Numbers and Off-Season
| Weighted DVOA Offense | 5th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense | 4th |
| Offense — Early Down Success | 9th – Run 7th, pass 11th |
| Offense — Explosive Play Rate | 3rd |
| Defense — Explosive Play Rate | 8th most pass, 17th most run |
| Key Additions | Devante Parker WR, Jabril Peppers S, Malcolm Butler CB, Ty Montgomery WR, Terrance Mitchell CB, Mack Wilson LB |
| Re-signed Players | Trent Brown T, Ja’Whaun Bentley LB, James White RB, Matthew Slater ST, Nick Folk K, Brian Hoyer QB, James Ferentz IOL, Devin McCourty S |
| Key Departures | Jarrett Stitham QB, Shaq Mason G, Chase Winovich EDGE, Kyle Van Noy LB, Dont’a Hightower LB, Jamie Collins LB |
| Key Draft Picks | Cole Strange G, Tyquan Thornton WR, Marcus Jones CB |
Narrative:
Quarterback
In a year that is all about Mac Jones, the Patriots did shockingly little to help their young quarterback, choosing to spin their wheels rather than move in any particular direction. If anything, this seems to be an endorsement of the kid: Mac led a far more efficient offense than anyone could have guessed, especially in choices he made within the offense. Mac was the 11th graded quarterback last year by Pro Football Focus, in both passing and overall grades, a startling achievement for the rookie. To put that in perspective, rookie phenom Justin Herbert finished 2020 at QB14 overall, and that anointed him Football Jesus! Mac’s secret to success this year was the 6th best turnover-worthy plays percentage, putting him in company with Herbert, Brady, Rodgers, Burrow, Murray, and tied with Russ. His 4.4% big time throw rate was mediocre, but a combination of mediocre gunslinger and excellent game manager is a winner in this NFL. Mac must have lent a great deal of confidence to the Patriots, as they spent their spring downsizing their coaching staff, staying stingy in free agency, and continuing to build a complementary run game. There is one major concern: from week 12 on, Mac only graded above 63 by PFF metrics (already well below average) twice, once against the Jaguars (a 3 TD performance to clinch the playoffs against a garbage team) and in the Wild Card game against the juggernaut Bills with 2 big time throws to 1 turnover-worthy play. Was Mac figured out or did he hit a rookie wall he’ll overcome in 2022? The defenses on that stretch were tough: Tennessee, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Buffalo again, Miami after the Jags game, and a third closer against Buffalo.
Against Miami, the results for Mac were mixed. In his first game, I was shocked to see him make great throws against the blitz again and again and again. He went 8/13 against pressure for 74 yards and a touchdown. His team lost only because of their conservatism: a freak Xavien Howard strip and timely audible by Tua won the day, and Mac really could not have done much more. Game 2 in Miami was an absolute nightmare. The pressure numbers bore out okay, and he only made 5 throws under duress, while he took 2 more sacks. Still, with an early Dolphins lead, Mac couldn’t find ways to stay on the field, finding his team down 27-10 before coming back too late. Mac found a way to rarely be part of the problem, but can he be the solution when the pressure is on?
Coaching
Bill Belichick is the GOAT, and I say that with full respect to Don Shula. Until researching this, I did not know the Patriots found a way to stay top 10 in essentially every 2021 efficiency metric until they met a more talented and hot team in the first round of the playoffs. Bill and Josh McDaniels built last year’s team in the sandlot, combining aged veterans far from their starring days with a free agent spending frenzy to stack chances at regular season wins. Not all of the free agents panned out, and the team is not necessarily built to succeed this year and beyond, but Belichick inched closer to the coveted career win metric held by Shula: the 10 wins Belichick managed puts him 38 behind Don Shula, just four more successful years away from the record. That record, if Belichick achieves it, will likely never be broken: the hottest coaching names in the league now have media entities willing to pay them like players, and both Seans (Payton and McVay) have flirted with or taken that route just this offseason. Andy Reid, who himself seems near retirement, is still 100 games from the record and the next closest (Mike Tomlin) has less than half of Shula’s career wins. Shula and Belichick stand in a pantheon of longevity and excellence in their eras alone, men who quite literally shaped football. They belong with the great movers and shakers in ownership (Al Davis, Jerry Jones, etc.) and the great players from Jim Thorpe to Tom Brady. It’s awe-inspiring to be witnessing it.
That said, Belichick seems to have few people he’d consider working with these days. With McDaniels’s departure, only Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, Jerod Mayo, and Steve Belichick stand out as guys with a profile. There is no named QB coach, OL coach, and essentially no assistants to any of the position coaches. And, of course, no named offensive or defensive coordinators. Bill is fine with this, but rumblings within the league suggest confusion with the hierarchy. Judge and Patricia were laughed out of their respective jobs, while Mayo was a hot name who interviewed to leave and Steve Belichick might be a name as well, if not for his last name. It’s a weird situation to say the least, and the coaching this season will come down to how well the offense sustains themselves after McDaniels takes over in Vegas. But when Belichick rebounds from a down year with the 5th best offense and 4th best defense in DVOA? He’s not to be counted out, and crawling past 70 in search of 38 more wins.
Offense
The offense won’t have much of a makeover coming into 2022. DeVante Parker, our old friend, will immediately take the X role, winning at the line of scrimmage and giving Mac an excellent target for contested catches, which has been sorely missing for the Patriots post-Brady. Jakobi Meyers has continued to emerge in the slot, looking like a top tier option after a healthy year. He should have more room to work with Parker and the excellent Hunter Henry demanding more attention due to their own specific skillsets. Henry was excellent over the middle at all levels, and Parker can get down the field. The RBs all looked fantastic, as Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and James White all graded as top 25 players by PFF. Harris and Stevenson are remarkably physical, and White (when healthy) is still the excellent receiving back he was with Brady. The Patriots need a sprinter who can win from a position off of the line of scrimmage, and I’m skeptical that the raw and lean Tyquan Thornton can make that leap this early.
The real strength of the offense is in front, even without the fantastic Shaq Mason. Each position is a bright spot: Isaiah Wynn was a top tackle in 2020 before stepping back to good in 2021, David Andrews is a beacon of consistency at center, Michael Onwenu seems prepared to finally step into a full-time role after years of emerging play, and Trent Brown is back as another Only-Good-In-New-England star. First-rounder Cole Strange, a widely-maligned pick, is the final piece of this line: despite the mockery, Strange was seen well across the league and their last head-scratcher interior 1st round pick (Logan Mankins) ended up a star. This is Belichick’s forte, and his clear weakness (WR) is the only thing that can sink this supporting cast.
Defense
Undoubtedly, the greatest fear for the Patriots is a leaky defense. After years of consistent front seven play, the front has finally aged out. Kyle Van Noy is gone, Dont’a Hightower is gone, and Jamie Collins is gone as well. Coupled with Chase Winovich, are there enough linebackers to play in this scheme? Ja’Whaun Bentley is resigned and the team traded for Browns backup LB Mack Wilson, but there is not depth. Upfront, veterans Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, and Deatrich Wise Jr. are not loved by analytics folks, but did the job as well as possible last year. Christian Barmore and Michael Judon were the notable two on the line and, while relatively disliked by PFF, both seem to be key figures in the 2022 campaign.
Rather than bolster the aging front, the Patriots added reinforcements to a secondary that they worked hard to resign where possible. J.C. Jackson’s prove-it year meant he priced himself well out of New England’s range, earning the big deal with the Chargers. Kyle Dugger and Devin McCourty return to anchor a relatively-strong safety unit, with Jabril Peppers added as a utility player. At corner, Jalen Mills is the only player back with much of a pedigree, with the Patriots desperate enough to get Malcolm Butler out of retirement to team with Terrance Mitchell. The team’s parting with Stephon Gilmore last year has quickly created difficulties outside. Much was made about the defense when the team moved from 2-4 at the start of 2021 to 10-7 at the finish, but it must be noted that the team closed 1-4, counting the playoff debacle, allowing 27, 33, 33, and ultimately 47 points in the losses. The team fell apart and the reinforcements feel a bit too little at a juncture that is a bit too late.
Special Teams
Matthew Slater, special teams legend, returns to a unit that may struggle due to a lack of depth. Nick Folk resigned after a very efficient year, though the team rarely asked him to line up for the long field goal. Jake Bailey had an off-year in terms of hangtime, but he still seems like a top 10 punter. This piece of the Patriots shouldn’t embarrass them: at least they have a coordinator.
How Do We Get The Dub?
I think we get the dub. In fact, we get the SWEEP after Flores managed to do it with the Dolphins last year. Top reasons include:
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have no reasonable competition on the edges.
- A McDaniels zone-run scheme has the speed to win on the edge and the Patriots seem weaker than ever at the speed needed to hit the edge.
- I’m betting on Jones’s back half of the season being more indicative of his ceiling than the front half, especially without Josh McDaniels.
- Miami has the horses in the secondary to stop the two Pats weapons: Parker and Henry match up poorly against Howard and Holland respectively.
WEEK 1: Dolphins 27-21
WEEK 17: Dolphins 21-20
Dolphins 2-0
