyman icon doomed to injury (RGIII, Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Tyrod Taylor), or a star that either implodes or just plays below his talent (Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield), the Browns QB situation is a spiritual wasteland. The Browns committed to Joe Flacco this year. Flacco was traded by Week 5 with a statline of 2 TDs and 6 INTs. Free of Cleveland, he immediately managed 2 TDs and no INTs. It’s a hellish job. The entire circumstance at QB sits in the immense shadow of Deshaun Watson’s proclivity for (alleged) sexual assault, torching his team with both his conduct and his immense contract, signed at a time in which his skills were not in question. The 5 year, $230 million dollar fully guaranteed contract has sparked outrage in all sectors of society. Watson’s elevation to generational wealth despite accusations of heinous crimes sent conscientious fans into a tailspin while a fully guaranteed contract led owners to go into full oligarchy, law-breaking mode themselves to ensure no team EVER structured a deal like that again. Watson’s deal is structured like he would be on the team forever: he currently costs the team $35 million against the cap and, next year, that number goes to a record $80 million, over a quarter of the anticipated cap space. To cut him then would lead to a $131 million dead cap hit. The cap this year is $279 million. You would truly be torching HALF YOUR CAP to not employ Deshaun Watson. Watson still has $92 million remaining, with $46 coming this year and next, before the dead cap is pushed to future years. What does that mean for the QB position? They gotta be cheap. Enter two draft picks, one for the coaches and one for the owners: Dillon Gabriel and Shadeur Sanders. Both count for $2 million combined against the cap, and will for the duration of Watson’s contract.
If this were a preview of what the Browns may be in years to come, there would be use in describing Watson’s play, but rest assured that it is awful and he is awful. No page space wasted. Instead, let’s talk Gabriel, the low-cost alternative. Gabriel is a small, left handed thrower from Hawaii. He played Tua in high school, and actually was the one to break Tua’s career state high school record. He went to UCF for 3 years, starting immediately as a true freshman and winning a bowl game. From there, with NIL and COVID eligibility, Gabriel transferred to Oklahoma and put up nice numbers en route to All-Big 12. One more transfer led to a year at Oregon, where he put a bow on a LONG college career by tying the career passing TDs mark and setting a record for both total TDs and career QB starts (beating Bo Nix, another Oregon QB and frequent transfer guy). Gabriel entered the league as a 24-year-old, and the Nix comparison is extremely important here: the Browns saw a QB who was old and from a weird offense come into the league and immediately keep his team relevant. Nix had an unquestionably impressive year given expectations, with heady play and athleticism needed to keep the offense on schedule with an incredible Broncos defense. It was enough to elevate Gabriel 2 rounds above the consensus grade (around the 5th round, due in part to his size and age). Now Gabriel has gotten the call-up, and his coaches hope it can save their jobs. So far, so meh. Gabriel has completed about the same amount passes as Flacco (57.3% to Flacco’s 58.1%) but his yards per attempt hasn’t risen the offense at all (4.8 to 5.1). The literal only difference is that he isn’t throwing picks (none yet) with 3 TDs. His 6 sacks taken against Pittsburgh is the only place where Flacco might have provided a bit of help in getting to the right read quicker, but Gabriel is actually throwing the ball quicker. In the Browns, Miami is playing a team with some of the worst offensive production in the league, and that comes in large part from how undeniably poor this pass game is. Of 39 qualifying QBs, Flacco and Gabriel are both LAST in yards per attempt, and by a sizable margin. The team has 5 passes that have gone for 25 yards or more, tied with the Jets and 2 more than the Saints. With 50-60 mph winds projected for this rainy game, a rookie QB with a less-than-ideal arm in a bad offense may throw the ball 15 times. And that’s good news for the Browns. One QB note though: a great Flacco game in which he beat the Steelers, aired the ball out downfield, and generally looked like a vintage journeyman (he has 5 TDs to no INTs and 6.1 YPA since the trade) turns the spotlight further away from Gabriel and on to piss poor coaching and scheming.
Coaching
Kevin Stefanski was once a happy man. The son of a successful NBA executive, Stefanski started his coaching career at the true intern ranks. He was an operations intern, a true coffee-fetcher, for the Eagles and coach Brad Childress brought him to Minnesota as his literal assistant. Assistant To The Head Coach, Schrute-style. After three years in that role, Stefanski talked his way into serving as a closer assistant to the QBs, where he could actually provide some offensive help. He was there for another 4 years, never jumping on a different job, but instead latching on as TE coach, then RB coach, and finally QB coach in 2017 and 2018. He coached Case Keenum to his best NFL season, and Stefanski’s modified Norv Turner offense netted him the OC role to close his career in Minnesota. He had survived 3 coaching changes by the end, and was finally on his way to his dream as an NFL head coach. In 2020, Stefanski actually turned the Browns around: he made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 for the team, and the team knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (Stefanski had COVID and missed the game, but obviously extensively planned it) before losing to Mahomes 22-17 in the Divisional Round. He won Coach of the Year! And then everything went to shit: the team’s trade for Odell Beckham before Stefanski’s tenure ended in disaster when Beckham passive aggressively feuded with Mayfield, Mayfield’s own numbers slipped as the team tripled down on the run, and a year of lost momentum led ownership to flirt with, and eventually execute, the insane trade and contract of Watson detailed above. Mayfield demanded out, and Stefanski began a 4 year stretch that has him aging like Obama. Who made the call ultimately? Ownership signed off on it, Andrew Berry (the GM) talked glowingly of the supposedly in-depth process, but Stefanski and all involved took the photo op picture in the end. Stefanski is, at best, a guy who didn’t step up and at worst complicit in the single worst football decision in NFL history.
This cloud of unrest is important to note because, with the firing of Brian Callahan, Mike McDaniel and Kevin Stefanski are potentially the most beleaguered coaches in the NFL coming into Week 7. Stefanski’s scheme is no longer the power run and play action magic that propelled Mayfield through a difficult point in his career, instead melting into a hodge-podge of concepts. Gabriel has returned under center at a fairly frequent rate to my eyes, and the team is transitioning back to a ton of 2 TE looks (they lead the NFL in the rate of such usage with almost half of their snaps). If Stefanski is finally emerging from the shotgun quick-pass-turned-into-Watson-scramble nightmare, it’s with the least talent he’s ever coached and will probably be too late to save his job. He sometimes calls the plays, but has traditionally brought in coaches to help be thought partners on offense. In 2024, he hired Ken Dorsey, then gave him play call duties after the Watson injury only to fire him at the end of the year as though it were his fault that the 3-14 Browns sucked ass. This year, the offensive help comes via Tommy Rees, who QBed Notre Dame in the early 2010s. He was the OC for Notre Dame, and then Alabama, during some nice seasons for both. The hope is that Rees can design a college-friendly game for Gabriel that complements the run game from Stefanski: this has yet to materialize. Defensively, the Browns have somehow managed to keep Jim Schwartz in the building. One of the greatest gurus of defensive line play in NFL history, Schwartz is a Belichick disciple from the insanely influential Browns staff. After moving with the team to Baltimore, Schwartz eventually got elevated to the DC role in Tennessee, where he spent 7 years coaching underrated and excellent players like Jevon Kearse, Kyle Vanden Boch, Kevin Carter, Randy Starks, Keith Bullock, and Albert Haynesworth. Outside of Haynesworth, you’re talking about guys who just smash faces. Schwartz coaches dudes who smash faces. Schwartz flamed out in Detroit, due in large part to organizational turmoil and QB injuries, and caused a minor controversy when, the year after his firing, he piloted the Bills to an incredible defensive finish and got carried off the field after beating the Lions. After coach Doug Marrone quit due to ownership change to collect his full 2015 salary, Schwartz was left again without a job and declined a midseason chance to join the Dolphins! Alas! He joined the Eagles in 2016, where he built a worst-to-first unit behind some of the deepest DLs in NFL history. It culminated in a 2018 Super Bowl. Health issues sidelines him for the early 2020s, but Schwartz returned with a bang for an incredible 2023 Browns defense that helped them make the playoffs amidst Watson chaos. Under Schwartz, Myles Garrett is quickly racing to become the all-time sack leader, the entire DL absolutely annihilates plays behind the line of scrimmage, and the Browns remain disgustingly stingy. Schwartz loves the wide-9 technique, allowing powerful edges to just fly downhill and give tackles fits. He doesn’t worry about what the outside alignments give up in the middle, because he coaches his DTs and LBs to ALSO come up at a million miles an hour. The goal is to overwhelm every single offensive player at all times. For an easily overwhelmed Dolphins offense, this is…a concern. Schwartz makes life hard for offenses by never sitting back in two-gap run fits: his guys blow up individual gaps like there are 13 men on the field. This may make the Browns vulnerable to longer developing passes, but do you want to take time for a play to develop with Myles Garrett on the field? I’ve personally only seen the Browns struggle with confusing misdirection, but this defense has been good all year.
Offense
Flacco and Gabriel haven’t been the only problem with the Browns offense. This is not a talented group, with an OL that is a ghost of the glory days in 2020-2022 and a receiver corps that has officially regressed into the NFL cellar. First, the disintegrating OL, where three mainstays are playing extremely bad ball. Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio, once perennial Pro Bowl guys, seem to be breaking down with age. Bitonio is the better of the two. He peaked in the early 2020s, playing every snap for 8 seasons in a row and driving the run game to new heights. It was between him and the Colts Quenton Nelson for best guard in the league. In 2023, with Deshaun Watson at the helm full-time, Bitonio started to allow far more pressure. His 35 pressures was 15 pressures higher than any of those peak seasons, and by far a career worst. In 2024, he allowed 32 while setting a career high in penalties. The devolution of his pass game also showed up in the run game, where the speed and power was demonstrably lessened. He turned 34 this week, and the wear and tear of interior line play does begin to really make its mark in the mid-30s. This year is a slight rebound: he’s allowed just 1 QB hit to start the year, but struggles up front in both phases of the game persist. In 2020, Teller was basically as good as Bitonio at his peak: both ferocious interior players, Teller paved the way for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb like a Hall of Famer. He may be younger than Bitonio, but he has just 2 seasons with more than 1000 snaps, often persevering through injury. His 15 pressures allowed this year is at the high end for guards, and an abysmal game against the Brian Flores blitzes exposes a lack of athleticism. Ethan Pocic plays center for the team, and has gone from successful Stefanski redemption project to a bottom-tier center, on pace for a career high in pressures. Inside stunts are killing Teller and Pocic, especially, as both were decidedly overwhelmed against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. It’s a deeply disappointing regression, timed entirely when the offense shifted to meet Watson’s demands. The tackle issue is simply injuries: the Browns have struggled to solidify the LT position since parting ways with Jedrick Wills Jr. and 5 different players have taken a snap there this year. Dawand Jones started the year there, surrendering 7 pressures to the talented Bengals ends before injury opened the door for KT Leveston, who was somehow worse. After 5 pressures against both the Steelers and Vikings, the Browns had seen enough and made a trade for Cam Robinson. Robinson is a perpetual underachiever, and signed an inexplicable extension in Jacksonville before bouncing around the league as a journeyman. Thrust into the LT role last week, he ALSO allowed 5 pressures with 3 penalties and is now questionable. Leveston will theoretically be the RT this week unless the last ghost of the line returns: Jack Conklin, who was (and this is shocking) really good in 2020-2022 got hurt in 2023, was really bad with Deshaun Watson, and remains struggling. Conklin is in concussion protocol. None of the revolving door of tackles offers much in the run game (Leveston might be the best of them, but is such a pass pro liability he’s borderline unplayable) and the team communication in pass protection is poor to say the least.
The rest of the skill group is similarly uninspiring with two bright spots. The only Brown with more than 250 yards through 6 games (yeesh) is Harold Fannin Jr. A rookie from Bowling Green who I loved for Miami, Fannin is basically untackleable, spinning for first downs routinely. In the Green Bay win, PFF charted him as slipping FIVE tackles, which rules, and QBs have a 100.1 rating when targeting him. Fannin mostly plays in the slot catching short stuff, but he has the catch radius to be a killer seam threat with confident QB play. He’s one to watch. 12 of his 28 catches went for first downs. His TE partner David Njoku is out this week. He’s not the other bright spot (though certainly a not-disastrous player): that honor belongs to Quinshon Judkins, who is yet another dude-arrested-for-violence-against-women. Judkins, a former Georgia RB who transferred to OSU for the national championship season, signed basically as the season started due to his charges and difficulties with contract guarantees. He took the field against Baltimore and promptly gained 61 yards on 10 carries. The next three weeks, Judkins tallied 296 yards and 2 TDs. His 3.9 yards after contact per attempt is already 5th best in the league: if you’re going to be a crappy OL, you better have a dude like this. His numbers would be even better if penalties hadn’t wiped away multiple explosives over the last few weeks. Judkins looks for all the world like Nick Chubb in his uniform: decisive and powerful runner with surprising dexterity in his runs. He’ll never be a dude who dazzles with elusiveness, but he will plow you over and all of a sudden make you miss. Provided he can not be a piece of shit, Judkins will continue to be an efficient monster. None of the other receivers warrant note: Cedric Tillman is the only one with multiple TDs through the air and he’s on IR. Isaiah Bond is a guy the Browns got because crimes torched his draft status (sexual assault no-billed in Texas) and he has yet to show much on 11 catches. Jerry Jeudy was the big trade from a few years ago, but he’s 2/9 on contested balls and QBs have a 33 rating when targeting him. This confirms the eye test: he runs lazy routes, drops the ball (SEVEN OF THEM, MORE DROPS THAN GAMES), and is useless in the short game. Perhaps the team can get him going, he is talented enough. Jamari Thrash mans the slot after injuries to Tillman and other reserves, and he has done nothing of note through two years. The Browns offense is a picture of malaise: the OL are trying their best and failing to hit their spots, the receivers lack concentration, none of it looks detailed, and it’s up to a few young guys who haven’t been broken by the league to get production going.
Defense
The fun part! The Browns defense murders people, just straight up destruction at the point of attack and there’s a bunch of awesome dudes doing the destruction. It starts with Myles Garrett, who just became the youngest player in history to hit 100 sacks. He now has 106.5, with 4 this year. In the past four years, Garrett has had at least 14 sacks. His rookie year in 2017 is the only year he didn’t have 10, and he still had 7 on just 518 snaps. He’s tied for 12th in pressures this year, but it’s early: he was 4th last year, 7th in 2023, and 11th in 2022 among all defenders. That kind of longevity and consistency is insane. Does he play the run? He sure as shit does, setting career highs in run stops the instant Jim Schwartz came to town and maintaining them as well. Myles Garrett will be in the Hall of Fame, and I might not know of a player more deserving. We’re witnessing greatness. And the rest of the DL rocks too. Maliek Collins has gone from journeyman to something extremely special in terms of IDL pressure: he has 18 in 6 games, on pace for an easy career high. Schwartz finally has the pure penetrating pass rusher in the right scheme for him, and he impacts games more every week. Big Shelby Harris, a veteran standout in Denver, is providing his run stuffing chops. Both Isaiah McGuire and Alex Wright are doing fine work as edge partners for Garrett, putting 18 more pressures on the board (McGuire, a 2023 4th-rounder, is particularly impressive, and was last year in film study). Even randos like Adin Huntington and goddamn former bust Joe Tryon-Shoyinka keep showing up to smash people. And I didn’t even mention Mason Graham, who has struggled in run defense a bit, but is a high-motor, 5th overall pick rookie this year after a career of pure excellence at Michigan, though he is questionable with a sudden DNP on Friday. One interesting note: Mike Hall may be back at IDL for the first time this year after a knee injury in 2024. Hall was a fan favorite and stout run defender as a rookie out of OSU. He immediately makes the line even deeper. Hey, how about good LB play? Devin Bush went from top 10 bust in Pittsburgh to a lovely tackler you can’t take off the field. Carson Schweshinger, who I DESPERATELY wanted in Miami, is a sideline-to-sideline tackling machine that held up very well in coverage until Rodgers got him a bit last week. Jerome Baker has made some impact plays! Young guys, a generational talent, and vets playing the best football of their career under Schwartz have every team scared to go get mashed in Cleveland, even if you plan to walk out with a win. This is the 11th best team in weighted DVOA, all the more impressive when you consider that the offense is the 2nd worst, and it starts up front.
The secondary may be less stellar, but they’re no slouches. Grant Delpit has looked disruptive in coverage after getting torched too often last year, and has cut down his missed tackles immensely. His game against the Ravens with 3 run stops and a pass break up was helpful on a day when the corners ended up in a lot of trouble. London was a poor showing for him, allowing a 32 yard TD, but Delpit has a lot in the tank and another year on his contract. His partner, Ronnie Hickman Jr., is a bit less dependable downfield, but is doing his job in his first year as a full-time starter. He too is missing less tackles than earlier in his career, and has been a nice developmental project as an undrafted free agent. If the defense struggles anywhere, it’s at corner, where established starters have been less dominant than past years. Denzel Ward, once a dependable 4th overall pick, has missed 6 tackles and generally lacks physicality. Isolating him in the misdirection plays has been a boon to other teams. He’s coming off a career-high 17 pass breakups and his DL is making life easy for him: he’s on pace to allow a career low in yards per reception with just 9.5, as teams are terrified to take the time to test the Browns deep. The flipside is that Ward has already allowed 16 catches and 2 TDs through 6 games. Stretched over 17 games, that would be a career-high 45 catches allowed and a tie for his career high in TDs allowed (he’s allowed just 3 in each of the last 4 years over a whole season). Still, Ward is allowing a passer rating of just 84.2, pretty near his average of 77.9, so it’s still passable work for the 28-year-old speedster. Greg Newsome was the other CB and another former Browns 1st round pick, but he was traded to Jacksonville in a salary maneuver. Newsome also won’t be mistaken for a LB, and was having a relatively difficult season with an 91.8 QB rating allowed before the trade. In for just 9 snaps last week, he promptly allowed a 61 yard TD to the great Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a lead the Seahawks never surrendered. Thanks to desperation, the Browns did play Campbell for the full complement of snaps against Pittsburgh, and he mostly did his duty (3 completions on 7 targets and a pass breakup), but allowed a back shoulder ball to DK, missed on an undercut, and bit bad on a Metcalf stop and go. The book on Campbell was that he had one incredible 2022 year where he was picked on but delivered with great technique and 3 INTs, but he has otherwise been a TD-allowing machine due to his penchant for biting. The last regime in Jacksonville inexplicably paid him big money, so the Browns are taking the contract on with knowledge that he’ll cost just 5 million in cap the next two years before they can cut him without repercussions. This was an NBA-type trade. Newcomer Myles Harden is the CB most frequently in the slot, and he has allowed a ton of work underneath. He’s there because of the tackling he showed in the first 3 weeks of the season (no missed tackles on 12 targets), but Detroit and Minnesota picked on him to the tune of 11 targets with 9 catches, one of which was a TD. The CB unit is the only one on this defense I would call undermanned, but again, it’s tempest conditions in Cleveland this weekend. Perfect for a 14-10 slog.
Special Teams
Andre Szmyt seems to have ironed out some kicking woes since costing his team 4 points and field position in Week 1. He is 9/11 on all FGs and hasn’t missed and extra point since Week 1. It’s pronounced Schmidt. Don’t ask me, I don’t know what’s happening there. The Browns actually cut him in June, but brought him back for another go at the K position, and this time he beat Dustin Hopkins out. His career highlight thus far is securing the upset win over Green Bay with a booming 55-yard kick. He was just the third freshman in history to win college football’s best kicker award, so there’s juice there. His kickoffs haven’t been noticeably bad. The old cliche of bad team, good punter holds true here: Corey Bojorquez (Bo-hor-kez, according to Wikipedia, these names man) was 3rd in the league in punts inside the 20 in 2024 and is tied for 2nd this year. He ranks near average in hangtime and near the bottom of the league in actual punt distance, but you won’t find a better directional punter. His punts have, however, been returned 15 times for 175 yards, which is not ideal. The Browns gave up 23 yard returns in both of the first two games that I blamed more on coverage than the punter. The weakness of the directional game showed up against Detroit, when a short punt to the sidelines was caught on the run by Khalif Raymond and taken for a TD. Malik Washington should have an opportunity for a meaningful run back, especially with swirling winds. Rayshawn Jenkins is the most active special teams player for the Browns, and had been a solid ace. The return game is in no man’s land a bit after DeAndre Carter got hurt: though he offered little excitement as a returner, his backup WR replacements haven’t done much else of interest. No one has a kick returned more than 30 yards, nor a punt return longer than 16.
Game Prediction
Swirling winds and angry locker rooms always favor the defense to me, so I do think the Browns win this game and drop Miami to a new low entirely. Myles Garrett will probably match up against Patrick Paul, as he has elected to take on top tackles in hopes of the other talented defensive players steamrolling the rest of the line. Against Detroit, we saw how impactful it could be: 8 pressures against one of the league’s bright young tackles is difficult for an offense to endure. If you’re losing your most comfortable matchup, the gaskets start to pop off. Tua’s new tendency to find his way out of the pocket with happy feet, due in large part to how swiftly his guards are walked back, will be his downfall against a team where Garrett can be blocked for a moment, but never for a full play. It is notable that both the Steelers and Vikings held Garrett to just 3 total pressures over the last two weeks, but I doubt it means he’s slowing down. For Miami, a heavy dose of the ground game, screens, and sweeps designed to force their DBs into tackling situations is the way to go. Last year is no help to us: both teams were a laundry list of injuries, and the game featured starting QBs Tyler Huntley and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, which should not happen outside of a strike or COVID season. How many times will the lefty starters drop back this week? With Miami’s run defense in terrible shape, the Browns cannot let Gabriel lead the way. Last week, they let him sling it 52 times against Pittsburgh and, in London, 33 times. That number needs to be 20. It simply must be. Tua, meanwhile, needs to get back to the recipe against the Jets, when he went 17/25 with 2 TDs and no INTs. If either team falls behind and has to pass, it could get very ugly.
Some matchups I’ll be watching in a game that could go either way, and likely to a team that does not deserve it:
- Patrick Paul vs. Myles Garrett: Paul’s first season as a starter may not be grading well on PFF’s metrics, but even they must admit that 7 pressures and 1 penalty is pretty damn good for the second-year behemoth. Indeed, Paul has yet to allow a pressure in the quick game, and had he had more than a ludicrously low 337 snaps of offense in the first 6 weeks, I think he’d be getting a bit more love. Garrett is the moment to make that happen: if Paul can contain the damage, fans will be monitoring him more closely.
- Miami receivers vs. CBs: The speedy corners are starting to break down. Can Miami tire them out and break their discipline, finding the edges of the field and using their crossing patterns to get some coverage busts? We saw Zay Flowers do it with ease in Week 2, but the weather will make this less important.
- The goddamn Miami interior line vs. the goddamn broken Browns OL: Both fans hate their respective units right now, and for good reason. Will the Browns find a new tone of physicality or can the Dolphins actually, with discipline, force the Browns into 3rd and long? If I’m Weaver, I am absolutely selling out with run blitzes and 1-gap attacks similar to the Browns to ensure that my guys are dictating when and how the ball will be run. The young DTs will dictate whether this is a win or a loss. In the losing version, the defense gives up near 200 rush yards yet again. This is far from impossible.
- Turnover Tua vs. himself: When Tua expressed shock that he turns the ball over in bunches or not at all, he showed a remarkable lack of self-scouting. Any Dolphins fan knows that a Tua pick means more to come. The Chargers got him 3 times. Tua has as many games with 2+ INTs as no INTs this year. Ball security will guarantee this team a 17 point outing, even with the weather and defensive intensity simply because the Browns will break in their discipline somewhere. If Tua does his part, he can shift the script to the defense, which is absolutely desperate to rehabilitate their reputation.
Do I think the Dolphins defense will step up and that the Browns defense will allow Tua room to operate? No I do not. Hence:
Score Prediction: Browns 24-17
Season Record (Taylor’s Picks): 4-2
Next: @ Atlanta Falcons
