| Projected Record | 10-7, Loss in Playoffs |
| Weighted DVOA Offense*: | 18th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense*: | 19th |
| Early Down DVOA: | 1st Down – 19th, 2nd Down – 22nd |
| Explosive Play Rate*: | Offense – 30th (Run 29th, Pass 27th), Defense – 32nd (Run 29th, Pass 31st) |
| Key Departures: | Chase Daniel QB, DeAndre Carter WR, Richard Rodgers TE, Matt Feiler IOL, Storm Norton OT, Breiden Fehoko DI, Kyle Van Noy EDGE, Drue Tranquill LB, Troy Reeder LB, Bryce Callahan CB, Nasir Adderley S |
| Key Additions: | Nick Williams IDL, Tanner Muse LB, Eric Kendricks LB |
| Rookies to Watch: | Quentin Johnson WR, Derius Davis WR, Tuli Tuipulotu EDGE, Daiyan Henley LB |
Quarterback
How do you convince a QB to take risks? The Chargers enter 2023 with an interesting conundrum at QB, one that the casual fan associates far more with Tua Tagovailoa than the former rookie sensation Justin Herbert. On plays that are almost instantaneously viral, Herbert looks like an artist: high arcing balls to the opposite side of the field, quickfire intermediate throws into the tightest of windows, and absolutely cold-blooded throws late in games. And then there are the numbers, which paint a far different picture. Last season, Justin Herbert tied Aaron Rodgers, Mike White, Daniel Jones, and Mac Jones in yards per attempt, with 6.8. Of the Elite Four in the league right now (Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert), he was by far the lowest, as all others ranked in the top 10 with at least 7.3. In average depth of target, he ranked 20th of 22 qualifiers, above only Matt Ryan and Daniel Jones. Herbert’s 3.1 big time throw percentage* ranked 18th of 22 by PFF, but where he actually shows up with the elite names is in his turnover-worthy play percentage*. His 1.7% is best in the league, followed directly by Jalen Hurts (1.8) and Mahomes/Burrow (2.1). Even with PFF’s blessing for avoiding turnover-worthy plays, Herbert threw 26 TDs to 10 INTs. And, despite a lack of big time throws, he logged his second consecutive 5,000 yard season. He also took a relatively-high 41 sacks. So why is this guy playing like a counting-stats-miracle Tua Cliche? The answer has to do with the offense, as I’ll describe below, but it also has to do with Herbert the person. Mina Kimes has described Herbert with the key phrase “risk-averse” as a player. It’s difficult to square with the QB we see in highlights, one who has no problem whatsoever uncorking the ball anywhere on the football field. But the fact that he can do it doesn’t mean much unless it opens lanes elsewhere on the football field; we’ve now seen five years of Patrick Mahomes taking his own reputation as a gunslinger into attacking cowed NFL defenses with short, targeted throws that explode for yards after the catch due to the space defenses give out of respect for his arm. In Herbert’s first year with Joe Lombardi (2021), he ranked 34th of 44 in target depth on early downs (a great measure of aggressiveness, because a QB doesn’t need to try and get a first down quite yet) but dropped to dead last with 5.6 air yards on such passes in 2022 via Sharp Analytics. That’s a one-dimensional offense. Sharp’s numbers make the point that the issue, far more than any other, is that Justin Herbert targeted RBs too often, throwing throughout the year at the 4th highest rate behind the line of scrimmage, and averaging far less play success when he did check down to runners. I agree with Sharp that coaching is largely to blame here: Herbert would, in many cases, default to letting his RB pick up some yardage rather than stand in to make the big throw. But there are two data points I cannot square with a pure coaching issue: first, the 41 sacks. Defenses pressured Herbert the 3rd most of any QB last season, and his own pressures charged to the QB by PFF (standing in the pocket too long, moving into pressure, etc.) was 12.9%. Among guys who we know as good processors and caretakers, that number looks much different: Burrow is elite at 6%, Cousins at 5%, Prescott under 10%, etc. For years, we thought of this as a Tannehill number, but Tannehill has never actually had a number as high as Herbert last year. Herbert’s number this year was akin to Tua, who had an even 13% of pressures allowed by him. So Herbert invites the same amount of pressure as Tua percentage-wise, but takes a ton of extra hits due to volume (Herbert dropped back to pass far more than Tua in 2022), and thus you get a QB who is desperately trying to avoid putting himself in a difficult spot and checking down to a safe option. The second piece of evidence I cannot square is the fact that, with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field as top options, Herbert had the 3rd best efficiency in EPA* measures and the 3rd best yards per attempt. Either Herbert or his offensive coordinator actually showed signs of aggression with his top two receivers, and do we really believe that the Chargers called an entirely different offense when the two were on the field? Here, it seems like a Herbert problem, as the passing heat map for the season is consistently and wildly conservative through the entire season. The hottest zones on the field sit at or under 5 yards and right at the numbers. Yuck. Some discrepancies in play calling might be expected, but that is the definition of a dude who absolutely must have his guys to feel comfort in himself and his offense. His offense was bad, sure, but if Williams and Allen cause an immediate shift in the entire game flow, my instinct is that the QB making the decisions is ultimately responsible for who gets targeted.
The Chargers must fix Herbert first and foremost, and coaching him out of the conservative slump may cause some growing pains. In this age of football, defined by the Fangio defense, winning from the pocket often means being patient. Can Herbert be both patient and aggressive? Such a balance so often comes exclusively from the creative QBs, the guys like Marino and Mahomes or, to put it in less Mt. Rushmore terms, a guy like Andrew Luck. Herbert himself can be a creator when called upon (again, the highlight plays), but can he create a perfect marriage between structure and creativity? Making matters worse is that Herbert regressed in stable QB metrics*, ones that can be projected year-over-year and typically distinguish the best in the game. He threw in the 50th percentile in terms of efficiency on 1st/2nd down, in the 61st from a clean pocket, and 54th at or beyond the first down mark. Those are average numbers, not metrics that indicate greatness. Those are places where Allen tends to be in the 80th percentile, where Mahomes trends in the 90s, where Tua hit the 90s last year, and where Burrow sat comfortably at the 97th percentile in each. When PFF broke down route concepts, Herbert had some stark differences in each, excelling in the under routes (1st in the league, 27/33 for 176 yards) but just 6/21 on throws over the shoulder and 24/66 on deep balls. It isn’t going well. Herbert’s only efficiency grade in the 70th percentile? Avoiding negative plays. So where can he be unlocked? One idea that could take more shape is in play action. Herbert has been successful there, with 9 big time throws to 1 turnover-worthy play when using play action compared to 15 and 13 respectively without. In counting stats, he threw 10 TDs to 1 INT compared to 16 to 9 respectively. Unfortunately, there are worries here too: Dak Prescott had shockingly similar numbers with Kellen Moore last year and the Cowboys struggled to figure out ways to be better about using play action to launch the ball deep. With the open windows that play action can provide, Herbert can utilize above-average accuracy and an absolute cannon to become a whole new player. So, the questions for Herbert ultimately look pretty similar to last year: does this guy have a weapon he can count on outside of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams? Can he play outside of structure as a part of his game rather than a Break Glass In Case of Emergency? What are the coaches telling him to do and how is he internalizing these lessons? Justin Herbert will emerge from this year either entrenched in the Elite Four or with new, rumbling questions. The answers start in Week One!
Coaching
If last season was any indication, Head Coach Brandon Staley is in deep trouble. After a 2022 offseason spent preparing to plug a leaky run game, Staley’s new-look defense only placed 24th in PFF grading and a mere 19th in weighted DVOA. They allowed the highest rate of explosive plays in the league (the 4th highest run explosives and the 2nd highest pass explosives). For a head coach who was marketed as an architect of the most exciting defense in the league (the 2020 Rams, who led the league in points and yards allowed), the last three years brought little success, even with big names. During the 2022 offseason, J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack were brought in to pair with Asante Samuel Jr. and Joey Bosa respectively, and pundits proclaimed the Chargers as a Super Bowl-caliber unit. The eventual result (a blown 27-0 lead in the Wild Card round to the Jaguars) was an embarrassment. Bosa and Jackson played too few snaps to even qualify for statistical analysis, and fine play from the remaining stars (Samuels, Derwin James, and Mack) couldn’t make up for the pedestrian play of others. Like most coaches floundering, the 2022 results forced Staley to let some of his coaches and coordinators fall on the sword, and now a team struggling to find consistency has two new coordinators to deal with. On defense, Staley’s specialty, the spots were filled through promotion from within. Renaldo Hill left his DC post for a demotion under Vic Fangio with the Phins this year, and Derrick Ansley was elevated from DB coach to take his place. Ansley spent just one season as a defensive coordinator at the college ranks, where he coordinated a surprisingly-improved defense, but was swept out due to scandal. He’ll likely have more of a role in coordinating gameplans as Staley still plans to call the defense. Tom Donatell, a nepo-baby, was called up from defensive quality control coach to DBs. The stakes are high for these men: Staley would be hard-pressed to convince ownership that he should be trusted with one of the best QBs in the league if he cannot supplement Herbert with a competent defense. In terms of scheme, Staley’s 3-4 relies on strong interior linemen that he simply does not have. His defensive scheme works best as a mauling front that allows the star pass rushers to thrive (think Aaron Donald anchoring everything up front), but stopping the run and generating pass rush in 2022 required a high 31.1% blitz percentage (9th in the league). And the team’s best blitzer, Drue Tranquill, will not be on the roster, replaced by an older Eric Kendricks. They are not in a good place schematically.
Meanwhile, Kellen Moore is entrusted with the next stage of Herbert’s development, and fans hope to see shades of his high-flying Dallas offense. Moore posted stellar DVOAs with Dak Prescott at the helm: his offense had the 5th weighted DVOA in 2019, followed by the 25th in 2020 (Dak’s injury season), the 7th in 2021, and the 13th in 2022. He parted ways with the Cowboys due to philosophical differences, as head coach Mike McCarthy desired to call plays more conservatively to allow his marquee defense to control more games. Moore’s stated penchant for the big play and pass-heavy nature is ultimately quite good for the Chargers. Juxtaposed to Herbert’s conservative past described above, Dak Prescott averaged a much more reasonable 8.6 average depth of target and a 4.9% big time throw rate in 2021. Moore’s finest year as a play caller with receiving talent, 2021, does indeed bring hope that we will get answers on Justin Herbert’s ceiling. Moore replaces Joe Lombardi, after Lombardi’s fast start in 2021 (6th best weighted DVOA) bottomed out due to a collapsed run game and injuries up and down the lineup in 2022. Last year, they managed just the 30th best explosive play rate, with neither a run nor pass ranking above 27th. Fixing this team means getting more out of an offensive line and receiving corps to create explosive plays around Herbert, and the Chargers drafted two weapons in Quentin Johnson and Derius Davis to assist. Moore also brings his own protégé, Doug Nussmeier, to be yet another new QB coach for Herbert. Either Herbert takes the next step or massive changes will occur in 2024. While Moore lost his job for being too pass-happy, his run game has actually been fairly efficient: Moore’s team averaged 135 yards per game on the ground in 2022, good for 9th in the league. The Chargers hope that Dak Prescott’s ascent was because of, not next to, Kellen Moore. That bet is likely better than what Joe Lombardi brought last year. In general, Kellen Moore is a good hire: he is undoubtedly a top mind in the league, and has been in high demand for head coaching interviews. The Chargers targeted and recruited him specifically, announcing his hire on the same day as the reporting dropped on Moore’s departure. There will be some questions: as documented above, Moore has had a similarly effective play action game to recent Chargers teams, but a similar reluctance to set up big plays. It’s been years since Moore has had the skill position players needed to maximize that kind of scheme, and his creativity in using his top trio of pass catchers is perhaps the most interesting storyline of Week 1.
Offense
On paper, the offense is the strength of this team and Kellen Moore finds himself in a perfect situation provided the team has their starters available more consistently than last year. This is never a guarantee, especially with the Chargers, who always seem to have a decimated team. On offense in 2022, Herbert did not miss a game, but played the entire year with a rib injury. Mike Williams missed 5 games, Keenan Allen missed 7, Corey Linsley missed 3, Rashawn Slater and Jalen Guyton both missed 15, Trey Pipkins missed 3, and Jamaree Salyer played but was limited with a foot injury for weeks that seemed to be a re-aggravation. The injuries were a recipe for mediocrity. This year, all we can do is chart the Chargers yet again as an explosive team ready to make noise, even with injury inevitability. Starting up front, the Chargers have one of the best offensive tackles in the league in Slater. In 2021, Slater gave up just 26 pressures on 1116 snaps, earning the 11th best pass blocking grade and 10th best run blocking grade among tackles (good for 7th overall) from PFF. Slater is well-rounded and technically savvy, useful in a zone scheme that requires athleticism and a gap scheme that takes more power. He was off to the races again last year, with just three pressures allowed through the 3 weeks he played (against Vegas and the Chiefs, two teams with competent edge rushers) before the biceps tear that ended his season. He’ll pick up right where he left off. The other standout on the line is Corey Linsley, Aaron Rodgers’s long-time center in Green Bay signed two years ago to a big money deal. Over the last three years, Linsley has allowed 24 pressures, which is objectively insane. To give context, he allowed 26 in 2017 alone, a year in which analysts still considered him an above-average starter! He graded out as the best pass blocking center in the league from PFF last year, and he graded #2 in overall offensive grading (he was #1 in 2021!). Linsley is a dependable anchor on the line. He is a much better zone blocker than gap blocker, which is something Kellen Moore will have to consider in deploying his offense. The rest of the line is about replacement level: Jamaree Salyer was forced into the LT spot after Slater went down, and the 6th-round rookie played well in the pass game. He slots in at RG this year. Zion Johnson, the prized 1st-round rookie last year, was disappointing as a pass blocker last year, demonstrating generally raw technique. He is physical in the run game, and playing between Slater and Linsley this year (instead of next to another rookie) could lead to rapid development. That leaves Trey Pipkins III at RT: Pipkins was elevated to full-time last year after three years of spot starting for the Chargers, and the returns were not great. The pass blocking might be stellar this year, but the right side of the line is not yet built to play physically, and Kellen Moore will have to work to ensure his line maintains an acceptable baseline of play through injuries.
At the skill positions, the Chargers have one of the best units in the league when healthy. Austin Ekeler was finally paid as the team’s star RB, a well-deserved bump for the player who netted 109 catches last year. He has 398 receptions over his six year career for 29 TDs. As a runner, Ekeler was middle of the road in every way last year; the undrafted 200-pound player has never been great between the tackles. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were the 18th and 9th best receivers by PFF metrics, as per usual. The dynamic duo are such a fun pairing: Williams is one of the league’s best field stretchers, with 4.5 speed but absolutely insane body control and a suddenness that goes beyond his clocked time, while Keenan Allen is an extremely technical route runner who sustains productivity beyond his years. In 2021, Allen and Williams combined for 45.5% of Herbert’s yards (a similar rate to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in Kansas City that year) even as Ekeler added more than 600. If the 2021 injury luck holds, the Chargers will be in good hands. The third receiver added to the mix is dynamic TCU WR Quentin Johnston, who seems to be a Mike Williams clone: Johnston also ran a 4.5, is also about 6’4” 215, but lacks some of the physicality that has made Mike Williams a productive threat in the NFL. While he may seem at first glance to be a potential 2024 replacement, the Chargers seem invested in allowing Keenan Allen to work inside while threatening defenses on the perimeter with size and strength with both of their outside receivers. It is, in many ways, the approach that the Dolphins took when they tried to pair Devante Parker with Preston Williams, but with the added bonus of a dynamic group after the catch. Johnston was an incredible college prospect, the driving force of a surprising TCU Horned Frogs run to the national championship, often looking like the best player on the field even when playing teams built of 5-star prospects. The Chargers hope he brings an ability to take over games, but he will have this year to be the third or even fourth (Ekeler isn’t going away) option if necessary. Finally, the Chargers got fine play out of Gerald Everett last year, who rediscovered his form from his time with the Rams in the best of the McVay years. He was especially good in the playoff game (a daunting, daunting loss) with 6 catches for 109 yards and a TD. Everett is the perfect low-cost tight end, and rounds out five excellent weapons playing with Herbert.
Defense
Despite the disappointment of last year’s mediocrity, financial obligations have left the Chargers in the position where the only changes will be in coaching. The defensive line returns in its entirety, and will pin its hopes on the two stellar defensive ends. In the three years before injury, Joey Bosa tallied the 13th most pressures in 2021, 14th most in 2020 (in only 12 games, a DPOY-level rate), and 11th most in 2019. The Chargers desperately need that level of consistency, as they had the 26th-most pressures in 2022. With a healthy Bosa in 2021, the Chargers were closer to the middle of the pack. In Bosa’s absence, Mack delivered 59 pressures (good for 20th in the league), and a defense that features both could hit elite production. The worry is in the run: after Mack made at least 33 stops in each of the first 7 years of his career, he’s only managed 39 in 1236 snaps over the last two years. Bosa has always been less reliable in the run game despite his 280 pound frame. The defensive interior leads to real alarm as to how this team will fare against the run: Sebastian Joseph-Day, signed to a multi-year deal specifically to handle this problem, looked listless in run defense in 2022. Next to him, the Chargers will rotate two players below replacement level (Morgan Fox and Austin Johnson) unless 2023 second-rounder Tuli Tuipulotu proves to be ready ahead of schedule. Tuipulotu is versatile enough to play inside and outside. Making matters worse, Eric Kendricks, the only substantial piece added to the defense in the offseason, is Fool’s Gold as a run defender: Kendricks scored a decent run defense grade from PFF after not scoring well since his elite 2019. You never want to pin your hopes for defending the run from metrics derived prior to the global pandemic. Kendricks has also fallen off as a pass defender, allowing a QB rating* of 107.2 and 108.9 in the past two years, a steep falloff from his 60.5 and 74.8 rating in 2020 and 2019. Kenneth Murray, the final piece of the front, had his 5th-year option declined by the Chargers, and is clearly the Austin Jackson of the Chargers (hated, fans demand blood whenever they’re forced to watch him play).
The secondary is a stronger situation (11th fewest passing yards allowed, PFF’s 6th highest coverage grade, 10th best DVOA against the pass), and Staley will be counting on his 2022 coaches to deliver again in an increased role. Individually, this is still a unit far more exciting on paper than by 2022 results. After J.C. Jackson exploded within the man pressure defense of New England (9 INTs in 2021, 8 in 2022, and a career-high 23 PDs in 2022), his first season with the Chargers was a full-on nightmare. Jackson had ankle surgery in August, and the team benched him before a non-contact knee injury ended the year. When the player in question is due around 90 million dollars, this is disastrous. Will Jackson be healthy to start the year, and is he even a fit for a Fangio-style zone-heavy scheme? It’s hard to know. Asante Samuel Jr. on the other side feels far more certain: Samuel had the 12th highest coverage grade of 71 qualifying CBs on PFF and allowed an 80.1 QB rating against (a huge improvement over the 101 of the year prior). Samuel netted 5 INTs in zone and allowing a passer rating of just 51.7, showing a mastery of his defensive scheme. His 11 passes defensed in both of his first two seasons suggest an opportunism in zone that Staley will try to optimize. At safety, Derwin James remains the absolute prototype, a consistent top-10 presence that could play just about any position. Because of his incredible rookie year in 2018, it’s easy to forget James is just 27 and, though his coverage grades at PFF have dropped over the years, each year he has been healthy has delivered a sub-76 QB rating in his coverage, which is incredible. At the other safety and nickel corner, the Chargers will look to get decent play out of some replacement level players: Alohi Gilmore is set to start as the other deep safety while second-year 6th rounder Ja’Sir Taylor and Michael Davis (last year’s solid replacement on the outside) rotate in at corner.
Special Teams
A FanNation report listed kicker as one of the tightest battles on the roster this year. Both Dustin Hopkins and Cameron Dicker were signed for multiple years (Hopkins first in 2021, but his injury in 2022 opened the door for Dicker) and both had excellent seasons. Dicker went 22/24 (including 7/9 above 40 yards) while Hopkins was 9/10 before an injury in week 6 kept him sidelined for the year. Dicker won, so the team traded Hopkins for a late round pick. Punter J.K. Scott is a league average player: his 33 kicks inside the 20 ranked 7th, but he had the 5th lowest average per punt in the league. His long was 60, and he led the league with a 4.71 hangtime average, so he has plenty of leg. The Chargers special teams had a positive DVOA, specializing in those precise punts and putting forward a strong return game. DeAndre Carter is the talented returner, averaging the 12th most yards on punt returns. He had fewer return yards on kickoffs.
Game Prediction
Unless you’re playing a team that is in an all-out tank attempt (and I’m thanking the universe I don’t have to write about the 2023 Cardinals), then Week 1 always brings an air of anticipation and mystery. In most cases, Week 1 is about testing your team and attempting to establish a baseline. Both the Dolphins and Chargers will have clear priorities for the game. For Miami, the object offensively will be to make and find space, both establishing a run game and beating coverage to complete easy passes. The team is likely to lean a little more heavily on underneath routes than we are accustomed to seeing. For the Chargers, the Kellen Moore addition might tempt them to air the ball out further down the field, but with Vic Fangio’s defense, plenty of intermediate routes is the best and most likely plan of action. The Chargers offense will attempt to test Miami’s communication on defense, and will likely succeed a few times given that Miami’s scheme is new and the Chargers have run something similar for years. Defensively, Miami will look to play back in coverage and limit a field-flipping Herbert bomb, utilizing Holland and Elliott all over the field to force Herbert into shorter and shorter passes. The Chargers defense is the most interesting of all: will they dial up the man coverage and pressure attack like last year or is that plan now compromised? Mike McDaniel was clearly unphased by the prospect, mocking the notion of a “Staley Plan” in his press conference on Monday.
Dolphins vs. Chargers comes down to a matchup of “Ours vs. Theirs” in the end, and will be determined by the answers to four questions:
- Which pair of star receivers will go off? (It’s a real toss-up)
- Which team looks explosive in the run game? (Edge: Miami)
- Who bullies who on the line? (Edge: both defenses)
- Which defensive scheme looks more cohesive and puts more pressure on the opposing offense to score? (Toss-up, Chargers up 1-0 when last year’s man coverage is factored in)
Terron Armstead’s injury will complicate question 3, as Tua will need good play out of replacement-level tackles to truly threaten the Chargers deep. If the Dolphins lose, this will likely be a major reason. But it’s a true Week 1: both teams have plenty to prove and only one will feel they proved it. In this case, I’m going with Miami.
Game Prediction: Dolphins 24-17
Season Record: 0-0
NEXT WEEK: New England
* = See Glossary
All season previews can be found here.
