| Projected Record | 4-13 (ACTUAL: 0-5) |
| Weighted DVOA Offense* (2023) | 30th |
| Weighted DVOA Defense (2023) | 29th |
| Early Down DVOA (2022) | 1st Down – 29th, 2nd Down – 12th |
| Explosive Play Rate* (2022) | Offense – 6th (Run 16th, Pass 4th), Defense – 18th (Run 20th, Pass 17th) |
| Key Additions | Andy Dalton QB, Miles Sanders RB, D.J. Chark WR, Adam Thielen WR, Hayden Hurst TE, Justin McCray IOL, DeShawn Williams DI, Shy Tuttle DI, Justin Houston EDGE, Deion Jones LB, Kamu Grugier-Hill LB, Vonn Bell S, Matthew Wright K |
| Key Departures | Sam Darnold QB, P.J. Walker QB, D’Onta Foreman RB, Andre Roberts WR, Rashard Higgins WR, Preston Williams WR, D.J. Moore WR, Pat Elflein IOL, Matt Ioannidis DI, Cory Littleton LB, Damien Wilson LB, T.J. Carrie CB, Juston Burris S, Sean Chandler S, Zane Gonzalez K |
| Rookies to Watch | Bryce Young QB, Jonathan Mingo WR, DJ Johnson EDGE |
Injury Report
On IR: Ian Thomas TE, Brady Christensen IOL, Henry Anderson DE, Marquis Haynes Sr. LB, Shaq Thompson LB, Jaycee Horn CB
Quarterback
Who is Bryce Young? The league will be watching the newest top QB with keen-eyed interest this year, as Young is far from the perfect prospect that a guy like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck was coming out of college. First, Young is tiny: standing in at 5’10” and 194 pounds, he looked slender and slight even in his college days. Remember how Tua was small coming out? Listed at 6’1”, Tua is really about 6’0” even, but he had at least 25 pounds over Bryce Young in every season he’s ever played. One of the first questions Young will have to face is whether or not he even makes it to week 6 without injury. While he is slated to play this week, he has already missed one start. One reason the Panthers were encouraged to select him was that they believed that they had a fine offensive line, which we will discuss later, but Young will take his licks like all QBs do. How will an outlier-sized body handle such onslaughts? Ultimately, because of both his physical makeup and the idiosyncrasies required to keep him playing at a high level, Young has a very strange map of targets*. In the red, frequently targeted areas, you can literally see the screens, hitches, and RPO over routes Young likes to throw and the sides to which he likes to throw them. Most pro QBs have their preferred areas and route concepts, giving them a sort of symmetry and logic on the map. Not Young: he has a relatively hot zone on hitch routes to his outside receiver, but an ice cold zone toward the same route in the slot. He threw a nuts amount of quick screens to the right, but did no such thing to the left. Ten yards up the right hashmark is hot, but at seven yards on the same side? Ice cold. Like any college QB, Young sticks with his mismatches, his coaching points, and stays to what makes him comfortable. When you’re playing against future tax brokers, that makes plenty of sense. In the NFL, now, he will have to elevate and quickly, but the early returns show he has yet to find a comfort with certain routes or players. He will also have to do so with less time than ever before: Young took around 2.9 seconds to throw in college, but that will not work in the slightest with the kind of pass rushers that we see in the NFL. The rookie will have to change or he’ll take unnecessary hits and throw far too predictably. Can he do that without sacrificing the pocket improvisation that allows him to find windows through his substantially-taller OL? These are the questions that will define his rookie year. Thus far, Young has been one of the worst QBs in the NFL for precisely these reasons. He has 7 turnover worthy plays* to just 3 big time throws* and, if my eyes are correct, those mostly came in garbage time. Among qualifying passers by PFF, Young is just behind Desmond Ridder as the worst, with a 49.3 grade*. He has the worst passer rating in the league. His time to throw* remains the same, 2.91 seconds, a poor number for his own safety and the 9th longest in the league despite a lack of rushing threat. His poor production is not due to his receivers, who have dropped just 1.1% of passes. He has the most penalties in the league because he has yet to grasp intentional grounding rules when he gets into trouble, which almost cost the team a safety against the Lions. Under Young, the Panthers have one of the worst DVOAs in football, and the simplified concepts don’t seem to be helping the young player slow down.
The bright side of Bryce Young, however, is that there is precious little to question about the tape. The young Alabama star was fantastic in college, absolutely magical at breaking the pocket and making plays happen while still captaining a highly efficient version of the Nick Saban RPO game that made Alabama perennial champions before NIL rules diluted their talent pool. Amongst QBs in college, Young graded by PFF in the 94th percentile from a clean pocket, but also the 97th percentile outside the pocket and the 82nd percentile under pressure*. Those numbers highlight that you want Bryce Young as your QB, situation be damned. He graded in the 79th percentile on play action, dinged only because his average depth of target on play action was somewhat low (that’s a product of the Saban RPO game, which focuses on slants and short over concepts). He is a shotgun QB pure and simple, attempting only 17 passes from under center last year, and how the Panthers handle this will be fascinating. There’s an argument to be made that the Panthers would be wise to just commit to a full-time RPO game like Tua in 2021 while Young finds his footing. I find that unlikely, but the Panthers don’t have a Christian McCaffrey anymore to build a potent run game around, and the RPO could be useful in the meanwhile. In classic Tua Alabama fashion, Young is a wizard throwing the ball to receivers with timing and anticipation: he went 102 for 144 on throws with a horizontal lead* in 2022 according to PFF, with 18 TDs and 2 INTs. Receivers catch the ball on time with room to motor up the field. His supporting cast in Carolina may not yet feature the real star receiver that can capitalize on these gifts, but Young is a good bet for all of his options to continue gaining production. He’s a guy receivers will love provided he has the physical tools to stay healthy and keep the offense moving efficiently. To wrap discussion on Young, he has a great personality from all that we’ve seen through Alabama. He’s humble in interviews, fun to watch on the field, and teammates have found his lack of rah-rah QB bullshit a welcome thing from a rookie. He’s laid-back and even-keeled, and he maintained that aura through a challenging season at Alabama. Here’s hoping we see the kid out there, having fun, and making plays in the NFL this year. Unfortunately, none of these bright-side predictions have come true for Young, and the game looks too fast for him to capitalize on any of the strengths. The glimmers are there, though: despite taking a long time to throw, Young has not taken too many pressures and has navigated the pocket well when he did. He has taken just 12 sacks on 66 pressures*, which is pretty good when you consider Lamar Jackson’s 59 pressures and 15 sacks. Right now, Panthers fans are just looking for the glimmers.
Coaching
It’s all new in Carolina with Frank Reich returning to the league for one last shot at building a contender. Reich spent years stuck on the mediocrity merry-go-round, saddled with a new aging QB in all of the final years of his tenure: he never once started a season in Indianapolis with the same starting QB as the year prior. In his only year with a true franchise QB, Reich stormed the postseason, winning 9 out of 10 with a resurgent Andrew Luck to make the postseason in 2018. Luck retired that season, startling the organization and forcing a move to Jacoby Brissett. Brissett was replaced by one final year of Phillip Rivers (leading to another playoff appearance and loss to the Bills), which led to Carson Wentz and closed with Matt Ryan. The Colts fired Reich halfway through last year after a first half of the year filled with bad offensive line play; Reich’s season culminated in a QB switch to Sam Ehlinger and a 26-3 beatdown by the Patriots. The Colts did not get better with Jeff Saturday as interim coach, ending the season as the worst team in offensive DVOA and hitting the reset button with a new QB in Young’s peer Anthony Richardson. Reich ended his tenure on a low note, but before that, he only had an offense lower than 13th in DVOA once, when Brissett was the sudden starter in 2019. Reich is NFL scotch tape: before holding the Colts together, he coordinated the Eagles and propelled the Nick Foles Miracle Run in 2017. Now, Reich actually has a young franchise QB for the first time in his head coaching career, as the Panthers traded up to acquire Bryce Young. They lost a 2nd rounder this year, and will have given up both a first and second rounder next year (not to mention star WR D.J. Moore) for the privilege. Reich’s challenge, after years of coaching big-armed tough guys (Rivers, Wentz, and Luck), will be to find an offensive plan for his sub-6’, sub-200 pound starter. He cleaned house at skill positions, bringing in Miles Sanders from Philly, Adam Thielen on one last run from Minnesota, and D.J. Chark from the Lions. The Panthers felt confident in returning their offensive line, which seems to be a real issue now. The goal for Reich will be to instantly build momentum for his young QB, allowing him a true audition and safe development point. Reich is intent on being QB-friendly, both in scheme and personnel. Reich also comes with a mostly-cleaned house across the coaching staff, drawing a varied list of names. He kept James Campen to coach OL after the Panthers line was remarkably sturdy with young pieces last year, but otherwise added Parks Frazier and Josh McCown to work with the passing game and QBs respectively, Shawn Jefferson from Arizona to work with WRs, Duce Staley to serve as assistant head coach and RBs coach, Thomas Brown from the Rams to make the whole thing run as OC, and Jim Caldwell finally exiting retirement to assist as an overall architect. One exciting part about Reich is his ability to adjust to his circumstances, and build buy-in across many different experiences and systems. His offense feels tailored to his QBs, his veteran additions have typically been well-adjusted to his team, and his staff lacks a lot of the cronyism stink so many other staffs have in the NFL. The Panthers are one big question mark schematically, but the answer (provided Young has juice) had the chance to lean positively. Unfortunately, as with Young, none of the promise has been realized. If the offense is QB-friendly, it sure doesn’t seem to be friendly to this QB. The Panthers spent the first four weeks disgustingly predictable, running for nothing on 1st down before passing twice short and punting. Yes, these are valuable reps for the rookie trying to learn consistency and structure, but asking the rookie to play against defenses who expect his every move could demolish his confidence. Young is making all of the rookie mistakes (throwing INTs to a dropping corner in cover 2, dialing in too close on the receiver he wants, missing backside safeties reading his eyes to fly in and make a play) and the lack of creativity is worsening things. Making matters worse is that the offensive line isn’t nearly as mean as it was marketed. For all of the brilliant minds and experience in Carolina, there’s no cohesive vision. Week 5 was their best thus far, opening up the playbook on 1st down and involving rookie Jonathan Mingo on more RPOs. This is the path forward, and the Panthers may not see it until it is too late.
Defensively, Ejiro Evero joins after a hard year in Denver enduring the incompetent Nathanial Hackett disaster. Denver finished 16th in weighted DVOA, a slight rise from Vic Fangio’s final year as head coach there. Despite some questions around opponent quality and efficiency, Evero was known as a strong leader and finished 7th in yards allowed. Reich, for what it’s worth, claimed that he was “not hiring the man; I was hiring the leader…He could coach any scheme he wanted.” The Panthers will run a 3-4, with the scheme’s ultimate architect Dom Capers following Evero from Denver to serve as a mentorship figure. This is perhaps the biggest change in Carolina, as departing interim coach Steve Wilks ran the traditional 4-3, though the Panthers have spent most of their season in nickel. Provided the edge rushers can develop their skills as run defenders, this transition should be easy. This has not happened: Brian Burns, Justin Houston, and Yetur Gross-Matos have seen running backs slice them up with ease, running right past their pass rush attempts. Players do not seem to be buying into coaching, seemingly focusing on their own pursuit to the QB. Evero has institutional support for his changes, with the Panthers investing in Shy Tuttle and DeShawn Williams to transform the defensive line into a far more physical unit. Most of Evero’s work will be in the secondary, where he made his name with the Los Angeles Rams. Evero inherits a secondary of high-drafted, promising talents (CJ Henderson, Jeremy Chinn, and Jaycee Horn) that he will be tasked with coaching up in a new scheme. Unfortunately, Evero lost Horn early to injury. Even with the talented Steve Wilks, the Panthers were a bottom five defense in the league last year, and even average would be an accomplishment. Like Reich’s work with Bryce Young, Evero is here for a long-haul project in turning around this team. Complicating matters is the fact that Evero is someone many project to be a head coach sooner rather than later, and progress from his unit may mean a restart to the defensive project. Evero, in fact, interviewed for the Panthers position before the job ultimately went to Reich (another feather in Reich’s cap that he can make these types of situations work). This is perhaps a silly worry given how terrible they have been to start the year. The Panthers are rebuilding, and the two men most responsible for the rebuild will hope to start their tenure on a positive note. The first 5 weeks are grim omens.
Offense
There’s no sugar-coating this, the Panthers offensive unit is troubling in Frank Reich’s first season. During the draft process, optimistic predictions for the Panthers included the expectation that they would have a mauling offensive line, a la the 2022 Lions, that has failed to materialize. Ikem Ekwonu is the key cog in the Panthers offense, showing relatively strong play in 2022 after a nasty Welcome To The NFL week 1 against Myles Garrett and the Browns. 4 of his 27 pressures on the year came against Garrett (with 2 of his 6 sacks allowed to boot), and he was generally put on skates all game. The resilient Ekwonu rallied throughout the year to relatively average numbers. OTs generally take a few years to find their footing, and Ekwonu should do the same: he’s mean in the run game, and should be a cornerstone for years to come. He hasn’t taken the desired step forward, maintaining a similar rocky pressure rate* (12 allowed) while improving the run blocking. The other tackle, Taylor Moton, has been starting since 2018 and has always delivered solid-to-great pass blocking. Seriously, he was one of the most consistent players in the NFL, good for a thousand snaps and fewer than 30 pressures each and every year. Not so this year! Moton has already allowed 18 hurries, 1 more than THE ENTIRE 2022 SEASON! Young is not helping matters here, as his longer time to throw and tendency to drift right hurts the numbers for Moton. Austin Corbett signed a $9 million dollar a year deal in 2022 and, fresh off of good play with the Rams, delivered another top tier season at guard, with average run blocking and a phenomenal 15 pressures over the course of the whole season. He’s a dependable right guard and a building block for Reich, but he has yet to take the field this year due to the lingering effects of an ACL tear in the final game of the 2022 season. He is practicing this week, and may make his debut. Bradley Bozeman was an instant contributor in the run game when inserted into the lineup in week 10 as a starter, and the Panthers fielded a far better record (5-3 vs. 2-6) record with him in the lineup. I would never claim one center changed the complexion of a team, but the Panthers certainly benefited from his run blocking. This year has been more mediocre for Bozeman in the run game, and his 10 pressures allowed is tied for 7th most among all centers. Brady Christensen, yet another fine pass blocker as a former standout LT in college, held his own at LG, and certainly would be a fine starter with plenty of room to grow on any other NFL team. Unfortunately, Christensen is out for the year with a biceps injury. He was replaced by rookie 4th-round-pick Chandler Zavala, who has delivered play so bad that I can only call it startling. Zavala leads the league in pressures allowed with 28 AS A GUARD, the easiest pass blocking position. He boasts a 9.6 pass blocking grade which is, no joke, the lowest I’ve ever seen from PFF. Sadly, Zavala suffered a neck injury last week that stopped play for a sizable amount of time and looked scary. Thankfully, he is back with the team, who now needs him to never take another snap until he works into NFL shape. Calvin Throckmorton, a 2020 Saints undrafted free agent who has done little in his NFL career, has held down RG respectably, with an NFL-caliber 6 pressures allowed and mostly mediocre scores from PFF. Mediocrity is what this line needs right now. I think it is reasonable to expect a line with Corbett at LG and Throckmorton at RG this week. The biggest sign for optimism in Carolina is a tire fire right now.
But don’t get me wrong, the skill positions are a real problem for Carolina. Miles Sanders is a fine committee back, but the relatively rich $7-mil-per-year he got greatly overestimates his value. Sanders is an explosive athlete with a nearly-1,500 yard season fresh under his belt. The problem is that those numbers were greatly inflated by the combination of a great offensive line and Jalen Hurts’s own threat with his legs in Philadelphia. Now in Carolina, Sanders gets a worse line and a far lesser weapon in the run games than Hurts. Look no further for nauseating evidence of Sanders’s limitations than his 21 catches last year for 81 yards. I did not miss a number there. He caught 21 passes for less than 4 yards per clip. He was PFF’s worst receiving back by a mile, worse than the shell of Ezekiel Elliott. For a QB who will need a weapon to which he can dump off passes if the timing is off, Sanders is not a happy answer. And this year, he isn’t running the ball much better: Sanders averages just 3.1 yards per carry, has more lost fumbles (2) than TDs (1), and has forced just 5 missed tackles. Young has relied on him as a checkdown and option and how do you think that’s going? 15 catches for, I kid you not, 81 yards. Chuba Hubbard has actually been better, and may see more use this week. Hubbard has a very strong 3.49 yards after contact per attempt*, and has forced twice as many missed tackles as Sanders on half the attempts. Reich would be wise to bench Sanders, contract be damned. Hayden Hurst at TE is not a playmaker, either, as he has yet to match his pedestrian numbers from Baltimore and offers nothing as a run blocker. Both positions seem destined for average play at best. The Panthers also traded away their best weapon in D.J. Moore to get their QB in this year’s draft. Moore may not have delivered on his 93 catch, 1,157 yard season from 2021, but he set a career high in TDs last year and has a good track record, even with poor QB play. Instead, the Panthers turn to two veterans in D.J. Chark Jr. and Adam Thielen. The lesser D.J. comes off of an injury-plagued one-year deal in Detroit, where they unlocked him a bit by targeting him more downfield. Chark will contribute, but his fit with Young and the offense will remain to be seen. Right now, they have not connected much, but the downfield trend continues: Chark is averaging 17.1 yards per catch on 10 catches (he has been targeted 19 times, so this is not an efficient connection by any means). Thielen is a shell of himself, and looks like the speed is gone. He set career lows in both yards-per-route-run and yards after catch last year, which is humbling for the Minnesota great. This year, however, Thielen has had a bit of a renaissance in the slot, his first year ever with over 60% of snaps in the slot (71.6% to be precise). His yards-per-route-run is back up to 1.88, he has a YAC average of 4 yards per catch for the first time since 2019, he has caught 82.6% of his targets, and his 394 yards are 11th in the league and twice as much as anyone on his team. One final nugget worth mentioning is that Thielen caught 4 of 19 contested balls* in 2022, which is terrible, but his move to slot means he’s only had 3 attempts at contested passes (he only caught 1). Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo are the last of the skill position players and, while both were predicted to break out, neither has consistently gotten open this year. Marshall has been relegated to the bench for the most part while Mingo is coming off the best game of his rookie season, a pedestrian 5 catches for 48 yards, where he nevertheless looked like a mismatch weapon in the RPO game. Though he is simply a gadget player, I have to mention Laviska Shenault Jr., who the Panthers refuse to push out of the lineup. Shenault has 15 touches for 81 yards this year, decent enough, but the designed touches are wasted opportunities for Young to learn and tend to put him into third downs more often than not. Shenault had a much more dynamic year in 2022, gaining 12.4 YAC per attempt*.
Defense
When Luke Kuechly showed up to read his shitty Draft Day poem, I had a sudden Brain Blast: the Panthers once had a good defense. Like a really good defense. The 2013-2017 Panthers all had top 10 DVOA finishes, with stalwart run defenders like Kawann Short, Luke Kuechly, and Thomas Davis, and willing physical corners like early-career Josh Norman and late-career Peanut Tillman (love a dude named Peanut, who became relevant again after rumors that he told the Bears their defensive coordinator was a pervert because he is literally an FBI agent now. Only the last part is confirmed). Today’s Panthers are boring on defense, so boring in fact that PFF forgot to update their defensive scheme from a 4-3 to 3-4 on their projected starters page: I had to do legwork!! They run a scheme without many big names, turn in pedestrian run marks, and look like a bottom five unit in coverage. The new look Panthers, focusing this year on building their offense, seem determined to get a defense together that simply will not lose games as they embark on a multi-year rebuilding project that will probably start a little boring. The new-look 3-4 front currently projects Shy Tuttle, the dependable Saints run defender, to anchor the nose. The 300-pound NT from New Orleans was a huge help to Saints LBs as an undrafted agent, taking more snaps each year while bettering his missed tackle rate* and run stop numbers*. The signing raised eyebrows on the numbers (3 years, $6.5 million average, when PFF projected him to be more of a $4 million a year guy) but you cannot run a 3-4 without a dependable nose. It cannot be done. This team wants to be passable, and that means a veteran nose as you build through the draft: I like the signing just fine. The only worry is how the player fares outside of a familiar offense: his play has been uneven this year as the defense continues to be learned. At one of the 3-4 end spots, Derrick Brown made the leap to elite in all phases of the game last year, finishing top 20 in pressures from the inside and top 10 in run stops despite being the only man in need of double teaming. Brown has been a bit more up-and-down this year, with 2 games of 4 pressures (Seattle and Detroit last week) and 2 games with no pressures (New Orleans and Minnesota, surprisingly). At the final DE spot, DeShawn Williams was brought in to compete with Henry Anderson for the role. Williams has a cool story, bouncing around on various practice squads (including Gase’s Dolphins) before a CFL stint, until being plucked up by Fangio and getting 2 sacks in the Tua Beatdown of 2020. Ejiro Evero also liked the scrappy end, giving him a lot more time over the tackle in the 3-4. He’s been average (which is, remember, the goal) but has not seemed to take to the defense as you would hope a cronyism signing might. Less average are the two edge rushers: Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos are both above 6’5” athletic freaks, with Burns the undersized Jason Taylor type and Gross-Matos the middle-schooler-who-didn’t-grow-into-his-body type. It has been a tough road for Gross-Motos, the highest-drafted edge rusher after Chase Young in the 2020 pandemic draft: with just 60 career pressures and 8.5 sacks in three years despite ample playing time (and terrible PFF grades against the run), Gross-Matos has play that screams bust. Burns, meanwhile, is a scrappy 250 pounds at 6’5” and supposedly played in college at 225 (wild!) He’s wicked fast, racking up at least 7 sacks each year including last year’s 12.5 sacks. PFF doesn’t care for him as a run defender, and that’s likely fair, but this is a guy you bookend with a Cameron Wake type on the other side and let him run around tackles all day. The Panthers clearly hoped to do that in signing 13-year veteran Justin Houston but, despite a solid 9 pressures, he no longer has the physicality for run defense. The problem for Burns is that the pressures aren’t coming to supplement the run defense lapses: he is rushing the wide-9 style, where he rushes as quick as he can and tries to beat the LT to the spot. Unfortunately, a lack of interior pressure has allowed QBs to step up on him all year. Against the Dolphins, who have only been contained by disciplined edge rushers and blitzers clogging outside lanes, these dudes are a huge issue.
Behind the front 5, good veterans will merge with homegrown talent. It’s hard to believe LB Shaq Thompson is not yet 30, as he’s been delivering good snaps for the team since the 2015 great defenses. He went to the Cam Newton Super Bowl and played a hell of a game! It’s a Ring of Honor career for Thompson, who set a career high in tackles and run stops, as the team desperately needed him to do in 2022. Unfortunately, he went down for the year soon into the 2023 campaign, and was replaced by Old Dolphins Friend Kamu Grugier-Hill. Grugier-Hill is best as a nickel coverage LB, and is struggling against the run. Next to him, Frankie Luvu is a fascinating name: an undrafted free agent who played unspectacularly for the Jets (thanks, Frankie), Luvu was released and immediately exploded on a deal for peanuts with the Panthers in 2021: he could defend the run and rush the passer from the edge or box, and the Panthers gave him a 2-year, $9 million extension. That versatility was again a plus in 2022, as he delivered 63 run stops as a full time starter. Luvu is a fan favorite among the chronically online analytics-driven analysts, who love a guy who can do it all (Justin Herbert salutes you, analysts). Luvu is struggling with missed tackles* this year, possibly due to the lack of Thompson to bail him out: his 9 misses are 4th worst in the NFL. At safety, the Panthers signed Vonn Bell to provide a veteran direction after Jeremy Chinn did not deliver on the promise of his 2021 season. Bell is the poster child for veteran consistency; he was always in the right spot in Cincinnati, and when watching film, I can see him chewing out the corners who are out of position. They’re asking him to do too much right now as the rest of the team learns. The other safety, after the team cut Dolphins vet Eric Rowe and Xavier Woods pulled a hamstring, is now Sam Franklin Jr., who is most famous this year for being hit into the stands by Zach Charbonnet on a goal line run. The video is worth looking up, the dude is in the picture and then he is no longer in the picture. It was a mean thing to do to the 2020 undrafted rookie: Franklin has actually been quite good at stepping up into the box and has limited catches. At CB, the foundation is still being built. Last year, Chinn and Myles Hartsfield manned the slot, delivering both terrible rates of tackling AND passer ratings of over 100 with few pass breakups between them. Teams absolutely gashed the Panthers out of the slot against two guys who are listed on the roster as a safety: Steve Wilks kept the team together, but his faith in the corner room didn’t even extend to letting a third one see the field as a slot. This year, Troy Hill is an actual corner in the slot, and he’s delivered passable results, only allowing a 72.7 passer rating to opposing QBs*. Chinn is also down there, playing the star role both in the box and in the slot. He is a quick and ferocious presence on the football team, with 9 run stops, a sack, and 2 pass breakups. Coming into the year, the corners were Jaycee Horn and…someone else before Horn’s injury. The Panthers refrained from bringing in anyone to challenge draft bust C.J. Henderson and Donte Jackson. Horn, to his credit, played well in his 13 starts, picking off 3 passes while allowing no TDs and kept his completion percentage below 60%. At 6’1” 200, he’s exactly the kind of lengthy man defender you would project to eventually be a top 10 guy, and he is a foundational piece in Carolina as they build a competitive defense, but this is his third consecutive year missing 4 or more games, this time with a “serious” and “freak” injury, according to Reich. He will not return against Miami. Donte Jackson was the better of the two options, but he allowed a 76% completion percentage on the same amount of targets as Horn (they had the same amount of targets despite Jackson playing half the snaps because teams identified him as the weak link). C.J. Henderson played most of the year, and the former Jaguars 1st-round bust was targeted a whopping 76 times, allowing nearly 70% to be complete, and defended fewer passes (3) than he allowed TDs (5). Out of 72 corners with more than 637 snaps, Henderson was the 4th worst by PFF metrics. This year, both are again chronic underperformers, with Jackson allowing a QB rating of 125.1 and Henderson 132.6. Jackson allows 18.4 yards per catch (with a long of 65) while Henderson allows 13.3 yards. This is a game where the Dolphins can throw all day and, provided protection holds up, they’ll have some fun.
Special Teams
At kicker, Eddy Pineiro steadied the ship after longtime kicker Zane Gonzalez was injured early in the season. His initial returns were not so great: he missed two game-winning attempts against the Atlanta Falcons. Those were, however, his only two misses of the season. He hit both attempts from 50+ last year, and earned the right to continue in Carolina. This year, he is 9/10 on FGs, perfect from inside 50. The great Johnny Hekker remains in Carolina after a cap crunch forced the Rams to dump the special teams asset last season. The 33-year-old put up the 7th highest average per punt, and the team backed him up for the 3rd best net average in 2022. His 39 punts inside the 20 was good for 2nd behind Tress Way. He has had a tough 2023, with a lower punt distance than you’d hope for considering how often the Panthers punt from their own territory. The Panthers are another team without a talented special teams Ace, but their coverage teams mostly held together. Laviska Shenault Jr. is the return man, and he was simply atrocious last week, burying the team in field position against the Lions. Ihmir Smith-Marsette handled punt returns and he is just average, dependable in not muffing kicks, but just a 5.8 yard average per return.
Game Prediction
After a good ol’ fashioned beatdown on the Giants, complete with physical defense and big offensive plays, the Dolphins seem to be right back on track. They have a week to test out their team against one of the worst teams in football, and a team that is still searching for win #1 through 5 games. A host of players opened their practice window, and some may even play: Jeff Wilson Jr. has been ready (according to his agent), Robert Jones is cross-training at guard and center to take the Liam Eichenberg spot, Nik Needham has had another 5 weeks to rest post-Achilles injury from 2022, and Jaelan Phillips will log another week of limited practices as the team gets closer to playing the star pass rusher again. Connor Williams is being rested after playing last week, sitting out Wednesday with a groin. Da’Von Achane is the one we will miss: his electric Rookie of the Year caliber season is on hold as he manages a knee injury that likely does not need surgery. These players want to play because there is a certain shine that playing in the #1 offense (#1 in BOTH passing and rushing) can give to your career. You could hear it from Chase Claypool, who hopes to suit up this week and told media that he was deeply grateful to be in Miami after struggling with the losing in Chicago. Speedy players across the league are probably envious of Claypool, whose tantrum landed him in the best situation in the league.
It’s a tinkering week for Miami, as can be the case when a hapless opponent comes to town. Christian Wilkins and Zach Seiler finally turned on the light together against the backups of the Giants offensive line; sure, the competition wasn’t impressive, but the two played within the scheme, shutting down run lanes AND getting their pass rush in. There’s a recipe here, especially when Phillips returns. Let’s see it again! Claypool may get a designed touch or two, or used as a decoy, anything works! Tua has two of the worst outside corners in the league to torch, and can wash away two silly interceptions from the week prior. With a trip to Philadelphia scheduled next week, Regular Season Football That Looks Postseason is coming. I could talk about how the Dolphins must account for Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu on the blitz, Jeremy Chinn hovering to get Tua on the inside throws like last week, or ask if the Dolphins might be underestimating their secondary gaffes to the tune of a Thielen game, but the reality is that this is not a good matchup for the Panthers. They struggle to secure the perimeter on offense (a theme for Miami through every win so far) and their popgun offense is exactly what Fangio will lull them into doing until they happen to notice they’re down by 3 TDs.
This is a week to stay disciplined, to stay motivated, to shake off complacency with new exciting pieces. This is a week for optimism, a week to carry a division lead into a matchup with a potentially-undefeated opponent. This is also my anniversary, and I’ll watch the game on Monday. Another day of business in the National Football League.
Prediction: Dolphins 28-10
Season Record (Taylor Picks): 4-1
NEXT WEEK: Philadelphia Eagles
* = See Glossary
