Numbers and Off-Season
| Weighted DVOA Offense | 12th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense | 24th |
| Offense – Early Down Success | 22nd – Run 23rd, pass 20th |
| Offense – Explosive Play Rate | 13th |
| Defense – Explosive Play Rate | 25th pass, 20th run |
| Key Additions | Hayden Hurst TE, La’el Collins T, Ted Karras IOL, Alex Cappa IOL |
| Key Departures | Riley Rieff T, C.J. Uzomah TE, Quinton Spain IOL, Larry Ogunjobi IDL, Darius Phillips CB |
| Key Draft Picks | Daxton Hill S, Cam Taylor-Britt CB, Zachary Carter IDL |
| Re-signed Players | Eli Apple CB, Jessie Bates S, Kevin Huber P |
Narrative:
Quarterback
Every discussion of how the Bengals became the defending AFC champs starts (and essentially ends) with Joe Burrow. 2020’s 17th-ranked QB on PFF before his injury, Burrow exploded this year on those grading metrics, ending the year as the best of 37 qualifying QBs. For fans in Ohio and Louisiana, this felt like the arrival of providence; Burrow has a presence about him that makes you believe, and a championship pedigree that seems to back up that presence. Much has been made about how well Burrow elevates his supporting cast, but you can hone in on Burrow’s throws in a vacuum to get an idea of just how special he was. Burrow was tied with Aaron Rodgers for 2nd in Big Time Throw Rate (a stat that measures the throws that are precise, dynamic, and important enough to create opportunities for wins) while also keeping his turnover-worthy play rate (a stat that measures throws that could have been, should have been, or were interceptions that were at fault of the QB) at the 5th lowest, two spots below Aaron Rodgers. The Rodgers comparison is notable because he was the goddamn MVP of the goddamn league. Burrow stood stride-for-stride as a thrower with Rodgers and Brady, the two best passers last year by a cardinal mile. He did it while he suffered through a league-leading 51 sacks and, while keeping his average time to throw down to a 21st-longest 2.63 seconds (just .1 of a second longer than Tua), he still managed the 7th highest average depth of target. In other words, Joe Burrow dropped back and simply launched the ball downfield, and managed to both create big plays and keep his passes from falling into harm’s way. For a second-year player to have that type of game is fairly otherworldly: when other QBs take the all-pro leap, it tends to come with a team that has immense firepower and a scheme that gets mismatches on playmakers (think Josh Allen adding Stefon Diggs and feeding him targets, or Kyler Murray using DeAndre Hopkins as a security blanket). Burrow did not rely on scheme, he instead Madden Glitched his way into contested vertical throws that were on the money time and time again. Sure, he still ate in the quick game with a cadre of weapons who can make plays, but 11% of his throws were Go balls and he had a 116.4 passer rating on such throws according to PFF. That’s nuts! As it now stands, Burrow is quite clearly Brady’s heir apparent right now: capable of changing games with a combination of intelligence, preparation, and the ability to make explosive throws without normal levels of risk.
The sacks remain a question mark for Burrow. Priding himself on his toughness, Burrow discussed at length this offseason how he’s fine with some sacks because the chance that he makes a big play outweighs the risk of 10 lost yards. Yeah yeah, pal, but what about that knee we all saw explode against Washington in 2020? Burrow is not injury-prone necessarily, but as Ryan Tannehill’s career in Miami will attest, there are only so many years that 300-pound men can dive on top of you 50+ times with the ball in your hand until the body gives up a bit. Tannehill didn’t resurrect his career after three injury-plagued years until he rested his body for nearly a full year and took over for a Titans team that ran the ball first. Tannehill, incidentally, had twice the amount of sacks this year than 2020 and his play deteriorated, culminating in an embarrassing divisional round playoff performance against these Bengals. Tannehill is a cautionary tale for Burrow, who will need the kind of expertise Brady had surrounding him (a Belichick defense and a Dante Scarnecchia offensive line setting the standard for the rest of the league) to meet his potential. Joe Burrow is exciting, electric, and it’s a treat for football fans to have Brady’s heir apparent in such a likable package.
Coaching
I am hard-wired to hate the Cincinnati Bengals coaching staff: Zac Taylor was the nepotism-hire of a QB coach who helped Tannehill start his career as a deeply-mediocre young QB with poor instincts in a bad system. Across the ball, Lou Anaramo was certainly a productive Dolphins coach, helping Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones, and Bobby McCain find their footing in the league, but the homegrown secondary would take a giant step forward in the Brian Flores defense after his departure. The situation now is hard to parse out in Cincinnati, as the team punched so far above its weight class in 2021. Zac Taylor, of course, went from a coach universally thought to be lucky to even have his job to a 4 year extension through 2026, a year I think it is utterly impossible for him to see. Offensively, Taylor relied on an otherworldly amount of plays to simply go directly to Ja’Marr Chase, and for good reason: 54% of throws to Chase were successful plays, and Chase himself got 155 opportunities. He was 8/14 on deep ball success on 3rd and 4th down, which is itself particularly eye-opening. I don’t have the capability to measure everyone, but let’s put it this way: Chase’s deep ball efficacy in clutch situations was right on par with MVP Cooper Kupp. I don’t want to penalize Zac for simply having a good WR, but the goal of an efficient offense is not to feed two good WRs half the balls on 3rd and 4th down, it is to be successful on all downs and to have a diverse scheme. On first down, Taylor did not achieve anywhere near the aggressive balance teams look for in this day and age. The Bengals ran 289 times on 1st down as compared to 259 passes, a 53% tendency to run. That 289/259 is positively archaic: the Bills hit 241 run/331 pass (42% run), the Rams 282 run/281 pass (50%, in a similar offensive philosophy to the Bengals), the Colts (with Jonathan Taylor and Carson fucking Wentz!!!!!) went 241/225 (52% run), and Burrow’s clearest comparison QB with the LA Chargers went 239/262 (48%). Joe Mixon can play good football, but the Bengals had a 53% 1st down success rate in the air to 47% on the ground, still choosing to run the ball over and over on early downs. Against the Chiefs in the AFC championship, the Bengals went 6/17 on successful 1st down runs (35%) and 5/12 on 1st down passes (42%). They even ran more on 1st down in the 2nd half while down, with their success rate 45% on those runs to 57% in the passing game. On early downs in the Super Bowl, Burrow threw 10/12 165 yards and a TD with only one sack (!!) for just a two yard loss. The run game was fine, 11 carries for 66, but would you rather have a 6 yard run or a chance for your spectacular QB and his playmaking WRs to get the throw off without a Rams defensive line playing the pass exclusively? The Bengals went from the first drive of the 2nd half (a 75-yard TD bomb to Tee Higgins) to the final drive attempting just 2 passes on first down and they were BOTH SCREEN PASSES! Abysmal play calling in a career-defining stretch by Zac Taylor. It simply must improve, or Burrow and Chase will need sandlot heroics on clutch downs again this year.
Defensively, the Bengals scheme is simple. That isn’t inherently a bad thing: Larry Ogunjobi and D.J. Reader were counted on to set the tone down low and the rest of the defense played bend-don’t-break coverages. As a result, Anarumo’s unit ranked 8th in variance, suggesting a defense that gave you similar results week after week, ranking right next to the Rams in that category (consistently great) and the Giants (consistently not great). Anarumo’s masterclass on defense was the stifling of Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship game, which Bill Barnwell eventually concluded came down to a simultaneous Mahomes meltdown and a conservative approach upfront (rushing 3) combined with an aggressive approach in back (playing receivers tight and physical). That performance certainly was gutsy, but this Bengals approach (tough and physical upfront while dropping into deep zones) feels equal to the offensive play-calling: it’s a throwback. With a personnel department that has finally succeeded in bringing some of the most exciting young talent in the league to Cincinnati, the coaching staff seems reluctant to indulge in risk-taking while their players courted such risks with their own choices all season. It’s the kind of tension that could be the explanation for a major year of regression.
Offense
I’ll start with the pessimism: the offensive line makeover (three new starters), a reason for all of the Cincinnati fans I know to express certainty that the team will not regress, is overblown. The fans love Ted Karras as center, and he was a top 20 guard with New England last year, but Karras last played center in Miami, ranking dead average at 17th by PFF metrics and wearing out his welcome with Flores. Alex Cappa is no athletic marvel at RG, but he’s certainly the most consistent of the pickups, ranking 18th out of all guards last year. Cappa has gotten better each year in his career so far with Tampa Bay, but so did the line around him. Cappa’s grades only moved above average after RT Tristan Wirfs was drafted to play next to him, and he played his whole career so far with the solid Ryan Jenson at center. Cappa has played the objectively-easiest position on the line sandwiched between Pro Bowl players throughout his ascension, both years also featuring Tom Brady at QB! There are reasons to be concerned. The surprise on the offensive line came with the release of La’el Collins in Dallas, and the Bengals pounced quickly with a 3-year contract for reasonable money. Collins had his first truly elite year in 2019, following that with a year that ended with a hip surgery (one that may have long-term implications, according to sources in Dallas), but returned to form in 2021. If Collins has even one good year in the tank, he is a great addition to an offense that has explosive playmakers ready to go. He has been a better run blocker than pass blocker in his career, which should be watched this year: Burrow’s protection is on everyone’s minds, and there might be dire consequences in pass protection if his hip regresses. Elsewhere, Jonah Williams has quietly put together two years of quality tackle play at left tackle since being drafted to the Bengals: he’s a young talent that should benefit from some consistency at other positions. Left guard will be a competition, and word is that Jackson Carman (who has been under fire for recently-revealed sexual misconduct allegations from college) is the leader. He was piss poor last year, which pretty much puts him on par with the other Bengals holdovers.
I’ve already managed to say so much about Chase and Higgins, but here’s some extra fun stats about the star receivers in Cincy: they were the 8th and 11th top-graded receivers by PFF last year, Chase had 36 contested targets (4th in the league) to Higgins’s 43 (2nd), and Burrow had a 117.1 rating while targeting Chase (4th) and 114.8 (6th) while targeting Higgins. The company on that final stat is Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, and Hunter Renfrow as the top 3, Devante Adams at 5, and Deebo Samuel at 7. They work so well with Burrow, it’s hard to know sometimes who made who. They combined for 19 drops, though, which simply must improve, though that is also a reflection of just how often they are fed targets (for context, Deebo dropped the most and Tyreek/Jaylen Waddle were tied for 4th). Joe Mixon had his best PFF grade as a Bengal last year, but he remains a fairly one-dimensional player, offering nothing as a pass blocker and little more as a receiver. As a third-down back, Samaje Perine may forever be known for getting demolished in short yardage situations in the Super Bowl, but the team clearly trusts him. That trust appears unearned; he got absolutely lit up in pass protection and did not offer any of the running success we saw from him in 2020, as PFF noted his elusiveness score (a proprietary measure of back success compared to blocking) dropped from 84.5 to 49. Yuck. Tight end also clearly got worse, with C.J. Uzomah leaving for the Jets and journeyman Hayden Hurst taking his place. Hurst is three years removed from his best season, as the second-fiddle TE for Lamar Jackson on his MVP run. After Mark Andrews solidified himself as the top dog in Baltimore, Hurst played two forgettable years in Atlanta. The only Bengals holdover from prior to the Taylor regime, Tyler Boyd rounds out the Bengals supporting cast. Boyd is a favorite of mine; he’s so tough over the middle and consistently gives top-tier slot play. Chase and Higgins have meant less targets for him on money downs, but Boyd can work any underneath route combination and is essential to the intermediate pass damage the other two can do.
Defense
The defensive personnel makeover in Cincinnati has been the focus of post-Marvin Lewis transactions. After years of great defensive players in Cincinnati like Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, William Jackson III, and Carl Lawson, the Bengals have stuck to a system that features relatively little star power. Most of their resources are allocated upfront, with a major acquisition occurring each year: D.J. Reader in 2020 (excellent run-stuffing over the last two years), Trey Hendrickson in 2021 (5th in the league this year with 14 sacks in his first year in a full-time role) and B.J. Hill in 2021 (skilled in both pass rushing and run stuffing). On the other edge, Sam Hubbard has remained consistent if unspectacular. Anarumo’s defense will rely on this front 4 again this year, with Zachary Carter potentially mixing in as a rookie pass specialist. This unit is thin: very little depth upfront might leave the Bengals exposed, especially at edge. I wouldn’t be shocked if that is already a storyline in week 4, as they got extremely lucky in terms of health in 2021. They need that luck, too, because the linebackers in Cincinnati are nothing to write home about. Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt both play at almost exactly league average according to PFF, with both grading out slightly better in coverage. With the team allocating less than $4 million between the two players, it’s clear this team sees the position group as far less important than the big guys upfront and the players on the back end.
That back end, by the way, is incredibly fun to watch, even when they aren’t celebrating a Mahomes meltdown. Jessie Bates made his money in the playoffs after a shaky 2021 regular season. Bates was the team’s best player in 2020 by a mile, and PFF rated him the best safety in the league that year. Bates has remarkable range, and might be one of the best deep third safeties in the league. That list is short, and Bates belongs in the top 5 without a doubt. Cincinnati is lucky to have him for a year, but he comes in surly: Bates is currently skipping the offseason workouts in protest of his franchise tag. A long-term deal might not come; safeties moved around a lot this offseason, and that trend may continue as the salaries are low due to high supply and a rising trend of defensive schemes that take pressure off the safeties. The other safety position is interesting: Vonn Bell was an excellent addition to the team two years ago, coming in clutch in the playoffs this year, and generally playing well above average, especially in physical coverage. And yet the Bengals spent their first pick on a versatile safety: Dax Hill is a slightly-slenderer Bates clone, and it will be interesting to see how the Bengals deploy the three of them. Hill will likely see time in the slot, mixing in with Mike Hilton, but his small size does create some worry that he won’t be quite as productive as he was while a standout at Michigan in college. If there’s drama in the safety room, the corner room seems much more settled: the Bengals resigned Eli Apple and he figures to start across from the underrated Chidobe Awuzie. Apple is a quintessential fine-enough-I-guess guy with terrible hands and food takes, and he’s going to play for only as long as it takes for rookie Cam Taylor-Britt to seize the starting spot. Awuzie, meanwhile, elevated his play big time after leaving Dallas. A year after allowing 25 catches for 15.8 yards a pop (allowing a 65.8 catch rate) on 250 snaps, he allowed 53 catches on 518 snaps (for an excellent 57% catch rate) with an average of just 9.8 yards per catch. Most importantly, he dropped passer rating while being thrown against him from 124.5 to 75.8, going from easy pickings to elite. He finds himself in a position with far better safety help and a more stout front 7 in Cincinnati than the Dallas 2020 team, which hopefully allows him to continue flourishing. This secondary will be a unit in transition, and they hope Anarumo’s area of expertise allows him to keep communication crisp through that transition.
Special Teams
Evan McPherson is a top 3 kicker in this league already; the kid’s perfect postseason got all of the attention, but he also went 42/47 over the year. That’s a whole lot of offense provided by a rookie! The Bengals went ahead and resigned punter Kevin Huber to a new contract, despite genuinely poor play by him last year. He tied a career low in hangtime. Of course, in the modern NFL, the punter is also the holder, and retaining him purely to avoid regression to Evan McPherson makes logical sense, especially thinking about what the punter switch seemed to do in Miami last year.
How Do We Get The Dub?
Seems pretty simple: hope that the Bengals are sputtering and that the physicality upfront overpowers a newly-formed offensive line. The Dolphins are uniquely suited to guard against Chase and Higgins, as the two players will be covered by Miami’s two lengthy press corners in Byron and Xavien. Javon Holland is the type of safety who can also make the most of opportunities up top in contested situations. But Joe Burrow spent 2021 dissecting all sorts of schemes, and Miami won’t be able to generate a pass rush on confusion. It’s a tough matchup for anyone in the league and, even if Miami is better-suited, no one is safe from that trio. On offense, I like Miami’s chances: I believe the Dolphins offensive line makeover (which includes a coaching staff full of OL guys) to be the superior makeover, and the Bengals will likely struggle to defend the quick passes. Indeed, the Bengals were the NFL’s worst team against first down passes according to DVOA efficiency measures. Tua’s RPO game is perfectly suited to put stress on average linebackers, and the speed on the edges for Miami could prove difficult to defend for a Bengals front that relies on toughness. The Bengals were a much better team at home, so the Dolphins will have to prepare for their best: only New England had better efficiency differences at home as compared to away than Cincinnati. Ultimately, I believe this could be an explosive statement game for Mike McDaniel and the new-look speed offense.
Dolphins 31-28
Dolphins 3-3
