It’s hard to win in the NFL, and harder still to predict a season long before any major injuries, regression, or data points even exist. Some questions, like whether Justin Herbert or Joe Lombardi was to blame for the Chargers conservatism for instance, will be evident by Week 4 and might tell the tale of a full season. In the absence of data, and fully cognizant of my Dolphins bias, here’s my guess for this season.
AFC East
| Team | Record | Division |
| Miami Dolphins | 12-5 | 4-2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11-6 | 4-2 |
| New York Jets | 10-7 | 2-4 |
| New England Patriots | 8-9 | 2-4 |
AFC North
| Team | Record | Division |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 13-4 | 4-2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10-7 | 3-3 |
| Cleveland Browns | 10-7 | 2-4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-8 | 3-3 |
AFC South
| Team | Record | Division |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11-6 | 5-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7-10 | 3-3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-13 | 2-4 |
| Houston Texans | 4-13 | 2-4 |
AFC West
| Team | Record | Division |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14-3 | 6-0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10-7 | 2-4 |
| Denver Broncos | 9-8 | 3-3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5-12 | 1-5 |
NFC East
| Team | Record | Division |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 14-3 | 3-3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10-7 | 5-1 |
| New York Giants | 9-8 | 3-3 |
| Washington Commanders | 7-10 | 1-5 |
NFC North
| Team | Record | Division |
| Detroit Lions | 10-7 | 3-3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8-9 | 3-3 |
| Chicago Bears | 7-10 | 3-3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-11 | 3-3 |
NFC South
| Team | Record | Division |
| New Orleans Saints | 11-6 | 4-2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9-8 | 4-2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4-13 | 2-4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-14 | 2-4 |
NFC West
| Team | Record | Division |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 4-2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9-8 | 4-2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-12 | 3-3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-15 | 1-5 |
Playoffs!
Over/Unders
Based on my win predictions, the following teams would be over or under their projected wins. The number next to each team is how many wins that FanDuel projects for the team at the end of the regular season. I have more overs than unders, which means that I predict the bad teams will likely be much worse than their record (someone has to get that #1 pick!) Particular notes: The Chiefs and Eagles must be accounted for, as the FanDuel maximum win expectation is set at 11.5 this year and both teams are built to be competitive against any team in the league, which greatly affects the under predictions. The Phins are obviously much higher than their win total in my prediction, while the Buccaneers are my team projected to fall the furthest from their win total, as I predict injuries, QB, and coaching to hit this team hard.
| Over | Under |
| Falcons (8.5) Bills (10.5) Bengals (11.5) Browns (9.5) Cowboys (9.5) Broncos (8.5) Lions (9.5) Jaguars (9.5) Chiefs (11.5) Chargers (9.5) Dolphins (9.5) Patriots (7.5) Giants (7.5) Jets (9.5) Eagles (11.5) Steelers (8.5) 49ers (10.5) Seahawks (8.5) Commanders (6.5) | Cardinals (4.5) Ravens (10.5) Panthers (7.5) Bears (7.5) Packers (7.5) Texans (6.5) Colts (6.5) Raiders (6.5) Rams (6.5) Vikings (8.5) Saints (9.5) Buccaneers (6.5) Titans (7.5) |
MVP
Patrick Mahomes: Still the best in the league, we still have yet to see a single reason to doubt that he isn’t the league’s MVP favorite every year. It’s malpractice to guess otherwise. In my scenarios, the Chiefs and Eagles repeat their league-best records and march to the playoffs. In this instance, I’d give the odds to the best QB in the league, blazing his way out of a competitive AFC.
Other Candidates: Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen
Offensive Player of the Year
Christian McCaffrey: Kyle Shanahan found creative ways to use the star RB, who also managed to stay healthy for a large chunk of the year. With skill players to keep the volume reasonable, McCaffrey is the single most exciting offensive player in the game today. He might be one of the most efficient skill players in league by a cardinal mile.
Other candidates: Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase
Defensive Player of the Year
Myles Garrett: Garrett is an unbelievably disruptive pass rusher, with the speed and strength to get into the backfield at will. He beat up offensive lines throughout his career, and is now next to another pass rusher (Za’Darius Smith) that will limit the opponent’s ability to key on one player in pass protection. Micah Parsons may be the favorite in the odds, but Garrett’s pure edge rushing talent will be enough to push him over the edge this year.
Other Candidates: Micah Parsons, Aaron Donald, the Bosas, T.J. Watt
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Bijan Robinson: It’s Bijan Time in Atlanta and, with Arthur Smith’s now well-documented history of running the ball with great frequency in both Tennessee and Atlanta, it’s clear Robinson will be a featured piece. In Tennessee, Derrick Henry’s dominance necessitated a run-first approach, but Smith’s time as the head coach in Atlanta proved that running is in his DNA. Even as a rookie, Robinson looks more like Henry in terms of pure skill and his ability to take over game than Smith has had since Henry.
Other Candidates: Pick a rookie QB, any rookie QB — Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Jalen Carter: This feels like a simple two-man race. Carter, a consensus “Best player in the draft” type, fell down to 8th overall with the Eagles due to his involvement in a high-speed car wreck that killed multiple people. Carter had previously been cited for alleged street racing, so his involvement at the scene of the wreck rightly scared some teams off. Nonetheless, Carter was cleared of specific wrongdoing and, provided he is mentally ready for the NFL, has the clearest path to visible dominance. Will Anderson with the Texans is also a day one starter and disrupter, so he could overtake Carter if Carter starts as a rotational piece due to the depth the Eagles possess.
Other Candidates: Just Will Anderson, pretty much
Coach of the Year
Mike McDaniel: If I truly believe in the scenario above, no coach would be more deserving of this honor than Mike McDaniel. McDaniel and Saleh both are looking at COTY honors if they knock the Bills off of the division pedestal. COTY tries to look for coaches that maximize their teams and, while Andy Reid probably deserves it every year, maximizing Patrick Mahomes leaves plenty of room for error. These odds are much more scattered than the other awards because the winner typically delivered a surprising result.
Other Candidates: Andy Reid, Dan Campbell, Doug Pederson, Kyle Shanahan
