Numbers and Off-Season
| Weighted DVOA Offense | 8th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense | 3rd |
| Offense — Early Down Success | 5th – Run 6th, pass 9th |
| Offense — Explosive Play Rate | 11th |
| Defense — Explosive Play Rate | 2nd pass, 23rd run |
| Key Additions | Duke Johnson RB, Jamison Crowder WR, O.J. Howard TE, David Quessenberry IOL, Rodger Saffold IOL, Jordan Phillips IDL, DaQuan Jones IDL, Tim Settle IDL, Von Miller EDGE, Shaq Lawson EDGE |
| Re-signed Players | Matt Barkley QB, Taiwan Jones RB, Isaiah McKenzie WR, Siran Neal CB, |
| Key Departures | Mitch Trubisky QB, Cole Beasley WR, Emmanuel Sanders WR, Jon Feliciano IOL, Daryl Williams T, Harrison Phillips IDL, Star Lotulelei IDL, Jerry Hughes EDGE, Mario Addison EDGE, Levi Wallace CB |
| Key Draft Picks | Kaiir Elam CB, James Cook RB, Terrel Bernard LB, Matt Araiza P |
Narrative:
Quarterback
The Rams may have won the Super Bowl, but the real Super Bowl for NFL writers and commentators came in the divisional round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs: Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, two QBs executing at the highest level we have ever seen from the position. Allen, who lost only because his defense folded in regulation and he lost a coin flip, was the better QB that night for my money. His completions to Gabriel Davis showcased instinct, skill, and precision that we never could have predicted back in 2019 after two years of laughable accuracy and a playoff game that featured one of the most bewildering lateral decisions in history. The narrative of the 2021 playoffs, however, obscures just how good he was to that point: after week 11, when the Bills dropped an embarrassing game to the Colts, Allen only finished with a sub-70 PFF offensive grade once (against Carolina in a decisive win), helped along by good-to-elite rushing grades in each game. 423 of his 763 rushing yards (a total that put him in a tier with only Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson) came after that ill-fated Colts game, and he added 66 and 68 in his two playoff outings. In the playoffs, Allen cranked his passing game up to the levels he hit in his phenomenal 2020 campaign: 48/62, 9 TDs, 0 INTs, 637 yards for a 149 passer rating, a near-perfect 94.3 QBR from ESPN, and a PFF offensive score of 95.8 (92.2 passing, 92 running). He was PFF’s best player at any position. That kind of run won Joe Flacco a Super Bowl. That he *didn’t* win a Super Bowl is almost a crime: he had the best score given by PFF to a QB in the postseason in their history, a literal perfect game against the Patriots (every offensive drive was a TD), and a 4 TD 400 total yard effort to close the year.
However, Allen’s consistency simply wasn’t there in the same way over the course of the 2021 regular season. His passing success was far less efficient, dropping from a passer rating of around 107 and QBR of 76.6 in 2020 to a more human 92.2 and 60.7 this year. In 2020, PFF graded him below 72 in just six games compared to 10 games in 2021. Five of his six worst-graded games in the last two years passing the ball happened this year. It was a whacky season for Allen, and that was the most important reason that the Bills ended up in a dogfight with the Patriots for the division, ultimately clinching only in the final week of the season despite being far and away the most talented team in the AFC East. The Bills clearly believe that Playoff Josh is what they have in their 26-year-old star, and if that’s true, this team is a Super Bowl favorite on his back alone. For that ascension to be cemented, though, Allen must overcome the setbacks that come as a product of unimaginable success. Much like Cam Newton, Allen looked like the most dominant force in the league at the time of a contract year, and he delivered as promised. Newton (a good comparison for Allen: the power of a FB, the balance of a WR/RB, and the precision in his prime of a fighter jet) saw injuries and a deteriorating supporting cast keep him from ever recapturing 2015. On the other hand, Tom Brady saw his coaches elevated, his WRs come and go, and he weathered just fine in New England. Allen’s future success is far from a guarantee, but his meteoric rise is incredible all the same. He might be the most fascinating player in the league entering 2022.
Coaching
Sean McDermott channels early-career Belichick with Allen these days: while Allen and Brian Daboll create an evolving and exciting show on one side of the ball, McDermott has propelled a relatively no-name unit into a perennial candidate for top defensive efficiency in the league. In 2017, McDermott joined a Bills team that had seen a stout defense (4th in DVOA in 2013, 3rd in 2014) fall apart (24th in 2015, 27th in 2016) and needed another defensive mind to pick up the pieces. As the architect of an incredible defensive turnaround in Carolina alongside Cam Newton (undoubtedly an influence on the team selection of Josh Allen), McDermott brought an identity to the unit and a sense of team-building throughout the organization. After improving to 18th in DVOA in 2017, McDermott’s Bills would finish 2nd, 7th, 12th, and then 1st in 2021. Through this time, Tre White is probably the only guy you would call a star, with other good players playing up to the system. While I do credit McDermott’s leadership for most of the defensive excellence, he has hit new heights with assistant head coach Leslie Frazier coordinating the defense, and Frazier is well-deserving of his own shot at head coaching.
The real coaching news in Buffalo is in the departure of Brian Daboll, the star assistant known for a big personality and unheard-of aggression, especially during his 2020 campaign. Daboll’s story is interesting: he started as one of the many now-famous graduate assistants at Michigan State under Nick Saban, and made the leap into the league through Bill Belichick. He coached various positions in New England until getting poached by Mangini, only to not be retained after Mangini was fired. This became a trend: hired by Jets and not retained, hired by the Browns and not retained (but he got two years that time!), hired by the Dolphins and not retained, hired by the Chiefs and not retained. In the end, he went back to New England to a demotion of TE coach, only to find himself coaching up the exciting tandem of the GOAT Rob Gronkowski and literal murderer Aaron Hernandez. His dreams of coordinating an offense and coaching a team led him back to Saban, as he coached Tua to a national championship in his only year with Saban. The experience brought him back to Buffalo and the rest is history. Much will be made of who made who with Allen and Daboll: the offense was deeply subpar in Allen’s first two years, ranking in the bottom half for efficiency, only to skyrocket when Allen’s personal training revolutionized his accuracy. But Daboll himself also became known for incredibly aggressive play calls, eschewing the run in short yardage and early-down situations. Regardless, the band broke up and we’ll see how the solo acts perform. Allen says he expects continuity with promoted QB coach Ken Dorsey, and I’d guess that’s what we see. Notably, Dorsey was Cam Newton’s initial personal QB coach, which landed him a gig with the Panthers as QB coach through Newton’s MVP breakthrough before getting cleaned out with the rest of the Carolina offensive staff in 2017. Dorsey was picked up in 2019 by the Bills for their own Cam Newton clone, and will hope to sustain such success in ways the former player and team could not.
Offense
The Bills personnel movement on offense remained mostly stagnant, investing in stopgaps and young players. On the line, Jon Feliciano, Darryl Williams, and Ike Boettger are out, as the Bills completely cleaned house at guard. To replace them, the team signed 34-year-old Rodger Saffold (a stabilizing force for both TEN and the LA Rams), and matched a Bears offer for 2019 undrafted free agent Ryan Bates, who delivered average play in 2021 after injuries thrust him into the lineup. The team loved center Mitch Morse for some reason, extending him early to a 10 mil annual deal: Morse graded 24th of all centers by PFF, and was more of the problem than the solution for the lagging Bills run game (when Allen wasn’t running, of course). At tackle, the Bills will see continuity from Dion Dawkins (excellent pass blocker, good all-around tackle) and Spencer Brown (genuine disaster with PFF blocking efficiency numbers right near Jesse Davis, Liam Eichenberg, and Austin Jackson). They did, however, sign David Quessenberry from Tennessee, who can certainly compete with Brown, especially in the run game. Quessenberry is in on a one-year deal, and the team would probably love to see their 3rd round pick win the camp battle. Neither player has historically done well in the pass game. This is likely a below-average line, and the only real weakness for Buffalo.
On the perimeter, the team seems to have simply made a few swaps. Gabriel Davis, an emerging weapon, steps into the full-time role opposite Stefon Diggs, allowing Emmanuel Sanders to walk. Davis vaulted into the starting lineup in week 14, and never relinquished the role. He can win in all kinds of ways, but his work between the numbers is incredible: he caught 28 of 39 targets across the middle for 9 TDs (compared to 1 Allen INT targeting him in that area) and 562 of his 791 yards. His 201 yard, 4 TD game in the playoff loss to the Chiefs might be more legendary than Allen’s own play in that game. Once he got the opportunity, Davis delivered. Diggs, the linchpin of the 2020 success, was fed less targets in 2021, which is likely good for the offense as a whole. Against Kansas City, however, he disappeared. His role will be something to monitor in 2022. Isaiah McKenzie seemed poised to step into a full-time slot role after emerging with 6 TDs in 2020, but he will likely stay in a timeshare, this time with former Jets standout Jamison Crowder. McKenzie is the more electric player, in my opinion, as I remember the demolishment of the Dolphins he did single-handedly in Week 17 of 2020, but Crowder has had good seasons. Dawson Knox was a highlight player who can disappear, and the Bills will pair him with O.J. Howard in an attempt to resurrect Howard’s career. This is a team set up to spread the field and let Allen sling the ball in and out of structure, but can they construct a run game to complement that strategy? At RB, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss return with the addition of Dalvin Cook’s little brother, James, and further production is needed to minimize Allen’s workload: even Superman breaks!
Defense
As mentioned above, Leslie Frazier and Sean McDermott have created an efficient machine on defense, enduring injuries and delivering results each week. The blitzes are exotic, the coverages are glued together by linebacker Matt Milano and two fantastic safeties, and the corners have pressure continuously taken off of them, allowing league-average players to thrive. Unfortunately, there’s a bad taste in the mouths of analysts because Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs managed to break the Bills down the middle in just 13 seconds to force an overtime that ended in a Chiefs TD. Rest assured, the Bills are ready to go, and they made shrewd moves on this side of the ball to start building in places that were sneakily warts. While the Bills were undoubtedly fantastic in aggregate defense, they were the highest-variance defense as measured by DVOA since 2019, painting the picture of a team that would dominate one week and look leakier the next. Despite ranking so high in efficiency, PFF only graded them at 9th best defense, probably because of their tendency to beat up on weak offenses: their top 4 games were against the Dolphins twice, then the Texans and the Jets. As a result, the Bills went for a big swing, landing the remarkably-consistent Von Miller to be the new defensive star. 2019 was the first year of Miller’s career where PFF graded him below the elite 90, and then Miller missed 2020. 2021 was a return to form, as Miller started strong with Denver only to explode en route to a Super Bowl championship with the Rams. The 33-year-old Miller signed a 6-year deal off of 2021 that is, in reality, a 3-year deal that likely takes him to retirement. The Bills want to be able to get to the QB, of course, but Miller also serves an important mentorship role: Greg Rousseau (the 2021 1st round pick), Boogie Basham (2021 2nd), and A.J. Epenesa (2020 2nd) are all young, ascending players that the Bills believe can learn an immense amount across the line from Miller while also providing an excellent edge rotation that allows Miller to rest. On the interior, the Bills made major changes: the team let Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, and Vernon Butler all walk, keeping only the perennially-disappointing Ed Olivier (though he had his best season last year). They exchange those players for DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, and Jordan Phillips, none of whom seems terribly encouraging in the run game, but all of whom can be disruptive pass rushers. The Bills want to play physical and put pressure on teams attempting to keep up with Allen and the offense; the approach is sound, even if the team may suffer without Harrison Phillips especially. At linebacker, Tremaine Edmunds has never lived up to his draft status, while the versatile Matt Milano has managed to do it all, working well in coverage and pass rush space over his career.
The safeties won’t help much in the run game, if history is any indication. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer (who appears ready to skip the offseason program) are fantastic deep safeties and in the box, a versatile team who can cover anybody at any time. PFF loves them, and I love watching them work whenever they aren’t playing Miami. They are effortless cover 3 and cover 4 guys, which allows the team to take pressure off of the corners. Those corners, incidentally, will change this year: Kaiir Elam seems poised to start by default as the rookie CB after the departure of Levi Wallace, who the Bills have seemingly tried and failed to replace every year of McDermott’s tenure. Elam offers more physicality than we’ve seen from the Bills corners at 6’2” and he excels in pressing at the line of scrimmage. The Bills like to disguise coverages, so Elam will be protected early in his career. Taron Johnson returns in the nickel after his best season yet, though his poor tackling may put more stress on the safeties. The Bills are built to win up-front and play solid zone coverage on the back end: their consistent high-level talent knows the system and is ready to roll behind the new-look pass rush. This is not a unit built for comebacks, however: if the Bills offense falters, the defense will likely crumble against the run. Their early tests in week 2 vs. the Titans and week 4 vs. the Ravens will be telling for their potential.
Special Teams
Punt God Matt Araiza, a YouTube sensation, arrives to challenge Matt Haack after the worst year of his career. Haack set career lows in yards-per-punt and net yards, as well as hangtime and punts inside the 20, in 2021. Tyler Bass has grown into a consistent kicker with a powerful leg, though his role is mostly kicking extra points due to the fantastic Bills offense.
How Do We Get The Dub?
Boy, how do you beat the Bills? The defensive front remake, combined with secondary consistency, makes this the scariest defense the Dolphins will face (twice!) all year. Tua’s ribs probably hurt already with Von Miller joining a team that annihilated him in week 2. Tyreek and Waddle will probably have to play underneath, and their explosiveness will be mitigated by the two excellent safeties. Tre’Davious White will be opportunistic in eliminating the pair, as well. The Dolphins will have to ride a 49ers-like run game for a win, but I’m not terribly optimistic there. McDaniel faced Buffalo once with the 49ers, losing 34-24. Defensively, the outlook is similar: your best bet is to catch Josh Allen on a bad throwing day and hope that you’re physical enough to hold him under 25 rush yards. The Bills went 5-1 in the division last year, and that only loss came in a freak wind game: they sweep us until we proved otherwise, and have earned that right.
Week 3: Bills 28-24
Week 15: Bills 31-21
Dolphins 2-3
