| Projected Record | 8-9 (currently 0-1) |
| Weighted DVOA Offense*: | 27th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense*: | 1st |
| Early Down DVOA: | 1st Down – 25th, 2nd Down – 21st |
| Explosive Play Rate*: | Offense – 3rd (Run 8th, Pass 6th), Defense – 8th (Run 4th, Pass 20th) |
| Key Departures: | Brian Hoyer QB, Damien Harris RB, Jakobi Meyers WR, Nelson Agholor WR, Jonnu Smith TE, Isaiah Wynn OT, Marcus Cannon OT, Yodny Cajuste OT, Joejuan Williams CB, Tae Hayes CB, Devin McCourty S, Nick Folk K, Quinn Nordin K, Jake Bailey P, Michael Palardy P |
| Key Additions: | Trace McSorley QB, Ezekiel Elliott RB, JuJu Smith-Schuster WR, Mike Gesicki TE, Calvin Anderson OT, Riley Reiff OT, Chris Board LB |
| Rookies to Watch: | Jake Andrews IOL, Keion White EDGE, Christian Gonzalez CB, Marte Mapu S, Chad Ryland K, Bryce Baringer P |
Injury Report
Notable Patriots IR list: Tyquan Thornton WR, Riley Reiff OT, Jack Jones CB
Quarterback
Last year, I predicted trouble for Mac Jones after he lost his offensive coordinator and struggled down the stretch in 2021. I was very much correct (as was every analyst in the known universe): Mac took a tremendous step back, and relationships already strained were strained further. Jones finished 22nd in PFF passing grading, sandwiched directly between old Patriot Jimmy Garoppolo and interception machine Dak Prescott. Mac is a first round selection of a proud franchise: consistently finishing in the middle of the pack will not cut it for talk radio shows. When 2022 numbers are broken down, more concerns arise. Here’s a few gnarly ones: on early downs without play action in 2022, Jones ranked a lowly 5.9 YPA according to Sharp Analytics, good for 38th in the league. He passed behind the line of scrimmage at the 6th highest rate in the NFL, a massive overreliance on screens. He was bad against the blitz, throwing for the second worst completion percentage, ahead of only Zach Wilson, and scoring 5 TDs to 4 INTs. Wildly, he attempted the third highest aDOT* against the blitz, meaning dudes are flying at him and he’s like “I’ll beat it over the top!” like he’s old school Big Ben. Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Russell Wilson, and Sam Darnold all had similar aDOTs against the blitz, a real rogues gallery of reckless players. Considering Mac’s below average arm strength, this is not a winning strategy. While Trubisky’s goofiness somehow managed to rank him as the best QB under pressure in the league, Mac was third worst, ahead of only an injured and defanged Kyler Murray and…you guessed it, Zach Wilson. When Zach Wilson is your peer, woe unto you. PFF’s grading in their PFF QB Annual had Mac in the 5th percentile for play under pressure* and literally last in play outside of the pocket*. That’s a player who cannot create something out of nothing. It’s a far cry from Mac’s first career game in 2021, when the Dolphins threw all of their Flores pressures against Mac and he simply stood in the pocket and dealt. Success against pressure often comes from having good and quick schematic answers against the blitz, which the Patriots did not have in 2022. The good news is that Jones was kept relatively clean in 2022, with only Andy Dalton pressured less per game among QBs playing at least 14 games. Mac himself helped that cause by giving up a relatively small amount of his own pressures, hovering around 10%. Mac will rarely invite pressure with poor pocket movement or taking too long to make a decision, one reason to invest in him further as he hopefully acquires more strategies to beat defensive pressure.
But there is another fly in the ointment when it comes to threatening NFL defenses: in 2022, Mac Jones was abysmal in the red zone. Mac threw 8 TDs, behind 27 other QBs. The team trusted him to throw the ball 39 times, which was 27th in the league. New England scored TDs on just 42% of red zone trips, last in the league. The good news for Patriots fans is that Mac Jones’s first game with Bill O’Brien in 2023 featured solid fixes to a few of these issues. Mac threw 3 TDs in the red zone, maximizing double moves (specifically some pretty out and ups) to throw off Philly’s CB aggression. The Patriots still threw a high amount of screens (13 attempts) and less play action (just 8 attempts), but Jones spent most of his time attacking the middle of the field, producing great numbers there: 15/21, 177 yards and 2 TDs to 1 INT off a tipped ball. He was more aggressive in tight windows, with PFF attributing him 4 big time throws, far better than the conservative 2022 campaign. Better play in these areas, especially against a talented defense like the Eagles, is encouraging. Even when not in play action, Mac Jones makes good decisions with the ball that can bolster the team more than most people understood when he came out of college. Less encouraging was his play against the blitz, where Jones again was forced to check the ball down and had 2 turnover-worthy plays* to no big time throws*. Miami, who did not blitz until the end of the game against the Chargers, may be tempted to do a bit more this week.
Curiously, play action remained absent from the 2023 Patriots repertoire, which the Patriots should adjust coming into Miami Week. Mac’s strong play action numbers don’t come from under center, but instead come from RPOs that have become a staple of the league. Sure, Mac only had 78 attempts out of play action in 2022, 25th in the league, but he made the most of them. He had the 5th best adjusted completion percentage* on play action according to numbers from Pats Pulpit, and scored 3 TDs to 1 INT, a ratio that would have been great had it been expanded upon. Averaging 5.5 yards per target on such throws was last in the league among 41 qualifiers (which is, of course, bad), but his 8 yards per attempt was much closer to a middle of the pack thrower, indicating that he could find the open man in play action for YAC*. Mac is a guy who needs the defense to commit one way or the other to be most effective. He will find open receivers by accurately reading pressure points in the defense and utilizing his touch passes to attack those points on the field. Play action moved him toward a more predictable efficiency, but there were still positives without it. Even with a lowly 10 INTs to 11 TDs without play action, Mac kept his turnover worthy play rate on throws without play action to 3%, far below talented players like Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Tua, Aaron Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson. His big time throw rate was shockingly 8th on passes without play action, between Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Part of that is because, even though Mac struggled at processing without the schematic certainty that comes from play action (your reads are set, and defenders more quickly commit to an assignment), he was in the 72nd percentile of all QBs out of a clean pocket* according to PFF. Give Mac time and comfort, and most of all, an opportunity to observe the field and be certain in his decision, and Mac will elevate the team. Maybe he can do more this year: pressured 17 times last Sunday, Jones kept his team in the game against the defending NFC champs. We saw a better Mac Jones in week 1, and the Dolphins need to make him uncomfortable to bottle up an offense that is far more competent than 2022.
Coaching
Bill Belichick is running out of time. At 71, he is still 18 wins shy of Don Shula’s 347 win record. When asked about that milestone, Robert Kraft discussed the desire to remain competitive in 2023. It’s hard to believe the Patriots would move on before Belichick reaches a pinnacle that seems no longer than three years away, but this team was poorly, poorly coached. It started on offense, where Matt Patricia and Joe Judge put together An Idiot’s Guide To The Wide Zone last year. Players with promise (Isaiah Wynn, Damian Harris, Mac Jones for three) suddenly regressed from Pro Bowl caliber to players with little business being on an NFL field. New pieces from recent years, like Devante Parker and Jonnu Smith, were totally invisible. New England was the 27th most efficient offense by weighted DVOA a year after finishing 5th behind a streaky but efficient Jones. 2022 first-round pick Cole Strange did not develop at all, and only Michael Onwenu, a true goon in the run game, seemed to take to coaching (if he needed any at all). Jones was constantly freaking out toward the sidelines. It was ugly. The answer to the crisis of confidence is cronyism, as it always is in the NFL, with Bill O’Brien coming back to New England after cleansing himself from the Houston Experience with a detox as Alabama OC. O’Brien will immediately partner with Mac Jones; he gets a QB coach and coordinator title, but his real job is essentially Fix The Asset. Upon O’Brien’s hiring, Judge was bumped down to offensive assistant (presumably as a cautionary tale), and Patricia disappeared (presumably fired into the sun through a joint effort by NASA and SpaceX, though he did turn up as an Eagles defensive assistant). O’Brien is now familiar with the Alabama offense that made Mac look so efficient in 2021, and will have the ability to layer the RPOs of the college game into the Patriots offense. With plenty of experience in the spread from his days as Deshaun Watson’s czar, the Patriots should play with tempo and precision, utilizing Devante Parker correctly as a physical target, JuJu Smith-Schuster over the middle of the field, and letting a speed guy emerge from Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton. Competence and timing in the short passing game should show immediate improvements, especially if the run game benefits from another year of the great Rhamondre Stevenson. Every position on the staff has mercifully been filled this time around, with Will Lawing joining to coach TEs and Adrian Klemm hired from the college ranks to coach OL. Klemm spent time with the Steelers before clashing with the mercurial Matt Canada, and his move to Oregon coincided with the Beavers unleashing a 12th-ranked rushing attack.
The Patriots house their coaching future on defense, where many bright candidates return. Steve Belichick was the de facto coordinator of the top defense by weighted DVOA, and the Patriots will still bring a pressure-based, man-coverage heavy defense that puts real pressure on timing offenses like Miami. Their speed and youth in the secondary couples with veteran experience, allowing Belichick to move everyone around like chess pieces. Jerod Mayo will also hang around as Belichick’s partner after signing a long-term extension that seems to put him in contention for a promotion to head coach whenever Bill calls it a career. Seen as a stellar leader, Mayo has kept the LB unit humming since 2019, rebuilding the Pats defense into a force again. The Pats defensive brain trust has proven to be fairly conservative with the blitz in play calling, ranking in the bottom half of the year in the last two years. Instead, they let the talented edge rushers work their matchups and let the linebackers move fluidly as an essential piece in coverage. Continuity will serve the defense well, and they again stack up like a top 10 unit barring major injuries. The coach-on-the-field, Devin McCourty, has retired, and it will be interesting to see if that has any bearing on production and cohesion in the secondary. Week 1 was a rain game, but on first watch, there seemed to be relatively few miscommunications.
Offense
Bill O’Brien’s unit must move past the stink of last year toward something that resembles a functioning NFL offense, and achieving something meaningful still feels years away, even with a comeback year for Mac Jones. The Patriots were a bottom 5 offense last year, but their strengths start up front. Michael Onwenu and David Andrews are both top 10 guys at their positions, RG and C respectively. Onwenu has particularly been a gem, playing out the final year of his contract this year firmly entrenched as an excellent run and pass blocker. Last year was his first as a full-time starter and, while actually putting in 1000 snaps led to less explosion in the power running game, he proved to be an anchor with excellent pure physicality. Interestingly for a guy who seems quite physical on tape and weighs around 350, Onwenu is typically better at the zone running scheme, which requires far more athleticism to get upfield and find your block. Andrews, meanwhile, enters year 8 as a great asset for Mac Jones: excellent at calling protections, he’s the brain you want at the helm of any offensive line. His pass blocking took a step back last year, but he’s never been a guy to lean on athletic traits. With further development across the rest of the line and a scheme that is implemented with some rationality in terms of play calling and organization, he should bounce back there. These two are the foundation of an effective Patriots rushing attack, but both picked up lower body injuries last week: as of Thursday evening, both have only put in limited practices. The other set-it-and-forget-it offensive lineman is Trent Brown: the behemoth of a man (6’8” 380, my god) is just immovable as a pass blocker, a traditional LT, which makes him a bit of a liability in the run game. He’s an old school lineman that will probably improve a great deal this year under more competent coaching, but is always a guy that will be a middling tackle in the age of getting guys in space. The problem? He is also out, this time with a concussion, and the Patriots may need to shuffle in swing tackle Tyrone Wheatley Jr., who has never played an NFL game. The two question marks are at LG and RT, with both clear plans offering serious drawbacks. Cole Strange is back at LG after he was massively overdrafted in 2022, a first-rounder projected to be a good sleeper in the 3rd round. The Patriots saw him as Logan Mankins when they picked him, a technician with great physicality that could be an immediate gamechanger in the run game while producing absolutely stellar comfort for the QB in the pocket. It didn’t work. Strange was an average pass blocker (23 pressures compared to 20 for Mankins’s rookie year, though he gave up 5 sacks to Mankins’s 1) but absolutely stunk in the run game. He was particularly poor for the zone offense the Patriots ran in their ground game. Atonio Mafi had to play in Week 1 due to a knee injury to Strange, and was terrible in all phases of the game. At RT, Riley Reiff was signed to solidify the position, but is on injured reserve. Calvin Anderson played the position to start the year and, while he may be the only healthy Patriots offensive lineman, he allowed 5 pressures to the Eagles. The strength of the Patriots offense is, sadly, not ready for this matchup, but the season premieres of Onwenu and Strange would solve a lot.
The skill position players are where the Patriots have their most serious problems on the roster. Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki are the two Dolphins imports, guys that I have serious love for and offer some real physicality at the catch point. They are also guys who do not separate at all when covered. Both were relatively quiet last year. Parker played in 13 games, tallying 31 catches for 540 yards (sneakily the 3rd best yards-per-route-run of his career and his highest yards-per-catch since his rookie year), but the chemistry with Jones was always somewhat lacking. Parker needs a QB who is confident to put up contested balls, and Mac looked elsewhere more often than not. He will be questionable to play. The Patriots, for some reason, deemed it wise to add a similar player in Gesicki. While Gesicki was a standout player during the Flores years, he got the fewest snaps since his rookie season and a career low in yards per catch under Mike McDaniel. Gesicki did, however, tie a career high in TDs, using Tua’s confidence and chemistry (along with excellent scheming by McDaniel) to achieve his redzone potential. If he can do that while adding some plus slot snaps, the Patriots should be happy with his deal. The main import this season, however, is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who comes off a fine season in Kansas City. Yes, the days of JuJu as an athletic target-monster are pretty much done, but JuJu still has inside-outside flexibility, and put up 1000 yards at an 11.6 yards per catch clip last year. He is efficient, tough, and honestly a perfect Patriot. Tom Brady would have gotten him Wes Welker numbers, but he managed just 4 catches for 33 yards in week 1. Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne should be the other two receivers: Bourne is a talented player who found the doghouse last year due to some Patriot Way nonsense, and he delivered a stinker on the field after a breakout 2021. Hopefully for New England, whatever the friction last year between players and coaches melts away, and potentially game-affecting guys like Bourne and Strange can get actual looks toward achieving the desired offensive results. Bourne had an excellent first week, catching 6 of 11 targets for 64 yards and 2 TDs. Boutte, meanwhile, is a 6th round pick out of LSU who, despite possessing good size and speed, could not get his feet down in two key situations that could have beaten the Eagles. He should return to the bench when Parker returns. As far as blue chip talent goes, the Patriots have some serious talent in Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry. Henry dropped a bad 4th down pass last week, but caught all 5 of his other targets for 50 and a TD, including a wild one-hander on a different 4th down. Henry, when healthy, was a truly great player for the Chargers. In 2021, he logged a career high 9 TDs, but was lost in the torrent of terrible offense in 2022. Stevenson, on the other hand, could not be contained. He ran for 1041 yards and 5 TDs, and caught 69 passes for 421 yards last year. He seems on the precipice of an explosion provided the offensive line gets healthier.
Defense
Last year, I wrote that “Undoubtedly, the greatest fear for the Patriots is a leaky defense. After years of consistent front seven play, the front has finally aged out.” These rumors of death were exaggerated: the Pats finished with the best defense according to weighted DVOA. They were stout in limiting explosive runs, and extremely effective in front with a hodgepodge of veterans, developmental players who hit, and newcomers. At edge rusher, Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Josh Uche were each ranked in the top 20 for pressures on the year, with Judon peaking at 8. Uche was 6th in PFF’s Pass Rush Win Rate. On the defensive interior, the Patriots will rotate Wise with Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, and the ascending Christian Barmore. Barmore is particularly worth spotlighting, delivering 23 pressures in 2022 on less than 230 snaps, a strong percentage. In week 1, he was PFF’s highest graded Patriots defender, with 4 hurries and a run stop on the day. Still, the 2022 Patriots offense tallied the 29th fewest plays per drive and 27th shortest time per drive, which means that the defense must prioritize a rotation until the offense shows competence. At LB, Ja’Whaun Bentley was almost Dont’a Hightower-esque in terms of dependability and versatility in the run and pass game (he’s still not a great pass rusher, but he covered well last year and in week 1 of this year). Jahlani Tavai lined up at edge and in the box, turning on an above-replacement LB season, with both run defense and coverage solidly graded by PFF. He took 37 snaps in week 1 and looked very much the same.
But the real genius of the Belichick (Steve and Bill) defense is in the continued deployment of specialists from the secondary. Devin McCourty was a consistent presence at FS, and his retirement opens the door for veteran Jabrill Peppers to move into the position. Peppers provided good returns on 400 snaps in his first year as a change-of-pace rotation piece instead of a starter, but he took 58 snaps in week 1 and was fantastic. He moved all over the field and recorded 6 tackles, one of them a forced fumble of Jalen Hurts. Adrian Phillips will also rotate in, as the Patriots will rely on his veteran smarts to bail out the corners as needed. The other safety, Kyle Dugger, played nearly 500 snaps in the box, and is a coverage mismatch in the Patriots favor against most teams. The Patriots clearly believe in the safety strategy, replacing McCourty with yet another LB/S hybrid in Marte Mapu from Sacramento State, drafted about 50 picks earlier than most projections, showing that classic Patriots belief in a prospect. At CB, the Patriots are again a wealth of options: the Jones Trio (Jack, Jonathan, and Marcus) all gave solid play in 2022, with Jonathan Jones taking the premiere corner role and delivering a passer rating allowed of 76.8. Jack is on injured reserve while Jonathan is questionable with an ankle injury. Jalen Mills, who is the worst Patriot to maintain playing time in my memory, still plays for this team for some reason, and Myles Bryant delivered strong run support from the slot. It is Christian Gonzalez, however, that will earn the greatest amount of eyes this year: Gonzalez is a prototypical corner with extremely fluid movement skills, reminding you more of Xavien Howard than any of the rotating players the Pats have employed since Stephon Gilmore left. He had a near-INT of Hurts on 4th down to give his team one last chance in week 1 where you would have sworn you were watching vintage X. As a team, the Patriots delivered 19 INTs last year, the third best mark, and they have only gotten younger and more versatile. After I jumped the gun last year, I must admit: this is a good defense, one that punked McDaniel twice if we’re being honest. They enter the game shorthanded at corner, but ready across the rest of the defense to chart a new counter to the Mike McDaniel offense.
Special Teams
Nick Folk took a major step back as a reliable kicker last year, going 32/37 on field goals and 32/35 on extra points. He left some serious points on the board. He was decent at 50 and above, nailing 4 of 5, but 10/14 between 40 and 49 yards isn’t good enough. Enter Chad Ryland, drafted in the 4th round out of Maryland. The Patriots actually traded up to secure Ryland, and he has a reputation as a strong kicker in the elements, perfect for Foxboro. Both Jake Bailey and Michael Palardy had down years punting for New England. The Patriots suspended Bailey, now a Dolphin, at the end of 2022 when he was on injured reserve. It was an odd move for the Patriots, who also suspended Jack Jones. Bailey’s agent gave some context, saying that Bailey “never missed any treatments” and fully participated in a grievance to the league. It seemed to be an effort to recoup some guaranteed money that the Patriots promised him in a rich multi-year deal signed in 2022. The Patriots then drafted a punter, Bryce Baringer, in the sixth round, becoming the 2nd team in 30 years to draft a kicker and punter in the same draft. Clearly, Belichick was fed up with his special teams. Baringer is known for strong hangtimes, with specialist consultant Jamie Kohl citing hangtimes of 5.5 and 5.6 seconds in his evaluation of the draft. The NFL is not about just kicking the ball as high as you can: J.K. Scott had the best hangtime in the league last year with 4.71 seconds on average, far from 5.5 seconds. Baringer’s rave reviews may not be realistic, but it must be some kind of advantage to kick a ball into orbit I guess. The Patriots are sure to improve a league-worst special teams DVOA by getting a kicker and punter with some power, but rookie statistics typically lag behind longer-term specialists due in part to the differences in the hashmarks and styles of kicking and punting. Marcus Jones, the Patriots 3rd round pick last year, was a really cool pickup: a weapon in the style of Devin Hester, Jones recorded a receiving TD from 48 yards out, a return TD of 84 yards (for a game winner against the Jets) and had a 69-yard pick six, becoming the first player in 45 years to score in each phase of the game in the same season. Rookie Brenden Schooler was the new special teams ace last year, taking the place of Patrick Chung, and was tied for 8th in the league with 12 tackles.
Game Prediction
After two tightly contested games against conference championship contenders, both Miami and New England have to feel as though this primetime game could make a statement. For the Dolphins, the statement is an arrival against the defenses that most plagued them last year. The Chargers game was salve on a 10-month burn, and the Patriots nearly knocked a Teddy Bridgewater-led Dolphins team out of postseason contention by scooping up two gutting INTs and winning 23-21 at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots held the Phins to 20 points in the game prior, a 20-7 win solely attributable to the defense. Furthermore, primetime was not a friend to Miami last year: the offense struggled against the Chargers and the Steelers, and Tua suffered concussions in the other two major island games (Bengals and Packers). Tua and McDaniel doubters online are typically pointing to these outings as evidence of fragility; Miami seeks to construct a new narrative, and nothing would look better than another 500 yard offensive Laser Light Show. The Patriots, meanwhile, spent an offseason plagued by internal drama, Mac Jones jokes, and general certainty throughout the media apparatus and betting markets that they are destined to lose the division. They responded with a less-than-clean but feisty attempt to knock off the Eagles on a day in which Tom Brady returned to the team to accept his flowers, losing in the last seconds on a failed 4th down conversion. With a win, the Patriots can buy their way back into the AFC discussion.
For Miami, the priority is to adjust to whatever new wrinkle Belichick has found. All season, I will be demanding an improved short passing game to stretch opponents horizontally, but McDaniel’s base offense now happens at 15 yards from the line of scrimmage and we all need to process that emotionally. Mac and the Patriots, meanwhile, must find a way to run the ball effectively with a banged-up offensive line. They struggled against Philly, but that defensive line is miles ahead of Miami. New England does not want a shootout, they want a murky defensive struggle that comes down to 1 or 2 plays. For Miami to win, either put the Patriots in a two score deficit or, if that task proves impossible, play it safe and let Tua nickel and dime his way to a FG or four. With a head coach allergic to safety, we should be in for a fun and frustrating Sunday night.
Last week, I left you with four questions. This week, I have :
- Can the Dolphins offensive line keep Tua as unbothered as week 1? (Unlikely, but let’s see how they reshuffle.)
- Can the Miami defense fix the run fit issues that plagued them in week 1? (Not unless Fangio schemes it up better. I’ll believe it when I see it.)
- Does New England have schematic answers for both the banged-up OL and the outmatched corners? (No. And this is why I’m predicting a win.)
Terron Armstead theoretically returns this week, and the injury report looks sunnier for Miami up and down the roster. They’re another week closer to a cavalcade of CB reinforcements. Now, we shan’t be having any major national embarrassments, shan’t we?
Game Prediction: Dolphins 31-17
Season Record (Taylor Picks): 1-0
NEXT WEEK: Denver
* = See Glossary
